At least the seller didn't use his thumb to cover up the license plate
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***STICKY*** Gen1 NSX Current Market Analysis
I don't have the ability to PM you, [MENTION=32200]RacerXwing[/MENTION], but I have info on 4 more private transactions that may be interesting to you. Feel free to DM me if you can.
'91 red / black, ~87k miles, 3 owners, all maintenance up to date, stock except wheels
'91 red / tan, ~83k miles, 2 owners, TB / WP service due, stock except audio system and CAI
This one sold: http://www.nsxprime.com/forum/showt...e-Black-Black-5-Speed-55180-JH4NA1153NT000579
And the one I bought: http://www.nsxprime.com/forum/showt...e-Black-Black-6-Speed-77500-JH4NA1152MT002631
'91 red / black, ~87k miles, 3 owners, all maintenance up to date, stock except wheels
'91 red / tan, ~83k miles, 2 owners, TB / WP service due, stock except audio system and CAI
This one sold: http://www.nsxprime.com/forum/showt...e-Black-Black-5-Speed-55180-JH4NA1153NT000579
And the one I bought: http://www.nsxprime.com/forum/showt...e-Black-Black-6-Speed-77500-JH4NA1152MT002631
Wow, it went for $98k + fees, and it's a standard black on black car. I suppose that question is now answered!
The polished 97-01 wheels on that one are worth over $2k not counting tires. I wonder if anyone has been keeping track of parts prices? I used to have a good idea on S2000s but stopped keeping track years ago.
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Yep! That was my guess, including fees:
That spreadsheet makes it super easy to guess where things are going to land. Of course, it's also confirmation bias in a way; likely buyers are studying it and anchoring on those prices.
I imagine there is too much cardinality there for RacerXWing to capture in his sheet. Even though mods have an average of 0% impact on price, I counted my rebuilt motor and 6-speed swap as valuable add-ons to the base price of the car. I'm not sure I would have done the same for carbon fiber hood/trunk, aftermarket sound, wheels, etc.
I don't think there's any way to manage it in that sheet - or even for him to take that on, as it would be a lot of work. I'd consider it more of an appendix than anything else, as the effect on pricing would likely be considered a soft modifier as everyone thinks about parts in different ways. One person may think of those wheels as adding $2000, another might think of them as adding $2000 minus the cost of fat fives plus tires plus labor, and another might think of it as simply a freebie / take it or leave it sort of thing. Too much variance, but some parts are trending upwards strongly. S2000 hardtops have gone from $2000-3000 (2005-2007) to $4000 around 2016-17 and have creeped up to the $5000 mark currently! That $2000 increase is 10% of many of the cars' values. Just idle thoughts, you know?
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Thanks for this information as I am contemplating selling my car within the next couple years or so with similar mileage.
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> The polished 97-01 wheels on that one are worth ~$3k.
Is this statement backed by data? I haven't seen any seven spokes set sell for more than fifteen hundred. Price will go up in the future once more 91-01 owners come to senses and realize that 02+ wheels don't look that great on early cars. Similar thing with fat fives. As these cars shift into classic category more and more there would be more demand for originality.
Is this statement backed by data? I haven't seen any seven spokes set sell for more than fifteen hundred. Price will go up in the future once more 91-01 owners come to senses and realize that 02+ wheels don't look that great on early cars. Similar thing with fat fives. As these cars shift into classic category more and more there would be more demand for originality.
Oh, man. The irony of that is not lost on me. Totally had the number wrong, thanks for correcting. They are now exceeding 2k, not 3k.
There is a guy here in San Diego who takes the old fat fives and makes them a nice looking three piece wheel with polished lip.
I've got two sets of fat fives if anyone is interested :biggrin:
I've got two sets of fat fives if anyone is interested :biggrin:
Thank you for the kind words! I PM'ed you.
I do wonder how much the valuation data is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, but sadly I can't think of any way to answer that.
I do identify NSXs with some specific mods beyond the general level of modification, like a 6 speed swap and facelift conversion for example, but I don't have enough data to produce meaningful results in that area.
I've found that, in general, modifications reduce the potential audience of an NSX. Increasing modifications create more of an artistic, individualized expression of an NSX, rather than the constant, universal original NSX. Some potential buyers are willing to pay more for the specific modifications of an NSX, while others are not. This leads to a high variability in the sale strength of modified NSXs.
New to the Prime family and hopefully purchasing an NA1 from a fellow user soon. This is fantastic work, beautifully done, and validated my thoughts around price. Much appreciated and glad you are still keep it updated! :smile:
Another clean stock 91 Sebring silver 5 speed with 110k just went for $42k on BaT
Low 40's seems to be the sweet spot right now on BaT for higher mileage NA1's
Low 40's seems to be the sweet spot right now on BaT for higher mileage NA1's
I've updated the Valuation Document (link in the first post and in my signature). I've reorganized it in a way I feel is more user friendly, added more graphs, and simplified other graphs. My objective is to present the pricing information more clearly first, then provide more market context later. Thank you for all the support and kind words I've received so far.
Could you explain your strongest/weakest sales methodology?
Looks like he's taking the year/mileage and judging by sale price.....
like a 92 with 60K miles selling for $43,855 is considered a weak sale
A 92 with 120K miles sells for $43,500 is a strong sale I'm guessing
Good stuff!! I've noticed it seems they only seem to be selling on auction sites like BaT and EBay
People asking crazy prices on Prime, Autotrader, etc the cars just sit there for months....the last car to sale here on Prime looks like it was in April and it was a killer deal on a very clean black on black NA1 for $43K
Good question. Simply put, the Strongest Sale is the sale with the highest percentage above the nominal value, while the Weakest Sale is the sale with the highest percentage below the nominal value.
For each NSX that sells, I compare the actual sale price to my model-predicted nominal value to produce an index. For example:
- An NSX that sells at $40,000 with a nominal value of $40,000 has an index of 40000/40000 = 1.00, or +0% sale strength
- An NSX that sells at $50,000 with a nominal value of $40,000 has an index of 50000/40000 = 1.25, or +25% sale strength
- An NSX that sells at $30,000 with a nominal value of $40,000 has an index of 30000/40000 = 0.75, or -25% sale strength
I calculate this index for each NSX that sells. The strongest sale for each NSX type is the sale with the largest index, or the highest percentage sale above nominal value. The weakest sale for each NSX type is the sale with the smallest index, or the highest percentage sale below nominal value.
I hope that clears it up.
Thanks for the info. I think I'm still confused if you're using nominal to mean value from the top graph or value from the top graph then adjusted for special factors. Are you calculating two different "strength" values- one reported in the Str column which adjusts for special factors and another one that just compares sales price to the value on the first graph (which you report on strongest/weakest sales prices) Is this the formula you use- Str column is sales price/(price obtained from top graph * any special factor adjustment)? Looking at the 6/30 sale at least aligns with that math. Would it be hard to add a column with the % on the strongest/weakest tables?
One other question-how often does the special factor % get updated? Is it recalculated with each sale?
Hopefully my questions make some sense and aren't too confusing. BTW- this is one of the best uses of docs I've ever come across.
Right now you have too few posts for him to PM you or vice versa...I "think" the magic number is 10 posts before the PM ability kicks in.
Thanks Flopshot for your willingness to provide data! I am unfortunately also unable to PM you, so I think the best option is to wait until you gain PM abilities. I wish there were a better way.
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I'll reach out when I hit that milestone.
or you could just share it on here if you like.....it's not unheard of around here:smile:
strong money
this one looks like it is going to bring strong money..... still a whole week to go... https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2005-acura-nsx-11/
@RacerXwing it looks like there is a problem with your google doc..... in the first chart it looks like you lost 1/2 of your NA2 facelift sales data
this one looks like it is going to bring strong money..... still a whole week to go... https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2005-acura-nsx-11/
@RacerXwing it looks like there is a problem with your google doc..... in the first chart it looks like you lost 1/2 of your NA2 facelift sales data
I agree, looking forward to watching it.
Good point Cascade. What you saw there is not an error, but the result of an battle between amount of data and accuracy of data. To help mitigate the relatively low sale data on the NA2 Facelift, I combine data from multiple years of sales into the same value model, but only if the values are similar to the prior year(s). The NA2 Facelift has seen significantly stronger sale prices in all sales so far in 2020, so I made the decision to reset the value model to use only 2020 data. So what you saw was a change from a model built with 2018-2020 data to only 2020 data. This decreased the amount data in the value model, but now the remaining data is a more accurate representation of the NA2 Facelift Market this year.
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