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how many nsx still exist

Brylek, GREAT project. Thanks for taking the initiative on this and for all your data gathering efforts. blue_myriddn, fantastic visualization. Thanks to you as well.

About the "early years"...I know we are talking an order of magnitude when comparing 91 production volume vs. each of the last few years so perhaps it isn't practical for this project to look at the early years in the same way as you have done for the last four. But we could still come up with some very reliable estimates regarding number of vehicles on the road with no accidents vs. those with accidents vs. totaled, even though a state-by-state break-down might not be feasible. What about surveying a random sample of those years' VINs.

Earlier in this thread someone posted the idea of applying current ratios to those years and it was pointed out that this would be inaccurate as older cars had been exposed on the road for many more years and miles, which is a valid point. But if we sampled, say, 100 cars from '91 it might give us a very accurate estimate of the fate of the total production run. Of course, "100" is just a number I picked out of the air. Someone here who still remembers Statistics-101 from their college days can probably say how large the sample size would need to be in order to represent the total population with a confidence level of 98%, or 95%, or whatever we decide is "good enough".

PS: Please PM me if there is an opportunity to work on or help fund this project going forward, regardless of how you proceed.
 
The biggest issue is VIN tracking - I think we would need to work with an automotive professional who has a full access Autocheck account. We all got perma-banned from autocheck after stretching the limits on what "unlimited" meant ;)

With that said, I would be happy to make visuals all day long if someone can get the raw data.
 
I'm all in as well but we need someone with a commercial account, carfax would work even better since on an average it has more info.
 
Based on recent US registration data:

2016-registered-100.gif


Article: http://www.nsxprime.com/2016/06/24/fewer-than-68-of-1st-gen-us-nsxs-remain-registered/
 
That's awesome data. Is there a further breakdown available? (By model year or color for example)
 

On the surface of it, that is not the mortality curve that I would have initially expected. If the production numbers per year were equal, you would expect that the % for 1991 would be lowest and 2005 highest just due to the probability of a vehicle being exposed to a total salvage incident and age issues. Perhaps because the production numbers in the later years were so low, the loss of a single vehicle can have a significant impact on the overall survival numbers which distorts a conventional statistical analysis (sample size is too small). The raw numbers are interesting non the less.

It is possible that if the NSX is entering a collector phase, older vehicles which might decline to a salvage designation just due to age are being resurrected, restored and registered which could account for the high registration rate for early years. Interesting opportunity for endless speculation.

Wasn't it a former US President who said there are lies, damn lies and statistics?

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91's with pop ups are the "true" Nsx.:cool:

I must admit that a pristine 1991 red with black roof with fat fives will always have an iconic appeal for me, even though my NSX is definitely not red.
 
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On the surface of it, that is not the mortality curve that I would have initially expected. If the production numbers per year were equal, you would expect that the % for 1991 would be lowest and 2005 highest just due to the probability of a vehicle being exposed to a total salvage incident and age issues. Perhaps because the production numbers in the later years were so low, the loss of a single vehicle can have a significant impact on the overall survival numbers which distorts a conventional statistical analysis (sample size is too small). The raw numbers are interesting non the less.

It is possible that if the NSX is entering a collector phase, older vehicles which might decline to a salvage designation just due to age are being resurrected, restored and registered which could account for the high registration rate for early years. Interesting opportunity for endless speculation.

Wasn't it a former US President who said there are lies, damn lies and statistics?

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Yes I find this rather strange as well. Especially being that I own a slavage 1991. But only salvaged due to theft and recovery...
I could not walk away from a 16,500 price tag back in 2010... In retrospect though, it was a high maintenance lady if you catch my drift...
 
Thanks for the new data. A further breakdown at least into numbers would be helpful, though arithmetic based on known production numbers is pretty simple on all our parts.
 
That's awesome data. Is there a further breakdown available? (By model year or color for example)

It is broken down by model year. I do not have it by color.

Wow! Based off this data, this makes the 1991 the lowest. Strange.... I guess 95% of 1991's are here in Cali. There are a LOT here...

1991 is the lowest % remaining, but since it was by far the highest production year there are still more than twice as many 1991s registered as any other model year.

On the surface of it, that is not the mortality curve that I would have initially expected.

Perhaps because the production numbers in the later years were so low, the loss of a single vehicle can have a significant impact on the overall survival numbers which distorts a conventional statistical analysis (sample size is too small).

% remaining on the road rises each year of the original coupe... Higher % each year from 1991 - 1994.

It drops off in 1995 for reasons unknown, but has the normal rise again in 1996.

The only sequence that is really unusual to me is the 1997 - 1999 where it drops year over year, backwards from what you would expect. But as you noted later, the very low production numbers (just a couple hundred!) in those years makes it easy for the numbers to jump around a lot based on random activity. If you recall, there were also some very aggressive lease rates going on the NSX in the late '90s and I know a number of those lease cars were in pretty rough shape by the end of the lease. The Zanardis also seem to have taken a real hit. I know some have been destroyed, but others may be unregistered collector cars at this point.

The normal pattern returns for 2000 and 2001.

Because people knew the car was nearing end of production, I suspect a decent % of the very late model cars are unregistered collector cars. It only takes about 17 - 25 cars to represent ~10% of production for most of those years.
 
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The Zanardis also seem to have taken a real hit. I know some have been destroyed, but others may be unregistered collector cars at this point.

It appears that 36% (18 cars) of the Zanardi's are not registered. We know #1 is in Italy and another one was exported to Japan. Two have been stolen, and never recovered. One has never been reregistered. Others have been totaled and there are probably collectors storing cars without registration. So the numbers seem reasonable.

Bob
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It appears that 36% (18 cars) of the Zanardi's are not registered. We know #1 is in Italy and another one was exported to Japan. Two have been stolen, and never recovered. One has never been reregistered. Others have been totaled and there are probably collectors storing cars without registration. So the numbers seem reasonable.

Bob
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My Zanardi is currently unregistered and sitting in my garage. I drove it for the first time in a long time last week, treated her to a concours style detail, backed her back into my garage. Wrapped her in the SOS satin car cover and called it a day.
 
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