$164,600 MSRP
$150,000 selling price
$030,000 Cap Reduction
$120,595 Cap Cost (includes $595 lease acquisition fee)
$88,884 54% residual amount
0.00180 money factor
Not including taxes you would have 36 payments of $1,257.92
While there are certainly dealerships that have lost money selling their remaining 2017's those dealerships are few and far between. When making your offer remember that the dealerships invoice price is roughly 92.5% of MSRP. Realistically most dealers should be willing to sell at invoice at this point in time which leaves them a few thousand dollars of profit from hold backs. Here is a scenario that I think the dealer would be very willing to accept and is still phenomenal deal for you.
$164,600 MSRP
$152,500 selling price
$300,000 Cap Reduction
$123,095 Cap Cost (includes $595 lease acquisition fee)
$88,884 54% residual amount
0.00180 money factor
Not including any taxes you would have 36 payments of $1,331.87.
Good luck!