How many nsx left in us?

[maxpowers]

After watching an episode of Top Gear, I saw they have a site in the UK which tells how many of a particular make and model are on the road.

Example: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/?utf8=✓&q=HONDA+NSX

Anyone have access to that kind of data in the US? It would be cool to see how many in the country and by state. I'm sure someone at the various DMV's has access but I sure can't find it.

Judging by salvage auction sites I check where there are total losses to be sold for parts, we're losing quite a few each year.

It looks like there were only 8997 sold in US originally and 18685 in the whole world. Every time I see a pictures like the following it makes me wonder... and there are a whole lot of them.

 

[BlackTop99]

Great find!

Looks like the statistical loss is in the 2% area. Assuming the same for US cars, it would put us at around 6000 cars left; plus or minus. But here's my math:

Year		Beg Q		Loss		Prod		End Q
1991		0		0		3163		3163
1992		3163		-63.26		1271		4370.74
1993		4370.74		-87.4148		598		4881.325
1994		4881.325		-97.6265		513		5296.699
1995		5296.699		-105.934		780		5970.765
1996		5970.765		-119.415		508		6359.349
1997		6359.349		-127.187		338		6570.162
1998		6570.162		-131.403		245		6683.759
1999		6683.759		-133.675		221		6771.084
2000		6771.084		-135.422		284		6919.662
2001		6919.662		-138.393		166		6947.269
2002		6947.269		-138.945		246		7054.324
2003		7054.324		-141.086		171		7084.237
2004		7084.237		-141.685		198		7140.552
2005		7140.552		-142.811		248		7245.741
2006		7245.741		-144.915				7100.827
2007		7100.827		-142.017				6958.81
2008		6958.81		-139.176				6819.634
2009		6819.634		-136.393				6683.241
2010		6683.241		-133.665				6549.576
2011		6549.576		-130.992				6418.585
2012		6418.585		-128.372				6290.213
2013		6290.213		-125.804				6164.409
2014		6164.409		-123.288				6041.121
2015		6041.121		-120.822				5920.298

<tbody>
</tbody>

If you knock that loss number down to 1%, you'd be looking at closer to 7,200 cars FWIW. My guess is the truth is somewhere in the middle of those 2 ranges. SO, my personal "how many jellybeans in the jar" answer would be 6500.

 

[shawn110975]

My guess is about 4000 that's what I tell people when they ask about our cars

something in my gut says 4000 or less

 

[BlackTop99]

My guess is about 4000 that's what I tell people when they ask about our cars

something in my gut says 4000 or less

While I like your number better, it could imply that NSX drivers are materially worse drivers than the mean.....

BUT!!! I also believe there are less than 4,000 cars left in the US that are not molested beyond the point where the can be brought back to a stock condition without spending more than the car is presently worth.

 

[NSXonwheels]

There's a pro and a con to either number. The more NSXs that are left the less they will appreciate in value but the more likely for companies to still produce parts and offer modifications and services for them. The less NSXs left the more they will appreciate but the harder it will be to find parts and people willing to produce them. I'm keeping mine forever so I want to be able to find parts and therefore resale value isn't much of a concern to me, let there be 8000 still!

 

[03 raw nsx]

I thought the total produced was around 19,000 cars for the 16 year production run.
And the initial amount of cars were:
55% to USA
45% to Japan
10% everywhere else

that said 4000 in still in the US would be unlikely

 

[BlackTop99]

There's a pro and a con to either number. The more NSXs that are left the less they will appreciate in value but the more likely for companies to still produce parts and offer modifications and services for them. The less NSXs left the more they will appreciate but the harder it will be to find parts and people willing to produce them. I'm keeping mine forever so I want to be able to find parts and therefore resale value isn't much of a concern to me, let there be 8000 still!

8,000 cars for the entire run is still PLENTY rare to keep supply scarce. And when it comes to parts, 10-15 years from now I have very high hopes for 3D printing to pick up a lot of slack.

 

[maxpowers]

Thanks for the responses. Still, there has to be someone, somewhere that has access to the registration databases. I wish they would just make the numbers public. It's not exactly a huge invasion of privacy to simply display the numbers.

I had an idea that we can use the UK as a model, there were 215 registered in 2001 and only 129 in 2015. That is a loss of 86 or 40% of registered NSXs in 14 years. If the rate in the US is similar and we take it back to 1992.. I'm thinking 4000 is actually more than plausible which is a surprise even to me. I understand that a lot may be track only and others may have been exported or simply garaged for preservation, but still...40% in 14 years???

Using a compounding formula with the UK's average loss rate at 2.86% annually we'd be looking at 4615 left today on the road.

 

[tof]

Lexus/Nexus has vehicle registration data but all I could get to without a subscription was the help pages.

 

[BlackTop99]

Thanks for the responses. Still, there has to be someone, somewhere that has access to the registration databases. I wish they would just make the numbers public. It's not exactly a huge invasion of privacy to simply display the numbers.

I had an idea that we can use the UK as a model, there were 215 registered in 2001 and only 129 in 2015. That is a loss of 86 or 40% of registered NSXs in 14 years. If the rate in the US is similar and we take it back to 1992.. I'm thinking 4000 is actually more than plausible which is a surprise even to me. I understand that a lot may be track only and others may have been exported or simply garaged for preservation, but still...40% in 14 years???

Using a compounding formula with the UK's average loss rate at 2.86% annually we'd be looking at 4615 left today on the road.

You need to sum up the columns.

I'm fairly certain "NSX" is fungible with "NSX V6"

Makes the numbers go from 316 to 240 over the period. Still, a 24% drop which over a 14 year period seems quite plausible. As a matter of fact, see the math below with a 2%/yr loss rate:

Year		Beg Q		2%/yr loss		End Q
2001		316		-6.32		309.68
2002		309.68		-6.1936		303.4864
2003		303.4864		-6.069728		297.4167
2004		297.4167		-5.948333		291.4683
2005		291.4683		-5.829367		285.639
2006		285.639		-5.712779		279.9262
2007		279.9262		-5.598524		274.3277
2008		274.3277		-5.486553		268.8411
2009		268.8411		-5.376822		263.4643
2010		263.4643		-5.269286		258.195
2011		258.195		-5.1639		253.0311
2012		253.0311		-5.060622		247.9705
2013		247.9705		-4.95941		243.0111
2014		243.0111		-4.860222		238.1509
2015		238.1509

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[nsxtasy]

1-2 percent sounds like a reasonable loss rate, considering that many NSXs don't accumulate all that many miles, not like cars commonly used as everyday drivers. 6000-7000 cars sounds reasonable to me. I'm sure quite a few of their owners never post to NSXprime, and the cars just sit in someone's garage, and maybe if they're lucky get driven on a nice day.

We know that the number of NSXs sold new in the United States is around 9000. (The NSXprime wiki mentions two numbers, 8949 and 8997.) And we know the VIN for each of them, thanks to Ben.

The only way you can make an estimate more reliable than guessing would be to run a Carfax on every NSX VIN, and tally the totals for each title status. (Granted, there will still be small differences, such as for cars subsequently imported or exported to or from the U.S., but they are minor.) Anybody want to run 9000 VIN's through Carfax? :biggrin:

In 2006, that same effort, to identify the number of cars for each title status, was actually undertaken for the Integra Type R, of which 3850 cars were sold new in the United States. You can view those results here.

 

[maxpowers]

Interesting. Thanks.

- - - Updated - - -

- - - Updated - - -

Ah.. I see. I thought you were using some other rough data from the US. At a glance I mistook the top numbers for the UK for totals I guess. Well done.

You need to sum up the columns.

I'm fairly certain "NSX" is fungible with "NSX V6"

Makes the numbers go from 316 to 240 over the period. Still, a 24% drop which over a 14 year period seems quite plausible. As a matter of fact, see the math below with a 2%/yr loss rate:

Year		Beg Q		2%/yr loss		End Q
2001		316		-6.32		309.68
2002		309.68		-6.1936		303.4864
2003		303.4864		-6.069728		297.4167
2004		297.4167		-5.948333		291.4683
2005		291.4683		-5.829367		285.639
2006		285.639		-5.712779		279.9262
2007		279.9262		-5.598524		274.3277
2008		274.3277		-5.486553		268.8411
2009		268.8411		-5.376822		263.4643
2010		263.4643		-5.269286		258.195
2011		258.195		-5.1639		253.0311
2012		253.0311		-5.060622		247.9705
2013		247.9705		-4.95941		243.0111
2014		243.0111		-4.860222		238.1509
2015		238.1509

<tbody>
</tbody>

 

[vivanshah]

1-2 percent sounds like a reasonable loss rate, considering that many NSXs don't accumulate all that many miles, not like cars commonly used as everyday drivers. 6000-7000 cars sounds reasonable to me. I'm sure quite a few of their owners never post to NSXprime, and the cars just sit in someone's garage, and maybe if they're lucky get driven on a nice day.

We know that the number of NSXs sold new in the United States is around 9000. (The NSXprime wiki mentions two numbers, 8949 and 8997.) And we know the VIN for each of them, thanks to Ben.

The only way you can make an estimate more reliable than guessing would be to run a Carfax on every NSX VIN, and tally the totals for each title status. (Granted, there will still be small differences, such as for cars subsequently imported or exported to or from the U.S., but they are minor.) Anybody want to run 9000 VIN's through Carfax? :biggrin:

In 2006, that same effort, to identify the number of cars for each title status, was actually undertaken for the Integra Type R, of which 3850 cars were sold new in the United States. You can view those results here.

while carfax no longer allows VIN searches on their unlimited option, it seems autocheck still does...and it's only $45. I could probably write a little program to grab all the data. Is there a wiki page or file that has a master list of all US vins? I found this http://www.nsxprime.com/wiki/Category:NSXRegistry#US_VINs but the page for each year does not have a complete list of VINs.

 

[nsxtasy]

while carfax no longer allows VIN searches on their unlimited option, it seems autocheck still does...and it's only $45. I could probably write a little program to grab all the data. Is there a wiki page or file that has a master list of all US vins? I found this http://www.nsxprime.com/wiki/Category:NSXRegistry#US_VINs but the page for each year does not have a complete list of VINs.

You have mail.

 

[blue_myriddn]

while carfax no longer allows VIN searches on their unlimited option, it seems autocheck still does...and it's only $45. I could probably write a little program to grab all the data. Is there a wiki page or file that has a master list of all US vins? I found this http://www.nsxprime.com/wiki/Category:NSXRegistry#US_VINs but the page for each year does not have a complete list of VINs.

Autocheck's unlimited is *NOT* unlimited. We tried when we did this project and found that we could run about 100 cars before we got very nasty letters from Autocheck wanting us to purchase a commercial license. To do this properly, you will need access to a commercial account for VIN checking.

 

[vivanshah]

Autocheck's unlimited is *NOT* unlimited. We tried when we did this project and found that we could run about 100 cars before we got very nasty letters from Autocheck wanting us to purchase a commercial license. To do this properly, you will need access to a commercial account for VIN checking.

well that certainly puts a damper on things..thanks for the info.

 

[dirtbag]

The government has the data. All of it.. Whether it has been hacked or accessible to the public yet is my question. More municipalities are requiring all vehicles to be actively registered (road worthy or not), and inspected with no lapse. Insurance companies are also required to provide coverage information to motor vehicles departments.

Internet calling Snowden, how many NSX's are left? lol.

 

[DigitalFusion]

Has anyone ever tried reaching out directly to carfax or autocheck? If we explained we were an enthusiast group trying to figure this out perhaps they would be willing to work something out in exchange for some advertising here, or something. We aren't looking for full reports on all nsxs, just a list of the the last registrations or something. We could even create a table of all vins with last registration date, accidents yes/no, and a dynamic link to purchase the vehicle report for each vin. We'd help drive traffic and sales to them and they'd help us answer this question

I'm a software dev/engineer, I'd be more than willing to help create this

 

[tof]

dirtbag is right. Every DMV has a database of every car registered in their state with the VIN, model, year, etc. Pretty sure all this also goes up to the Feds. There should be a way to gain access to the information through a federal agency...Freedom of Information Act? There would probably be a nominal fee to cover the cost. It would have to be clear that no person-identifying content would be sought. Just the number of NSX VINs registered currently...or possibly year by year over the last 24 years.

Most law firms have a subscription to Lexis/Nexis. Aren't there any attorneys on Prime who could do the inquiry? Here's the link to the help page:
http://help.lexisnexis.com/tabula-r...s-field?lbu=GB&locale=en_GB&audience=business

 

[warrenw]

Don't forget the 700 - 1000 that have been exported to Canada (guess only)
Canada only received 701 cars through all production years. A few Canadian cars made it to the US, but just as many US cars as Canadian cars are here now.
I imported one, and have seen just as many US cars here as Canadian Cars.

 

[Brylek]

Many NSXs have been crashed and insurance companies declared total loss on them, but most were rebuilt and are now driving around with branded titles. There were cars that were never sold to the public, from what I recall the first NSX to be sold in the US had serial number 63, first 5 for 2002 also never surfaced. Some cars are modified to "a point of no return" and used as race cars and others were exported overseas.

My personal guess is that 450-900 out of the entire 9000 US cars have branded titles but are still around and another 200-500 were either sold for parts after crashed or exported outside of North America.

I could be way off.

 

[BETRNSX]

In the U.S.? Well you can add another one that I just imported from Canada.

 

[docjohn]

there is a logarithmic decay curve for the nsx...imagine having one of the last surviving examples in 50 years...

 

[BlackTop99]

there is a logarithmic decay curve for the nsx...imagine having one of the last surviving examples in 50 years...

I think we know exactly where this is going...

 

[BlackTop99]

Thanks for the responses. Still, there has to be someone, somewhere that has access to the registration databases. I wish they would just make the numbers public. It's not exactly a huge invasion of privacy to simply display the numbers.

I had an idea that we can use the UK as a model, there were 215 registered in 2001 and only 129 in 2015. That is a loss of 86 or 40% of registered NSXs in 14 years. If the rate in the US is similar and we take it back to 1992.. I'm thinking 4000 is actually more than plausible which is a surprise even to me. I understand that a lot may be track only and others may have been exported or simply garaged for preservation, but still...40% in 14 years???

Using a compounding formula with the UK's average loss rate at 2.86% annually we'd be looking at 4615 left today on the road.

Bumping this thread for you. Here's your answer:
http://www.nsxprime.com/2016/06/24/fewer-than-68-of-1st-gen-us-nsxs-remain-registered/