Here's an update from the
New York Times...
Falling Costs of Big-Screen TV's to Keep Falling
Matsushita ElectricMatsushita may start a price war among plasma-screen producers.
By DAMON DARLIN
Published: August 20, 2005
In consumer electronics, as in much of life, good things happen to those who wait - good things as in plunging prices.
The cost of big-screen televisions, which have been steadily dropping by about 25 percent a year, are now expected to fall even more sharply this autumn, according to industry analysts. The coming markdowns reflect a singular confluence of business trends that will benefit consumers going into the holiday season.
"Prices are pretty much in a free fall," said David Naranjo, who tracks the television industry for DisplaySearch, a market research firm.
The best evidence of this is the expectation of analysts that in the next few weeks the Panasonic unit of the Matsushita Electric Industrial Company will announce that it is dropping prices as much as $500 on plasma-screen TV's that retail for around $3,500.
Panasonic officials refused this week to confirm or deny the speculation, but because it sells the most plasma screens in the United States, a potential downward adjustment would be considered a harbinger of a price war for all varieties of big-screen TV's.
The chief executive of the Syntax Groups, James Li, maker of the Olevia brand of flat-panel TV's, said, "If they go to $3,000, I will go to $2,999."
All this spells good news for anyone thinking about upgrading from the old cathode-ray TV to screens that are 40 inches or larger in the three most popular formats. Full-featured plasma TV's with 50-inch screens that sold for $20,000 five years ago could edge close to $4,000 this season. A liquid-crystal-display version and a rear-projection TV with a digital light-processing chip will be considerably less, closing in on $1,800.
That does not mean choosing a TV will be easy. No longer is it just a matter of price and size. There are no fewer than eight competing technologies, as well as different screen sizes and display standards that force you to grapple with a shape-shifting matrix of at least a dozen dimensions.
Let's try to cut through that. It used to be that liquid-crystal-display technology was for small screens, plasma for medium, and digital light processing for large. Though the TV's with digital light processing have been the best value, plasma had the technological advantage and could sell for more because screens were big and flat. Now L.C.D.'s are as large and D.L.P. TV's are flatter.
As the technologies overlap in the 32-inch to 46-inch screen sizes, the price differences narrow. A price cut in one technology forces cuts on the others, too.
While these changes make any purchasing decision more complex, the resulting markdowns should compensate for the headaches. "The consumer really holds the ace in this game," said Jonas Tanenbaum, director of flat-panel and direct-view marketing for Samsung Electronics North America.
The problem with buying any new technology is that tomorrow it will be cheaper - and better. So why not wait some more? When you buy a depreciating asset, it always makes sense to wait as long as you can. But at this stage in the introduction of big-screen high-definition TV sets, consumers are unlikely to get whipsawed by radical new technology that leaves them regretting their purchase.
This year there are several compelling reasons for trading up to a bigger TV, especially one that offers high-definition. Nascar and the National Football League have begun broadcasting events in high-definition. (When it comes to $2,000 TV-purchasing decisions, surveys show men control the purse strings.)
The TV networks are broadcasting more high-definition content, but it isn't all that exciting to watch Paul Kangas read the "Nightly Business Report" on PBS in crisp clarity. Seeing the sweat knocked off the face of a sacked quarterback could be a thrill.
Content matters. " Walt Disney's Wonderful World of Color" began broadcasting in 1961, but manufacturers recall that sales of color TV's did not take off until the mid-1960's, after the broadcasters put most of their programming in color.
Driving big-screen prices below $2,000 - about what a color TV cost in the late 1960's, adjusting for inflation - is also expected to increase demand this year. A number of factors are causing that to happen faster than anyone expected. Manufacturers in China and Taiwan, the so-called Tier 3 makers that few consumers have ever heard of like Vestel, Changchong or Xoceco, are dropping heavily discounted L.C.D. TV's into general merchandise stores like Costco and Wal-Mart or at online discounters.
Manufacturers with high profit margins have as much to fear from Texas. Dell is applying to TV's the low-cost supply chain and direct-to-consumer sales model that struck such envy and dread in the personal computer industry. While others were selling 42-inch plasma screens for $7,000, it blasted into the market with one for $3,500. It can do that because it does well on margins around 16 percent.
The well-known Japanese and Korean manufacturers, with margins closer to 40 percent, are finding they must trim prices or lose sales. Some are trying to get retailers to trim their margins of about 10 percent to offer TV's for even less. Dell is now selling the 42-inch high-definition plasma screen for $2,600 and the company suggests it could go lower as it gets further deals on components.
Michael Farello, Dell's vice president for United States consumer electronics, said he was recently looking at Dell ads from the mid-1990's comparing its $3,500 PC's with other makers' units at $6,000. "This isn't the first time this has happened," he said.
Amid all this new competition, new factories in Asia are cranking out flat-panel displays. Economic theory holds that as volumes go up, costs go down. TV manufacturers can lower prices and cover the cost of the expensive new plants with the increased volume of TV set sales. But too many of the big makers decided to build plants, so now there is an oversupply of plasma screens that threatens to grow even larger. That will force manufacturers like Panasonic, Philips Electronics, the Samsung Electronics Company and the Sony Corporation to cut prices even more to soak up some of that overproduction through the rest of this decade.
"Price is being led by capacity," says Gary Merson, editor of the HDTV Insider newsletter.
Aren't you glad you waited?
Video about pros and cons of each format
New York Times
Snowed? This May Help When Deciding What to Buy
By DAMON DARLIN
Published: August 20, 2005
If you want a really inexpensive television and you are not concerned about picture quality - in other words, the TV is going into the children's room or the basement - buy an off-brand now.
For brand names, the Christmas season looks better than ever, and industry analysts expect prices to drop more right after the holidays.
Now that the price hurdle has been cleared, what about the dozen other factors you should consider? The best way to get a handle on them is to answer these questions:
Where will you watch?
Big-screen TV's look best when there is some distance between the screen and you. The rule of thumb is multiply the distance in feet by 7 to get the maximum screen size in inches. In a kitchen, a smaller screen makes more sense, so the best value is a liquid-crystal-display screen. In a living room, you will want plasma or a rear-projection TV that uses a digital light-processing chip. Plasmas can go flush to the wall.
When will you watch?
In a dark room, plasma and D.L.P. sets have the advantage over L.C.D. Plasma, though, is not as good in a bright room because light reflects off the screen. If you watch while doing something else, exercising off to the side or lying on the floor, the wider viewing angle of plasma has the advantage.
What will you watch?
If you are a sports fan, L.C.D. screens may be annoying because fast-moving objects blur. Plasma handles that better and D.L.P. excels. If your waiting list of movies at Netflix is in the hundreds, you might consider TV's that promise a display resolution of "1080p," which means two million pixels of light are displayed. Beware that not all that boast of 1080p use the most sophisticated microchips. Check reviews at Cnet.com or in magazines like Sound and Vision.
Finally, a word about brand names. If you think well-known names are a guarantee of high quality, guess again. No-name Chinese or Taiwanese manufacturers have licensed those famous names.
But best-selling upstart names are no guarantee of quality either. Even though Olevia, which is assembled in California by the Syntax Groups, nearly outsells Hitachi and Sanyo combined, reviews at Cnet.com do not rate its TV's as highly.
Sony and the other high-end Japanese makers have been joined by Samsung and LG of Korea. Confining yourself to those choices is safe, but it also means that on a $2,000 television you are paying about $400 for the little badge on the front.
I start sounding like you! 
