Anyone buying silver with price down? It seams as the stock market goes up, metals go down, and silver looks pretty low. Bought a little to save for a rainy day. Where do you buy? just a local Gold/Silver dealer? thks
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Anybody buying silver?
- Thread starter Texas91Brent
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I have bought from here:
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/buy-silver.aspx
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/buy-silver.aspx
I use apmex.com as my broker.
Silver is actually more of a rare material, especially this day and age of everything electronic, than gold.
Personally, I think the precious metal market is just short of a mass scam. There isn't any cash flows from the precious metals and they only rely on appreciation or depreciation that varies on a supply controlled market.
Blah!
Personally, I think the precious metal market is just short of a mass scam. There isn't any cash flows from the precious metals and they only rely on appreciation or depreciation that varies on a supply controlled market.
Blah!
So what does that mean? invested or not? Has to be more valuable than the U.S dollar................
agree to disagree on this one. The biggest mass scam was FDR forcing citizens to give up their gold so they could deflate and manipulate the currency. Funny to think, each ounce of gold turned in (with the threat of 10 years of jail time or $10,000 fine ($178k adjusted for inflation)) granted the individual $20.67 of fiat monopoly money ($370 adjusted for inflation).... This same ounce of gold is $1581 today. These government policies robbed individuals of their wealth via their PM stash or decreased purchasing power any way you cut it.
This is where everybody has to come up with their own ideas but I have zero, absolutely zero faith in the USD so I have a difficult time banking all of my eggs in its basket.
So does this mean you are investing in silver?.....kinda the topic.
I do both. Just stating my position on PM's in general.
I do favor silver though.
a nsx is not an investment. its a consumable.
Silver with a KICK, and returns each and every drive. Smart investor. :biggrin:
Precious metals investment is very tempting. So are investments that yield dividends.
dividends in the form of constantly manipulated and devalued currency.
Not saying it's bad, but you're a little nuts if you don't have some metal.
Obviously this is slightly age dependent. Since I'm only 30 there are far too many years left in my life for the USD to completely go to crap.
So what does that mean? invested or not? Has to be more valuable than the U.S dollar................
My apologies - I didn't mean to offend you or your investing position. To explain a bit more, it means that precious metals do not have any inherent value. They don't produce any cash flow and don't have any utility other than being shiny. Over the last couple of hundred years or so, precious metals have been shown to have a very low yield - lower than inflation.
FDR issuing that series of Executive Orders is not one of the US' or his presidencies' shining moments. However, mentioning these doesn't do a whole lot to ease the hearts and minds of those investing in precious metals.
If an investor is going to invest in silver or gold or any other precious metal than do it with a view towards them being nothing more than a commodity. Buy it when the economy shows strength and no one is worrying about inflation. Sell it when the dollar shows weakness and inflation is a concern.
FDR issuing that series of Executive Orders is not one of the US' or his presidencies' shining moments. However, mentioning these doesn't do a whole lot to ease the hearts and minds of those investing in precious metals.
That's only if you comply with turning it in
All historically correct, but this is always taking into assumption that there will always be that one extra downturn and rebound. Remember that you're measuring successes, wealth and value on the USD. But what happens when that unit has no purchasing power? The Federal Reserve isn't exactly concerned with keeping value in the dollar as much as they are kicking the inevitable can down the road by printing money and destroying the purchasing power of those who invest and save.
It's not a mindset for everybody. But Fiat currencies always die, always. The USD will be no exception to this. Hopefully not in my lifetime, but why not diversify 10-20% into PM's? Investments based solely on the USD is the single point of failure.
Different strokes for different folks, but it helps me sleep at night.
To the OP, I was actually thinking about selling all of my gold and silver this week.
I think it's a great hedge against inflation and bad times, but it seems like the economy is pretty much back and you don't want to be the last one holding the bag as things get back to normal.
I have no idea where Gold/Silver will go though. For all I know, they'll go up for another 10-20 years as the world prints for a few more decades. BUT, if that was my play, I would map inflation vs Gold/Silver and find out what the fair value should be. I imagine we're way above it.
And this is different from every other investment how?
I look at Gold vs the stock market. Gold is up, what 300% in the last 10 years. The stock market is up 0%.
Adjusted for inflation, the stock market is still under it's high from 15 years ago! Not the best investment....
Houses are sketchy(interest rates go up, houses go where), bonds are in a bubble. Cash gets eaten up with inflation. Where do you put your money.
Aren't NSXs going up in value?
That makes it an investment(if you don't drive it I guess).
I think it's a great hedge against inflation and bad times, but it seems like the economy is pretty much back and you don't want to be the last one holding the bag as things get back to normal.
I have no idea where Gold/Silver will go though. For all I know, they'll go up for another 10-20 years as the world prints for a few more decades. BUT, if that was my play, I would map inflation vs Gold/Silver and find out what the fair value should be. I imagine we're way above it.
And this is different from every other investment how?
I look at Gold vs the stock market. Gold is up, what 300% in the last 10 years. The stock market is up 0%.
Adjusted for inflation, the stock market is still under it's high from 15 years ago! Not the best investment....
Houses are sketchy(interest rates go up, houses go where), bonds are in a bubble. Cash gets eaten up with inflation. Where do you put your money.
Aren't NSXs going up in value?
That makes it an investment(if you don't drive it I guess).
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That's only if you comply with turning it in
All historically correct, but this is always taking into assumption that there will always be that one extra downturn and rebound. Remember that you're measuring successes, wealth and value on the USD. But what happens when that unit has no purchasing power? The Federal Reserve isn't exactly concerned with keeping value in the dollar as much as they are kicking the inevitable can down the road by printing money and destroying the purchasing power of those who invest and save.
It's not a mindset for everybody. But Fiat currencies always die, always. The USD will be no exception to this. Hopefully not in my lifetime, but why not diversify 10-20% into PM's? Investments based solely on the USD is the single point of failure.
Different strokes for different folks, but it helps me sleep at night.
The economic cycle exists, there is no getting around it. Some troughs and peaks are greater than others and some recessions and expansions are greater than the others. However, they exist and will continue to exist. To be frank, if the dollar dies, there are greater things to worry about and precious metals won't be traded as currency. The USD is still where investors are putting their money. TIPs have a negative yield and are still being traded.
Cash flow.
Hey, if you want to buy at peak precious metal prices, there isn't anyone that'll stop you. In fact, there are some here that will gladly sell you theirs. Stocks, historically, have performed better than precious metals. It's intellectually dishonest to pick a certain time period and make a declaration of an asset's superiority. For instance, I can bring up that gold and silver have done terribly over the last two years vs how the S&P 500 has done. You have to look over a much longer period of applicable data.
In downtimes, everyone thinks that they'll never see good times again. In goodtimes, everyone thinks that it'll last forever. Neither are true. Where to put your money? Put it in a company that has minimal cyclical patterns, good net margins, and great cash flow.
Come on now, the first sentence in my post said I'm selling Gold/Silver now, not buying.
Don't fox news me
Not sure that's true....
1. Most stock people pick the 80s and 90s and ignore the long term trends.
2. Most stock people pick US stocks and ignore all the companies all around the world who also have stocks.
How many decades has the Japan stock market been down? 30 years? 40 years?
For example, the blanket statement that stocks are the best investment ignores this. In NOMINAL(not inflation adjusted) terms, 40 years of no growth.
Adjusted for inflation, people in Japan who bought stocks got DESTROYED.
More important are concepts like this. That sometimes the stock market is a good buy, sometimes it isn't.
People get tricked into thinking the market is always good by ignoring inflation.
Of course the magic question is how you determine 'inflation'. Is it fair to exclude food, exclude home prices, etc?
Depends who you ask.
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My point isn't to say that gold is good and stocks are bad.
My point is to say, I don't buy into the CNBC sheepish idea that one asset class is ALWAYS the best.
Tell that to people who bought the Nasdaq in the 90s. They still haven't made their money back. They never will.
My core point is I don't see ANYWHERE to invest now that looks reasonable.
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I have a unique perspective on this because I am almost done with my MS in an area of geological sciences (energy/mining applications) and have been and still to this day work deeply in the financial sector, previously as a securities trader and presently as an advisor to financial advisors. I'll try not to write a book.
Precious metals are not good or bad - it depends. For example, if I had a 100m USD net worth and wanted to keep 10m protected against inflation, I'd be much wiser to purchase a tract of farm land then buy a hunk of metal. The farm land will adjust with inflation as good or better than gold, it produces cash flow, and it can be insured three ways to sunday (the land, the title, the crops, etc.). Or maybe I buy an apartement complex, oil and gas leases, land with large wind mills on it paying rents, etc. Another benefit, say in the case of farms, is you can leverage the asset easily, sometimes at almost no cost, through subsidized loans. Usually they are much more advantageous tax wise as well. They generally serve the same core function as gold or silver (that is agruable historically but we'll give PM owners the benefit of the doubt here) that most buyers expect with significant additional benefits.
Now if I had a client with investable assets of $100k who was scared of real estate and or or legitmately concerned with the high transaction costs often associated with real estate, maybe precious metals are a prudent recommendation if inflation is keeping him up at night. I'd buy something in the energy sector or short fixed income personally but I realize that is not for everyone.
Moving totally away from finance to an at least as important part of PM buying is understanding supply and usage; everyone focuses on demand. Most silver mines are not silver mines. They are copper, zinc, lead, or gold mines. They happen to produce silver as a by product due to the geological environment that produces what they are actually after. Internalizing this fact is powerful. Silver production is not necessarily strongly correlated with the price of silver. It also means that there is a danger of silver prices going to very low levels - the mines are profitable with or without the silver and dump whatever they produce onto the market. Platinum group metals (besides this effect within PGMs) and gold are not like this - people specifically go after these metals as the price rises and decrease production/shut in the mines if prices fall pass a thresh hold. Higher silver costs, of course, do cause miners to attempt to extract more silver from ore than they would otherwise such as through implementing more complex/expensive seperation processes. In that matter production will rise all other things equal, but not nearly to the effect that most people believe.
I would focus on a PGM and avoid silver. Many people give me the same argument for buying silver instead of platinum/palladium as people who prefer to buy a $10 stock instead of a $100 stock because the latter is "more expensive." I just smile when people say that and do not even bother.
Precious metals are not good or bad - it depends. For example, if I had a 100m USD net worth and wanted to keep 10m protected against inflation, I'd be much wiser to purchase a tract of farm land then buy a hunk of metal. The farm land will adjust with inflation as good or better than gold, it produces cash flow, and it can be insured three ways to sunday (the land, the title, the crops, etc.). Or maybe I buy an apartement complex, oil and gas leases, land with large wind mills on it paying rents, etc. Another benefit, say in the case of farms, is you can leverage the asset easily, sometimes at almost no cost, through subsidized loans. Usually they are much more advantageous tax wise as well. They generally serve the same core function as gold or silver (that is agruable historically but we'll give PM owners the benefit of the doubt here) that most buyers expect with significant additional benefits.
Now if I had a client with investable assets of $100k who was scared of real estate and or or legitmately concerned with the high transaction costs often associated with real estate, maybe precious metals are a prudent recommendation if inflation is keeping him up at night. I'd buy something in the energy sector or short fixed income personally but I realize that is not for everyone.
Moving totally away from finance to an at least as important part of PM buying is understanding supply and usage; everyone focuses on demand. Most silver mines are not silver mines. They are copper, zinc, lead, or gold mines. They happen to produce silver as a by product due to the geological environment that produces what they are actually after. Internalizing this fact is powerful. Silver production is not necessarily strongly correlated with the price of silver. It also means that there is a danger of silver prices going to very low levels - the mines are profitable with or without the silver and dump whatever they produce onto the market. Platinum group metals (besides this effect within PGMs) and gold are not like this - people specifically go after these metals as the price rises and decrease production/shut in the mines if prices fall pass a thresh hold. Higher silver costs, of course, do cause miners to attempt to extract more silver from ore than they would otherwise such as through implementing more complex/expensive seperation processes. In that matter production will rise all other things equal, but not nearly to the effect that most people believe.
I would focus on a PGM and avoid silver. Many people give me the same argument for buying silver instead of platinum/palladium as people who prefer to buy a $10 stock instead of a $100 stock because the latter is "more expensive." I just smile when people say that and do not even bother.
Awesome...was wondering when you were going to chime in.
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Jond, you can't ignore the long term data as it'll only include one or two economic cycles. And even if you don't want to interpret the data long term, it still doesn't revise the inherent nature of precious metals as one without cash flows and utility.
The correct reference statement is "stocks perform better than precious metals." One is greater than the other from a % POV. However, I fully realize that % is just one aspect of someone's investing strategy.
Where to invest your money? Well, let me say this: irrespective of where the market is at, you can make money.
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Jond, you can't ignore the long term data as it'll only include one or two economic cycles. And even if you don't want to interpret the data long term, it still doesn't revise the inherent nature of precious metals as one without cash flows and utility.
The correct reference statement is "stocks perform better than precious metals." One is greater than the other from a % POV. However, I fully realize that % is just one aspect of someone's investing strategy.
Where to invest your money? Well, let me say this: irrespective of where the market is at, you can make money.
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2 issues. Property taxes and liquidity.
With farm land, I would assume you lose 1% per year to property taxes.
Also, I imagine it could take a year or more to offload a lot of land in the middle of nowhere.
This vs precious metals where you can sell them in minutes at any coin shop, the internet, etc.
And no yearly taxes, only when you sell.
The best inflation hedge is a low interest loan on a house.
If inflation is over 4%(loan rate), you're getting paid the difference on money that's not even yours.
BUT, assuming houses aren't still over priced.
Maybe they are, maybe they aren't, I don't know.
Yeah, to be fair, 50% of my net is in stocks. But I have seen multiple people, first hand, lose their entire life savings($1,000,000+ each) in the stock market.
Not to pick on sahtt, but didn't you lose quite a bit in the stock market? Not trying to pick on you, but just for an honest conversation.
As far as history, adjusted for inflation:
1820 to 1920(100 years), the stock market made 0% return!
1880 to 1950(70 years), 0% return.
1955 to 1980(25 years), 0% return
1965 to 1985(20 years), 0% return
1998 to 2013(15 years), 0% return
The trick is where do you measure? What years do you pick? Assuming we have maybe 30 years until retirement, where is there a consistent 30 year period of growth? There isn't......
AND how do you measure inflation. If you lowball inflation, it looks like the market did better than it did.
From my observations, the stock market seems to do this. 1. Adjust for inflation. 2. Adjust for new money in(ponzi scheme).
The 80s boom was the result of the killing pension plans and the invention of the 401K. AKA ponzi scheme.
The 90s was the invention of some crazy technology called 'the internet' that no one could have dreamed would have come out of no where.
If you think about it logically, can ANYTHING go up at a rate greater than inflation forever(on average)? Math would seem to say these things would start to grow exponentially and go to infinity.
True. Same can be said of vegas too...
Side note, all of this is in good humor and fun. Not trying to be in any way mean or anything.
I enjoy these conversations. Curious what youguys come back with.
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2 issues. Property taxes and liquidity.
With farm land, I would assume you lose 1% per year to property taxes.
Also, I imagine it could take a year or more to offload a lot of land in the middle of nowhere.
This vs precious metals where you can sell them in minutes at any coin shop, the internet, etc.
And no yearly taxes, only when you sell.
The best inflation hedge is a low interest loan on a house.
If inflation is over 4%(loan rate), you're getting paid the difference on money that's not even yours.
BUT, assuming houses aren't still over priced.
Maybe they are, maybe they aren't, I don't know.
Yeah, to be fair, 50% of my net is in stocks. But I have seen multiple people, first hand, lose their entire life savings($1,000,000+ each) in the stock market.
Not to pick on sahtt, but didn't you lose quite a bit in the stock market? Not trying to pick on you, but just for an honest conversation.
The trick is where do you measure? What years do you pick? Assuming we have maybe 30 years until retirement, where is there a consistent 30 year period of growth? There isn't......
AND how do you measure inflation. If you lowball inflation, it looks like the market did better than it did.
From my observations, the stock market seems to do this. 1. Adjust for inflation. 2. Adjust for new money in(ponzi scheme).
The 80s boom was the result of the killing pension plans and the invention of the 401K. AKA ponzi scheme.
The 90s was the invention of some crazy technology called 'the internet' that no one could have dreamed would have come out of no where.
If you think about it logically, can ANYTHING go up at a rate greater than inflation forever(on average)? Math would seem to say these things would start to grow exponentially and go to infinity.
True. Same can be said of vegas too...
Side note, all of this is in good humor and fun. Not trying to be in any way mean or anything.
I enjoy these conversations. Curious what youguys come back with.
.
jbond - all good insights. Being critical of market performance and commonly "known" statistics is required to be a good investor IMO. John Mauldin has a good book called "bullseye investing" that covers some of the misnomers of past market performance and provides a great "reality check" while being easy to read. Farm land, or any other property for that matter, is far from the 'perfect' investment. While it is true it is easy to off load a few hundred bucks in gold coins in a saturday afternoon, there are absolutely transaction costs involved. I'd also say they are at least as high (if we are talking about physical metals) as real estate, if not more (different situation for GLD). Note I said if I had a $100m net worth client farm land was a good idea, I can assure you trying to liquidate $10m in physical PM is going to carry some serious transaction costs. One of my best friends runs the majority of the "austin cash for gold" franchise here in Texas. Low dollar amounts he requires about a 25-30% premium to melt value and has only gone above 88% when people bring in 6 figures worth of product. Not saying there are not other places to get a better deal as I have never attempted to sell lots of PM, but I am somewhat familiar with the market (was about to open a franchise before I got hit with a bunch of medical bills).
Where do you put the $10m in physical gold? Your garage? Are you not going to insure it? It won't be free if you do or if you store it at the bank (-this isn't directed at you in any way, just putting the questions out there)
It's true that lots of people have lost millions in the stock market, many of my friends/family members included, but the stock market didn't lose most of it - they did. It's insensitive to say but it is reality. The stock market is at all time highs. The only way people lost money was through bad timing or bad luck, both of which certainly happen on a regular basis. Now if you invested in Japan's stock market we have a different story (ouch!!!).
Regarding my personal performance in the stock market, I agree there is nothing wrong with a honest conversation and I appreciate you having the guts to bring it up. I have definitely had my fair share of losers and felt much of the same pain as everyone on this forum; I've been investing with my own $$ in the markets since I was 18. When i was about 19 and working as an intern for NOV, I got long NOV and RIG and did great until the oil market crashed. I was smart enough to get out without too severe of losses, but losing that money was extremely painful back then. I had nearly killed myself working since 15 and lost what amounted to couple months pay. Better to make your mistakes with 10 shares than 100.
Fortunately, however, the stock market has treated me okay. Nobody likes a braggart, especially me, but I'll talk about it if it's helpful. Not only did I buy massive during the recession with my personal money (think investing rather than trading) and just recently sold off my last remaining chunks for about 80-120% gain on average (see my posts on AAPL, or KMP, or YUM, for example), but I traded the stock market full-time for my livelihood for over 3 years; half at a firm supplying me capital (Kershner Trading Group) and half with my capital (leveraged by a different firm now called Greypoint Capital).
I had zero down months, even after trading expenses which were usually 2-4k per month, in my career. I have never known another trader who can say that honestly - that includes fixed income, equities, and currency traders. Depending on your measurement system, I was somewhere in the top 3 most consistent of 250+ traders in the history of the firm. I tied the firm record for consecutive up days (over a month), had one if not the best biggest up day : biggest down day ratio (over 4), among other things.
My earnings were no where near what I call "**** you money" due to my risk management strategy and hesitation in the face of high risk/high reward situations (I am talking gain 50k lose 40k, not gain $500 lose $250) but one of my good friends and several colleagues achieved that level of success. You'll never here me complain, I was debt free 6 months after graduation from undergrad, pay cash for grad school, have taken some fairly expensive motorbike trips, etc., of which most of the cash was earned as a trader.
All that being said, the quality of the outcome should not be confused with the quality of the decision. Some people (not many) have gotten lucky in the markets but know very little or have no idea what risk they exposed themselves to. This is the guy who cashed out at the top of the tech boom or oil stock boom by luck and not a solid decision making process.
Others have not done so well but have an immense amount of experience and value to share. I recently made an unexpected killing on my NFP stock options because of buy out news; that was mostly luck besides the fact I maxed out my stock options every quarter for the last year, while I had both bad and good luck with my recent speculative play GST (CHK sued them without warning, stock dropped, I reduced my holdings by about a third for a significant loss due to risk management strategy, then it doubled from where I originally purchased it because CHK dropped the suit and in the process GST made out like bandits on some acreage in the woodford shale play in OK) - I know the difference between luck and skill but it has taken almost 10 years.
btw jbond, our views on the market are probably more similar than you think. I am extremely wary when people get too involved in the markets and, partially due to my FINRA licenses, about giving advice. Here I know you guys are a) reading it from the internet and b) generally pretty smart if you own or are interested in owning the NSX :smile:.
In fact, I don't recommend close friends/family invest more than 50% of their net worth in the market unless it is for some tax reason or they are getting a match from their company, etc. People buy and sell at the wrong times due to human nature - not stupidity - and it is difficult to over come. Investing in the 'stock market' also means very different things to different people. I have 20% of my holdings in oil and gas MLP's, 10% in various preferred shares that function more similar to debt instruments than stocks, and 30% in muni bond portfolios. They are all publicly traded on exchanges but they are not the same as buying XOM, GE, or CAT. I also say people must be cognizant of the general market P/E cycles (i.e. now is not a great time to be in the market, 2008/2009 was) and be willing to sell their winners through some sort of strategy. People generally fail to do this and unless your securities pay reliable and substantial dividends, they are destined for failure. Not to mention most companies eventually go bankrupt. The whole DJIA is an outright scam; they replace the losers with winners systematically. If you'd invested in Dow 25 years ago I bet half the companies don't even exist. Success in the markets takes discipline and strategy (or tremendous luck).
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Just coming back to say great post. I always enjoy reading your stuff.
If I didn't go into IT, finance would have probably been my second pick. For some reason this stuff interests me.
BTW, I hope the OP didn't buy too much Gold/Silver.
I got out by the skin of my teeth before Friday last week.
If I didn't go into IT, finance would have probably been my second pick. For some reason this stuff interests me.
BTW, I hope the OP didn't buy too much Gold/Silver.
I got out by the skin of my teeth before Friday last week.
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