The Ridiculous Dealer Price Hall of Fame

RacerXwing · 22 March 2018

Many of you know me and my work tracking the Gen1 NSX market. It can be said that I see a lot of NSX listings, and that's an understatement. I will use this thread to post the most ridiculously overpriced dealer examples I find. I am limiting the thread to dealer listings only to prevent situations that might be seen as a personal attack from developing. And besides, dealers should really know better. I figure it may be fun to step back to this thread in a few years as well, to see if 'ridiculous' will change over time.

Also note that I will use 'predicted list price' as the basis for comparison; this means the NSXs are simply being compared in the context of other NSX listing prices. Value wise, these NSXs are even more overpriced than the results given.

Here's some to get us started (I will also post key information in text form so it is still available when the listing is removed):

First, 2 from the same dealer!

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
1991	C	M	35780	S. Silver	Black	$79,900	~$59,000	+ $20,900
1991	C	M	69230	Red	Black	$69,900	~$48,500	+ $21,400

Next we have another pair, both in the unusual category of an 02+ Automatic with color-matched interiors. In particular, one is the seldom seen White with White interior. They may be rare, but are they worth it?

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
2004	T	A	30603	White	White	$79,899	~$60,500	+ $19,399
2004	T	A	70740	Silverstone	Silver	$78,995	~$49,500	+ $29,495

And if you think that is ridiculous, the Silverstone example started at $89,995! This makes by it by far the current king in this Hall of Fame.

Lastly, I intend this thread to simply be a light-hearted look at higher-than-predicted pricing. I do not intend for this thread to become a witch-hunt or a fountain of dealer negativity, so please make your comments with that in mind.

Jinks · 23 March 2018

Good data. Though, I am not sure these asking prices actually fetch that at sale. They never do. I see both early and late model gen 1 cars start out with ridiculous asking prices only to get bumped with reductions each month... The laughable ones are the custom ones with make shift turbo kits and red silicone vacuum hose kits installed.:biggrin:

RacerXwing · 23 March 2018

You are 100% correct. These ridiculously-priced examples often linger for months with discount after discount until they finally sell unceremoniously. On a related note, the average NSX sells for 90% of its predicted listing price; the ones above certainly will not at their current prices. Indeed, you see some strange things in your travels...

RacerXwing · 31 March 2018

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a new record holder!

The NSX deserves particular mention as it has been bouncing between dealers ever since it was sold on Prime, in April 2016 (http://www.nsxprime.com/forum/showt...lver-Black-Automatic-42-845-JH4NA12665S000007). That's right, this NSX has been on a two-year journey between dealers.

The latest caretaker of this NSX has really taken a shine to the "Expensive and Tasteful upgrades" like the Comptech supercharger and exhaust. So much so that they have listed it at $110,000.

http://www.adcoximports.com/2005-Acura-NSX/Used-Car/Pensacola-FL/9690328/Details.aspx

Let's see how it fares:

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
2005	T	A	43759	Silverstone	Black	$110,000	~$59,500	+ $50,500

A staggering $50k! Are the Comptech goodies worth that much? I think not.

docjohn · 31 March 2018

as an auto trans it might appeal to an older buyer and those folks usually have more disposable net worth....have you seen any auto trans outliers to the upside?

goldNSX · 31 March 2018

Just wondering. It's very hard to compare cars with 10+ years to each other just from advertised cars where one looks better than the other. Does your model take care of that?

RacerXwing · 31 March 2018

docjohn said:
as an auto trans it might appeal to an older buyer and those folks usually have more disposable net worth....have you seen any auto trans outliers to the upside?

Doc,

That's an interesting theory, so I looked into it. As of now, the average effect of an automatic transmission on NSX value is -8%, using only stock, clean-title NSXs in the calculation. Here are some notable upside outliers:

1991 Black / Black, sold for 18% above my predicted value ($55k) at Mecum auctions. Due to the older buyers at this kind of auction this one most strongly supports your theory. https://www.mecum.com/lots/FL0118-322471/1991-acura-nsx/
1992 Black / Ivory customized, sold for 26% above my predicted value ($36.5k). Some of that increase may be attributed to the mods. http://usedcarsfsbo.com/asp/Item.asp?soldid=117314&make=Acura&theday=8/22/2015
1991 Custom color, heavily modified, sold for 37% above my predicted value. I question the validity of this data point, however https://www.ebay.com/itm/1990-Acura...D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

goldNSX said:
Just wondering. It's very hard to compare cars with 10+ years to each other just from advertised cars where one looks better than the other. Does your model take care of that?

If I understand correctly, you're asking how it is possible to have accurate valuations for a 1991 and a 2004 in the first post, considering they they are almost 15 years apart. The answer is my "model" is actually comprised of 2 sets of 4 separate models for each calendar year. One set predicts value based on NSX type, the other predicts listing price based on NSX type. The four models are:

NA1 Coupe (Manual)
NA1 Targa (Manual)
NA2 Targa (Manual)
NA2 Targa (Facelift, Manual)

Within each model, the price or value is predicted from the mileage, using only stock, clean-title NSXs of each type, and then is adjusted for special factors like a salvage title, accident, etc.

I also assign subjective values to an NSX's level of modification and maintenance, as these can also affect value.

If an NSX is not one of the four types types, for example an NA1 Coupe (automatic), I value it using the closest model and then apply the appropriate special factor, in this case -8% for an automatic. I hope this is is what you were asking and it makes sense.

docjohn · 31 March 2018

thanks for the prompt reply.In general I have noticed that the average auto trans does bring less than a similar year and mileage manual..and having your analysis helps us in determining if our own theories are actually being proven....

goldNSX · 31 March 2018

RacerXwing said:
If I understand correctly, you're asking how it is possible to have accurate valuations for a 1991 and a 2004 in the first post, considering they they are almost 15 years apart.
...
Within each model, the price or value is predicted from the mileage, using only stock, clean-title NSXs of each type, and then is adjusted for special factors like a salvage title, accident, etc.

I also assign subjective values to an NSX's level of modification and maintenance, as these can also affect value.

My point is that it's hard to judge the condition of a car being at least 13 years old. Or a 91 being 27 years old. They are all shiny and waxed but their condition can vary widely. At least, you're trying to compensate for that with a subjective value, even though it's very hard to do so if one haven't seen the car in person. But I like your analysis even though there are limitations and some conclusions can be misleading. "THE value" of a particular NSX is hard to define. The asking price is only an indicator of the value the item might has. That's what I like about auctions: people have to reveal their willingness to pay for a certain item. The dealer's asking price can widely differ from the price finally paid, the most interesting but unobtainable variable. In statistical modelling, it's essential that you include all variables you can. The problem are the hidden variables you won't be able to observe. Like a dealer who's waiting for an Alice Cooper fan because he has his former car in stock.

RacerXwing · 31 March 2018

Thanks Doc, happy to help!

goldNSX said:
My point is that it's hard to judge the condition of a car being at least 13 years old. Or a 91 being 27 years old. They are all shiny and waxed but their condition can vary widely...

I completely agree. An NSX could look all shined up and ready to sell, but behind the scenes it has sat for 5 years and needs belts / hoses / etc and I could never know it. As you say, there's only so much I can see online but I do try my best to account for it all. You do need to be careful, like in this very thread for instance, Comptech parts on an 05 automatic don't add $50k in value!

I enjoy watching NSX sales at auctions and the models I use for valuation are only based on auction sales or sales with a known final price. As you say, the asking price doesn't tell the whole story. I am hopeful that now I have enough data that any outliers do not affect the models' calculation. I already filter out what outliers I can by not including heavily modded cars and cars with salvage titles from the models, so I hope what's left is at least a decent approximation to what is actually going on valuewise. That's why I am always careful to say. "Based on __ NSXs that have sold in the past year, my data suggests that the value of your NSX is $______" because at the end of the day it is an approximation, not a certainty.

goldNSX · 31 March 2018

What value of certainty or confidence interval would you give to the numbers? +-5k or +-10k or...?

docjohn · 31 March 2018

the most helpful data point is the actual sale price.....that price should include the buyers due diligence to determine what mechanical issues and deferred maintenance needs to be done and adjust from the asking accordingly...

RacerXwing · 31 March 2018

Good question goldNSX. I compare the predicted price/value to the actual price/value by dividing the actual price/value by the predicted price/value, creating an 'index'. In this way, the differences are expressed as a percentage above or below the predicted price rather than an absolute dollar amount. Because I think you'll enjoy this, I ran the numbers and calculated 90% and 95% confidence interval errors for A (Actual Value), I (Private Seller Listing), and D (Dealer Listing), for the stock, clean title NSXs I use in my price models. These results are for the models that are based on 2017 data, which I currently use in valuation.

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	A	I	D
Index Mean	0.996	0.984	0.996
Index Sigma	0.118	0.136	0.136
Count	59	198	121

90% CI error	0.025	0.016	0.020
95% CI error	0.030	0.019	0.024

Therefore, the current error (95% confidence) is 3% for values and 1.9-2.4% for listing prediction.

docjohn · 31 March 2018

I'm having high school statistics anxiety

BAVARIA · 2 April 2018

I dropped statistics. Then again I had to repeat Grade 13 calculus (yes, we had Grade 13 in Toronto when I was in high school -- no Canadian jokes please) in summer school. At least the teacher in summer school spoke English and I did quite well. But I digress.

Racer, seriously thanks for your good work on this project. Of great interest to many of us.

Best,
Jeff

RacerXwing · 19 April 2018

Thank you Jeff for your kind words.

We now have another member in the Hall of Fame, but not for the reason you'd expect. Today a 1991 NSX with just 10000 miles was listed at a dealer. With such low miles, you'd think an $80k or even $100k listing price wouldn't be out of the question. Well, this dealer has gone the opposite way!

http://www.highmarques.com/listings/1991-acura-nsx/

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
1991	C	M	10200	Black	Black	$66,500	~$80,500	- $14,000

Well, there you have it. Ridiculous can mean low too. Sure, those modifications (wheels, center console) take away some value with mileage this low, but not the the extent of $14,000. Reverse those simple modifications and you can easily list that NSX for $80k+.

RacerXwing · 25 April 2018

Not to worry. After that anomaly, we are now back on form with another pair of entrants.

Both these NSXs are 1991s with Ivory interiors and solid driver quality miles. No collector would swarm after these, but that hasn't stopped their respective dealers from giving them collector-esque prices.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/132595465613?ViewItem=&vxp=mtr&item=132595465613
https://www.ebay.com/itm/NSX-Sport/253582158531?hash=item3b0aacaac3:g:MIMAAOSw5UVa35P~&vxp=mtr

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
1991	C	M	84595	Black	Ivory	$67,999	~$49,500	+ $18,499
1991	C	M	74359	Red	Ivory	$69,950	~$50,500	+ $19,450

And there you have it.

RacerXwing · 30 April 2018

Here comes another. This NSX is rather distinctive with a custom black and red paint job. It was languishing for a few months until it sold at Mecum for $46,750, approximately $3500 higher than market value, despite the fact that it had been listed for under $46k before selling. I thought that was the end of it. But now its back in a manner that will immortalize it forever in this Hall of Fame:

https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/dealer/acura/nsx/2105426.html

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
1991	C	M	75697	Custom Black / Red	Black	$89,900	~$50,500	+ $39,400

I'd expect to see that kind of list price with under 10k miles.

neuronbob · 1 May 2018

^^^^^
With 75k miles? They have GOT to be kidding.

alum04org · 1 May 2018

RacerXwing said:
Here comes another. This NSX is rather distinctive with a custom black and red paint job. It was languishing for a few months until it sold at Mecum for $46,750, approximately $3500 higher than market value, despite the fact that it had been listed for under $46k before selling. I thought that was the end of it. But now its back in a manner that will immortalize it forever in this Hall of Fame:

https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/dealer/acura/nsx/2105426.html

Year Body Trans Miles Ext. Color Int. Color List Price Predicted List Price Difference
1991 C M 75697 Custom Black / Red Black $89,900 ~$50,500 + $39,400

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I'd expect to see that kind of list price with under 10k miles.

I remember this one. :redface:

JH4NA1157MT001880

RacerXwing · 14 May 2018

Well everyone, if there's one thing I've learned, it's that the NSX listings never fail to surprise you. Roll out the red carpet, because today we welcome the new King of this Hall of Fame. And its reign will be a long one:

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=484938624

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
1991	C	M	75983	Red	Black	$149,999	~$50,500	+ $99,499

You read that right, folks. $150k with 75k miles! $100k overpriced! At a listing price nearly 3 times its predicted listing price, this is one of the most overpriced NSXs in my entire database. It is so ridiculously priced that I am excluding it from my database, so that its outlandish outlier weight does not affect the price calculation model. I wonder what on Earth the dealer was thinking. Perhaps it is a typo.

Anticon · 14 May 2018

RacerXwing said:
Thank you Jeff for your kind words.

We now have another member in the Hall of Fame, but not for the reason you'd expect. Today a 1991 NSX with just 10000 miles was listed at a dealer. With such low miles, you'd think an $80k or even $100k listing price wouldn't be out of the question. Well, this dealer has gone the opposite way!

http://www.highmarques.com/listings/1991-acura-nsx/

Year Body Trans Miles Ext. Color Int. Color List Price Predicted List Price Difference
1991 C M 10200 Black Black $66,500 ~$80,500 - $14,000

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</tbody>

Well, there you have it. Ridiculous can mean low too. Sure, those modifications (wheels, center console) take away some value with mileage this low, but not the the extent of $14,000. Reverse those simple modifications and you can easily list that NSX for $80k+.

I picked this one up over the weekend. It's pristine. Owner included all original parts to return back to stock. Like you mentioned other than wheels and center console its bone stock. I purchased for 65k so you can add that to your database.

I'm officially a new member of the NSX club and couldn't be happier!!! :smile:

nsxvtecvtec · 14 May 2018

LOL $150k

my car has nearly 110k miles on it, and i am willing to sell it for $80k

Sportsmind4me · 17 May 2018

It's either a typo or the dealer was having an out of body experience!

RacerXwing · 25 June 2018

After a period of sanity, don't worry, we have new entrant. But again, this one is not as expected. What if I told you you could have a clean-title, modified, Imola Orange 1991 with 122k miles for the low low price of $30k? I'd tell you to look no further, because that's exactly what we have here. Check your flux capacitor, because this dealer is stuck in 2010. It's no surprise that this one is already gone.

http://indyluxurymotorsports.com/ve...=1991&make=ACURA&model=NSX&stock_number=2626B

Year	Body	Trans	Miles	Ext. Color	Int. Color	List Price	Predicted List Price	Difference
1991	C	M	122467	Custom Imola Orange	Ivory	$29,995	~$43,000	- $13,000

The Ridiculous Dealer Price Hall of Fame

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