STICKY Gen1 NSX Current Market Analysis

RacerXwing · 29 January 2017

UPDATE AS OF 11/28/18: Please refer to the live-updated "NSX Valuation Document" (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...giPanuhIfiHDIcsmwfqBxOUZJb_-WUwbcHb7L/pubhtml) for all market insight including value, appreciation, and listing prices.

Jinks · 29 January 2017

Damn guy, or gal, sounds like we need to get you into an nsx pronto! Thanks for the detailed portfolio!

NSX2398 · 29 January 2017

Racer, you've obviously a lot of work into this but based on personal experience, (I bought a '91 in '01 with 80k miles on it but pretty good shape) I paid about 1/2 of what your chart says and it was pretty much the going price at the time .. so that's a data point for you. I'm Canadian but it was a US car that I paid US dollars for.

I'm not sure if you're aware of it but there's a far amount of information on NSX prod'n numbers already. See: http://nsxprime.com/wiki/Production_Numbers Note that there is some question about how Acura reported the numbers of sales .. calendar year vs prod'n year which might skew how that is applied to your research. Also, the NSX Wiki also includes a 'registry of sightings' (http://nsxprime.com/wiki/Category:NSXRegistry) which used autotrader and ebay sightings most of which I had captured and later entered along with an archive of the for sale section of Prime. Some of that data may intersect with what you've captured but some may represent new data points. The Wiki has been locked down since Lud moved the site so no data has been entered since about 2014 I think but at that time, I think we had about 1/8 of the US prod'n numbers represented .. although not all may have pricing info.

Good luck with the effort. There aren't a lot who are prepared to go to that effort!
...Ian

RacerXwing · 29 January 2017

All the missing charts should be visible now, sorry about that.

Jinks said:
Damn guy, or gal, sounds like we need to get you into an nsx pronto! Thanks for the detailed portfolio!

Thanks Jinks, I'm glad you enjoy it! This project gave me much more knowledge about the NSX so when the right one pops up I'll be ready.

NSX2398 said:
Racer, you've obviously a lot of work into this but based on personal experience, (I bought a '91 in '01 with 80k miles on it but pretty good shape) I paid about 1/2 of what your chart says and it was pretty much the going price at the time .. so that's a data point for you. I'm Canadian but it was a US car that I paid US dollars for.

I'm not sure if you're aware of it but there's a far amount of information on NSX prod'n numbers already. See: http://nsxprime.com/wiki/Production_Numbers Note that there is some question about how Acura reported the numbers of sales .. calendar year vs prod'n year which might skew how that is applied to your research. Also, the NSX Wiki also includes a 'registry of sightings' (http://nsxprime.com/wiki/Category:NSXRegistry) which used autotrader and ebay sightings most of which I had captured and later entered along with an archive of the for sale section of Prime. Some of that data may intersect with what you've captured but some may represent new data points. The Wiki has been locked down since Lud moved the site so no data has been entered since about 2014 I think but at that time, I think we had about 1/8 of the US prod'n numbers represented .. although not all may have pricing info.

Good luck with the effort. There aren't a lot who are prepared to go to that effort!
...Ian

Thanks for the data point Ian. The market in '01 was very different to today's. That table supposed to be the "today's" price. Even when looking at the 2014 data I found myself wishing I could go back...

The Production Numbers link is a good source; I've looked at that table many times.

Oh my goodness, I have never seen that registry of sightings before. I just might have to take a look. I admit the process of going through all that data is not the most enticing; I realized even going through the marketplace archives that I could just keep going back, and back, and back... So I set a "stop" at 2014 for my sanity. It's good to know the data is there if I do decide to go after it, thanks!

neuronbob · 29 January 2017

Paging [MENTION=26078]blue_myriddn[/MENTION] who has been interested in NSX numbers.

I have read through only part of this thorough analysis because I'm working today. What a thorough job! I agree with [MENTION=31260]Jinks[/MENTION], you desperately need to get yourself a NSX, STAT!

Thank you for your work.

RacerXwing · 29 January 2017

Thanks a lot neuron; I'm happy to contribute to the community.

For everyone else, I've made some updates to the original post - fewer tables, more graphs! I hope that makes it easier to understand.

fit2betied · 29 January 2017

I have to agree - what a great job making the data visual and easy to understand. I've been looking for an NSX for over a year and your conclusions mirror what I've been seeing as well. There are lots of variables (time of the year, location in the US, condition of the car) which are sometimes hard to capture but as a rule of thumb I'd say you nailed it. Would be interesting to see if the sale numbers (by color say) match the percentage of the production numbers. Folks should remember that the listing price is not often the sales price, but gives the same trends and relative data. Glad you've been lurking!

sca037 · 29 January 2017

GREAT post RacerXwing, I hope that we can add you to the group of MI NSX owners fairly soon!

Jinks · 30 January 2017

Someone get this guy to update our aging wiki....

Yinzer · 30 January 2017

neuronbob said:
Paging @blue_myriddn who has been interested in NSX numbers.

I have read through only part of this thorough analysis because I'm working today. What a thorough job! I agree with @Jinks, you desperately need to get yourself a NSX, STAT!

Thank you for your work.

http://www.nsxprime.com/forum/showthread.php/189199-So-just-what-price-will-an-NSX-be-in-5-years

Agreed - thanks and fun post, I always enjoy numbers l

LMR · 30 January 2017

This is good info, thanks for posting it.

blue_myriddn · 31 January 2017

Great post! I did a similar thing when I was shopping, but in much less detail and focus.

docjohn · 31 January 2017

thanks for crunching the numbers....would be interesting to break down stats further into exterior/interior color combos...

Old Guy · 31 January 2017

Mmmmm data candy! Your not some derivatives analyst for some investment bank on the side are you?

You sales data confirmed what I suspected, that my Monaco Blue Pearl is the rarest of the rare (or the most unloved). The only caution, which you have noted, is that the prices are asks. The asks for the 'modified' category may reflect seller bias rather than clearing price. Unfortunately, without clearing prices, my speculation is impossible to confirm.

Nice work.

Sportsmind4me · 31 January 2017

Wow, this is truly impressive! I'd hate to think how long this took to compile. Thanks for taking the time!

RacerXwing · 1 February 2017

sca037 said:
GREAT post RacerXwing, I hope that we can add you to the group of MI NSX owners fairly soon!

Yinzer said:
http://www.nsxprime.com/forum/showthread.php/189199-So-just-what-price-will-an-NSX-be-in-5-years

Agreed - thanks and fun post, I always enjoy numbers l

LMR said:
This is good info, thanks for posting it.

blue_myriddn said:
Great post! I did a similar thing when I was shopping, but in much less detail and focus.

Sportsmind4me said:
Wow, this is truly impressive! I'd hate to think how long this took to compile. Thanks for taking the time!

Thanks a lot everyone! I hope to join the family of NSX owners soon.

fit2betied said:
I have to agree - what a great job making the data visual and easy to understand. I've been looking for an NSX for over a year and your conclusions mirror what I've been seeing as well. There are lots of variables (time of the year, location in the US, condition of the car) which are sometimes hard to capture but as a rule of thumb I'd say you nailed it. Would be interesting to see if the sale numbers (by color say) match the percentage of the production numbers. Folks should remember that the listing price is not often the sales price, but gives the same trends and relative data. Glad you've been lurking!

Thanks for your good comments. Ask and you shall receive...

I've compared my dataset to the full US production numbers data on Prime. In general, there is a good agreement. Some notable conclusions:

Formula Red and Berlina Black are even more dominant in the full production population.
Rio Yellow, Midnight, Monte Carlo Blue, Imola Orange, and Monaco Blue share similarly sized small slices at the bottom, but are in a different order.

docjohn said:
thanks for crunching the numbers....would be interesting to break down stats further into exterior/interior color combos...

Luckily, I already have this handy! I chose not to include it in the main post because I felt it would have bogged it down too much, but I'm happy to share it. Note that I don't differentiate between Tan and Camel or Onyx and Black.

<style type="text/css"></style>

Exterior Color	Interior Color	COUNT	Most Recent Listing Date	MIN of Miles	AVERAGE of Miles	MAX of Miles
Berlina Black	Black	170	1/27/2017	1,393	75,873	222,000
	Custom	10	1/23/2017	48,800	120,570	209,052
	Ivory	42	1/23/2017	23,374	89,540	205,510
	Red	1	7/20/2015	90,350	90,350	90,350
	Tan	38	1/4/2017	6,800	73,203	172,000
Berlina Black Total		261	1/27/2017	1,393	79,452	222,000
Brooklands Green	Tan	28	1/22/2017	24,385	81,328	161,000
Brooklands Green Total		28	1/22/2017	24,385	81,328	161,000
Custom	Type R	2	5/13/2016	53,000	66,000	79,000
	Black	19	1/12/2017	26,476	99,425	256,000
	Custom	4	1/23/2017	54,951	88,795	104,121
	Ivory	3	7/25/2016	79,000	79,300	79,900
	Tan	4	1/17/2017	27,647	80,774	100,695
Custom Total		32	1/23/2017	26,476	91,789	256,000
Formula Red	Black	234	1/26/2017	5,433	66,732	285,790
	Custom	10	1/24/2017	81,000	113,390	176,000
	Ivory	21	1/29/2017	11,814	71,964	166,700
	Tan	27	1/25/2017	9,625	60,448	137,800
Formula Red Total		292	1/29/2017	5,433	68,125	285,790
Grand Prix White	Type R	2	1/9/2016	59,624	88,812	118,000
	Black	34	1/23/2017	3,007	68,140	131,000
	Custom	1	2/2/2015	105,800	105,800	105,800
	Tan	7	12/30/2016	12,546	69,809	138,049
Grand Prix White Total		44	1/23/2017	3,007	70,201	138,049
Imola Orange	Black	1	11/21/2016	38,448	38,448	38,448
	Orange	8	1/11/2017	15,500	31,313	59,000
Imola Orange Total		9	1/11/2017	15,500	32,105	59,000
Kaiser Silver	Black	16	1/27/2017	23,610	70,221	182,486
Kaiser Silver Total		16	1/27/2017	23,610	70,221	182,486
Long Beach Blue	Type R	1	6/23/2016	44,495	44,495	44,495
	Black	7	12/23/2016	31,000	37,166	52,000
	Blue	5	1/9/2017	7,949	31,410	45,150
	Tan	5	1/12/2017	22,000	35,721	59,700
Long Beach Blue Total		18	1/12/2017	7,949	35,573	59,700
Midnight	Tan	3	12/15/2016	41,000	90,623	115,869
Midnight Total		3	12/15/2016	41,000	90,623	115,869
Monaco Blue	Black	1	5/7/2016	49,000	49,000	49,000
	Tan	1	6/26/2015	32,200	32,200	32,200
Monaco Blue Total		2	5/7/2016	32,200	40,600	49,000
Monte Carlo Blue	Black	1	11/26/2014	85,557	85,557	85,557
	Tan	4	12/8/2016	27,300	67,378	147,000
Monte Carlo Blue Total		5	12/8/2016	27,300	71,014	147,000
New Formula Red	Black	14	1/23/2017	7,972	39,343	103,300
	Tan	12	11/25/2016	17,078	33,810	113,000
	Zanardi Black	2	4/4/2016	33,848	55,424	77,000
New Formula Red Total		28	1/23/2017	7,972	38,120	113,000
Rio Yellow	Black	11	1/24/2017	3,524	28,507	83,000
	Yellow	3	8/24/2016	11,002	32,662	43,568
Rio Yellow Total		14	1/24/2017	3,524	29,397	83,000
Sebring Silver	Black	39	1/17/2017	6,500	76,031	340,000
	Custom	3	1/1/2017	70,000	82,370	90,610
Sebring Silver Total		42	1/17/2017	6,500	76,484	340,000
Silverstone	Black	49	1/27/2017	7,498	45,011	137,000
	Silver	5	3/7/2016	12,300	38,910	66,000
Silverstone Total		54	1/27/2017	7,498	44,446	137,000
Spa Yellow	Black	32	1/14/2017	10,000	41,688	95,327
	Custom	1	1/14/2014	20,298	20,298	20,298
	Yellow	1	3/18/2015	57,320	57,320	57,320
Spa Yellow Total		34	1/14/2017	10,000	41,518	95,327

Old Guy said:
Mmmmm data candy! Your not some derivatives analyst for some investment bank on the side are you?

You sales data confirmed what I suspected, that my Monaco Blue Pearl is the rarest of the rare (or the most unloved). The only caution, which you have noted, is that the prices are asks. The asks for the 'modified' category may reflect seller bias rather than clearing price. Unfortunately, without clearing prices, my speculation is impossible to confirm.

Nice work.

An interesting note is that Monaco Blue is the one color in my dataset where an automatic transmission has yet to surface. I'd love to see more sales of Monaco and Monte Carlo Blue. They are criminally underrepresented at the moment. An excellent point about the modified prices; maybe someday I'll have enough auction / clearing price data to build a separate model...

docjohn · 1 February 2017

Interestingly the berlina/tan combo in the T top is relatively rare.

Yinzer · 1 February 2017

I'm still willing to bet a matchbox NSX, Brazilian flag, and pack of Marlboro's that one day the early coupes will ascend in value over the NA2's.

Jinks · 1 February 2017

The data and charts here are staggering. You must really LOVE the nsx!

Anopheles · 1 February 2017

Holy Jesus this is like my statistics class in NSX form sweet!

RickySixx6 · 1 February 2017

RacerXwing - please e-mail either myself at [email protected] or [email protected] as we are already working on something like this and would love to help you expand on what you're already doing. Please take a look at www.mcoupebuyersguide.com if you haven't already. <style type="text/css"></style><style type="text/css"></style>

skafia · 1 February 2017

Wow, this is some dedication!

Jinks · 2 February 2017

Mods: Seriously, this guy should be our go to wiki guy. Also, someone get him into an nsx quickly....

SW2 Heritage Cars · 2 February 2017

Fantastic work.

phillyd · 2 February 2017

Great Job! Love your passion! Good luck on your NSX hunt:smile:

STICKY Gen1 NSX Current Market Analysis

RacerXwing

Jinks

NSX2398

RacerXwing

neuronbob

RacerXwing

fit2betied

sca037

Jinks

Yinzer

LMR

blue_myriddn

docjohn

Old Guy

Sportsmind4me

RacerXwing

docjohn

Yinzer

Jinks

Anopheles

RickySixx6

skafia

Jinks

SW2 Heritage Cars

Guest

phillyd

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