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Thread: how many nsx still exist

  1. #126
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    Last NSX sold in Portland -- I had replacement of original tires with OEM 1000 mi/4 years ago. So yes.

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    Registered User tof's Avatar
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    Brylek, GREAT project. Thanks for taking the initiative on this and for all your data gathering efforts. blue_myriddn, fantastic visualization. Thanks to you as well.

    About the "early years"...I know we are talking an order of magnitude when comparing 91 production volume vs. each of the last few years so perhaps it isn't practical for this project to look at the early years in the same way as you have done for the last four. But we could still come up with some very reliable estimates regarding number of vehicles on the road with no accidents vs. those with accidents vs. totaled, even though a state-by-state break-down might not be feasible. What about surveying a random sample of those years' VINs.

    Earlier in this thread someone posted the idea of applying current ratios to those years and it was pointed out that this would be inaccurate as older cars had been exposed on the road for many more years and miles, which is a valid point. But if we sampled, say, 100 cars from '91 it might give us a very accurate estimate of the fate of the total production run. Of course, "100" is just a number I picked out of the air. Someone here who still remembers Statistics-101 from their college days can probably say how large the sample size would need to be in order to represent the total population with a confidence level of 98%, or 95%, or whatever we decide is "good enough".

    PS: Please PM me if there is an opportunity to work on or help fund this project going forward, regardless of how you proceed.
    91 bb/ivory (sold)

  3. #128
    NSXPrime Gold blue_myriddn's Avatar
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    The biggest issue is VIN tracking - I think we would need to work with an automotive professional who has a full access Autocheck account. We all got perma-banned from autocheck after stretching the limits on what "unlimited" meant

    With that said, I would be happy to make visuals all day long if someone can get the raw data.
    2001 New Formula Red/Tan NSX-T, member NSXCA

  4. #129
    NSXPrime Platinum Brylek's Avatar
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    I'm all in as well but we need someone with a commercial account, carfax would work even better since on an average it has more info.
    2004 Silverstone
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  5. #130
    Administrator NSX Prime's Avatar
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    Based on recent US registration data:



    Article: http://www.nsxprime.com/2016/06/24/f...in-registered/

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    NSXPrime Gold vivanshah's Avatar
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    That's awesome data. Is there a further breakdown available? (By model year or color for example)

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    NSXPrime Platinum Jinks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NSX Prime View Post
    Based on recent US registration data:



    Article: http://www.nsxprime.com/2016/06/24/f...in-registered/
    Wow! Based off this data, this makes the 1991 the lowest. Strange.... I guess 95% of 1991's are here in Cali. There are a LOT here...
    1991 ctsc'd 3.0L blown to smithereens. Currently under construction....
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    Guilty lol
    Quote Originally Posted by jinks View Post
    wow! Based off this data, this makes the 1991 the lowest. Strange.... I guess 95% of 1991's are here in cali. There are a lot here...

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    NSXPrime Platinum Jinks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaiT View Post
    Guilty lol
    91's with pop ups are the "true" Nsx.
    1991 ctsc'd 3.0L blown to smithereens. Currently under construction....
    2016 Hyundai Equus Ultimate- 5L V8 430 hp- yes it is quick and luxurious.
    2010 Acura MDX- technology package- dog hauler.
    2001 BMW 5 series- sold due to being raped for service.

  10. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by NSX Prime View Post
    Based on recent US registration data:



    Article: http://www.nsxprime.com/2016/06/24/f...in-registered/
    On the surface of it, that is not the mortality curve that I would have initially expected. If the production numbers per year were equal, you would expect that the % for 1991 would be lowest and 2005 highest just due to the probability of a vehicle being exposed to a total salvage incident and age issues. Perhaps because the production numbers in the later years were so low, the loss of a single vehicle can have a significant impact on the overall survival numbers which distorts a conventional statistical analysis (sample size is too small). The raw numbers are interesting non the less.

    It is possible that if the NSX is entering a collector phase, older vehicles which might decline to a salvage designation just due to age are being resurrected, restored and registered which could account for the high registration rate for early years. Interesting opportunity for endless speculation.

    Wasn't it a former US President who said there are lies, damn lies and statistics?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Jinks View Post
    91's with pop ups are the "true" Nsx.
    I must admit that a pristine 1991 red with black roof with fat fives will always have an iconic appeal for me, even though my NSX is definitely not red.
    Last edited by Old Guy; 06-24-2016 at 19:07.

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    NSXPrime Platinum Jinks's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=Old Guy;1904384]On the surface of it, that is not the mortality curve that I would have initially expected. If the production numbers per year were equal, you would expect that the % for 1991 would be lowest and 2005 highest just due to the probability of a vehicle being exposed to a total salvage incident and age issues. Perhaps because the production numbers in the later years were so low, the loss of a single vehicle can have a significant impact on the overall survival numbers which distorts a conventional statistical analysis (sample size is too small). The raw numbers are interesting non the less.

    It is possible that if the NSX is entering a collector phase, older vehicles which might decline to a salvage designation just due to age are being resurrected, restored and registered which could account for the high registration rate for early years. Interesting opportunity for endless speculation.

    Wasn't it a former US President who said there are lies, damn lies and statistics?

    - - - Updated - - -
    Yes I find this rather strange as well. Especially being that I own a slavage 1991. But only salvaged due to theft and recovery...
    I could not walk away from a 16,500 price tag back in 2010... In retrospect though, it was a high maintenance lady if you catch my drift...

  12. #137
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    Thanks for the new data. A further breakdown at least into numbers would be helpful, though arithmetic based on known production numbers is pretty simple on all our parts.
    neuronbob--
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  13. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by vivanshah View Post
    That's awesome data. Is there a further breakdown available? (By model year or color for example)
    It is broken down by model year. I do not have it by color.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jinks View Post
    Wow! Based off this data, this makes the 1991 the lowest. Strange.... I guess 95% of 1991's are here in Cali. There are a LOT here...
    1991 is the lowest % remaining, but since it was by far the highest production year there are still more than twice as many 1991s registered as any other model year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Old Guy View Post
    On the surface of it, that is not the mortality curve that I would have initially expected.

    Perhaps because the production numbers in the later years were so low, the loss of a single vehicle can have a significant impact on the overall survival numbers which distorts a conventional statistical analysis (sample size is too small).
    % remaining on the road rises each year of the original coupe... Higher % each year from 1991 - 1994.

    It drops off in 1995 for reasons unknown, but has the normal rise again in 1996.

    The only sequence that is really unusual to me is the 1997 - 1999 where it drops year over year, backwards from what you would expect. But as you noted later, the very low production numbers (just a couple hundred!) in those years makes it easy for the numbers to jump around a lot based on random activity. If you recall, there were also some very aggressive lease rates going on the NSX in the late '90s and I know a number of those lease cars were in pretty rough shape by the end of the lease. The Zanardis also seem to have taken a real hit. I know some have been destroyed, but others may be unregistered collector cars at this point.

    The normal pattern returns for 2000 and 2001.

    Because people knew the car was nearing end of production, I suspect a decent % of the very late model cars are unregistered collector cars. It only takes about 17 - 25 cars to represent ~10% of production for most of those years.
    Last edited by Lud; 06-25-2016 at 06:03.

  14. #139
    Registered User dezmanwong's Avatar
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by NSX Prime View Post
    Based on recent US registration data:



    Article: http://www.nsxprime.com/2016/06/24/f...in-registered/
    Thanks for this!

  15. #140
    Registered User 1BADNSX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lud View Post
    The Zanardis also seem to have taken a real hit. I know some have been destroyed, but others may be unregistered collector cars at this point.
    It appears that 36% (18 cars) of the Zanardi's are not registered. We know #1 is in Italy and another one was exported to Japan. Two have been stolen, and never recovered. One has never been reregistered. Others have been totaled and there are probably collectors storing cars without registration. So the numbers seem reasonable.

    Bob
    #26

  16. #141
    Charter Patron The Kid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1BADNSX View Post
    It appears that 36% (18 cars) of the Zanardi's are not registered. We know #1 is in Italy and another one was exported to Japan. Two have been stolen, and never recovered. One has never been reregistered. Others have been totaled and there are probably collectors storing cars without registration. So the numbers seem reasonable.

    Bob
    #26
    My Zanardi is currently unregistered and sitting in my garage. I drove it for the first time in a long time last week, treated her to a concours style detail, backed her back into my garage. Wrapped her in the SOS satin car cover and called it a day.
    99 Zanardi #24/50 Red/Black 28k Bone stock
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  17. #142
    Registered Vendor NSX1145's Avatar
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    Cool project guys!
    NSX Prime Vendor Listing: SCW Performance http://www.s2carbonworks.com
    2000 NSX-T - Silverstone/Onyx - Volk TE37's, Taitec GTLW, SCW GT Coolant Tank, GT Intake System, Radiator Panel, Radiator Brackets, Seibon Wing, DF ducts, ..More to come!

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    Charter Patron nsxbuilder's Avatar
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    So what are the numbers remaining for other makes/models of the same period? Aston, Jag, Lotus, Ferrari, Dodge Stealth Turbo...

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