Which 2 consecutive quarters are we identifying as having negative GDP? Seems to me, the better question is to forecast when negative GDP will begin... if at all.
Which 2 consecutive quarters are we identifying as having negative GDP? Seems to me, the better question is to forecast when negative GDP will begin if at all.
Clearly, we are at risk for negative growth... but it just is not accurate to refer matter-of-factly to a recession that has not even begun yet. The earliest possible moment a recession can be declared will be in early 2009 when Q4 GDP numbers are released. Even then, negative Q3 GDP numbers will be required and we won't see those until the autumn.
That said, it would not surprise me one bit if we had mild negative GDP the next few quarters. Flat to mildly-positive GDP numbers in the coming quarters would not surprise me either.
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