What will happen to the housing market if...

[Mike-san]

the govt. is successful in getting the lenders to freeze ARMS rates in order to prevent foreclosures. I see this as a temp fix, but it still pisses me off....I've been holding off buying because I'm responsible enough to know what I can and can't afford, yet irresponsible people who went ahead and bought anyway are now being given a helping hand ?

 

[sahtt]

I've been going over potential government resolutions to this since late August. First, realize that everything Paulson and the rest of the guys are saying is still theoretical at this point, regardless of their confidence levels. They are being demanded to come up with something and do it quickly.

Trying to coordinate such a policy with banks is going to be extremely complex, I can't imagine the "fine print" involved with this potential scheme. Slightly off topic, but I'd reserve your discontent for those that deserve it, the vast majority of the people getting or about to be getting financially ruined by ARM resets etc. had little to no idea what they were getting themselves in to. The house flipping 'professionals' are not the focus of this plan. The mortgage brokers and careless banks are the ones that need to be blamed. Many people will be imprisoned before we as a country move on from this based on how I see it unfolding.

Let's go with this and see where it takes us. We'll assume the bulk of future forclosures are going to come from the inability to pay after the ARM resets. That's a big assumption-but let's run with it.
At that point, one of two things has to happen to form a 'solution'. One would be somehow providing the ability for the home owner to refinance the loan, as was done in the past. This is either going to take extremely generous donations from the government (or the banks but that's so laughable I won't include it) or property values are going to have to immediately stop their decline then increase, which is uncontrollable. The crux of this situation is that with decreasing home values, refinancing to escape the ARM's is near impossible given the negative equity situation and our current financial 'tactics' per say.

The other, similar in nature, is the government is going to once again have to the rescue and literally force the banks to "give up" and restructure all these loans 'para gratis'. I don't see either of those as feasible, the amount of money needed is estimated to be in the TRILLIONS to go house by house and fix the equity problems. Our dollar is already under tremendous pressure and rates are already pretty low although I believe they'll be at 3-3.5% within a year.

With our economy inarguably IMO slowing, the dollar's decline, government spending under great pressure, a full scale 'bail out' seems extremely unlikely. I hope they figure something out but hope never got me too far without action.

 

[NSXGMS]

the govt. is successful in getting the lenders to freeze ARMS rates in order to prevent foreclosures. I see this as a temp fix, but it still pisses me off....I've been holding off buying because I'm responsible enough to know what I can and can't afford, yet irresponsible people who went ahead and bought anyway are now being given a helping hand ?

I see this as more of a government bailout for the lenders. It will help them retain the loans in their portfolios making them more credit worthy and liquid. Right now, lenders have never been this illiquid. All their cash is tied up in homes sitting on the market, either pre or post foreclosure. Some people file bankrupty and it freezes everything. The lenders just can't get their money out. And their portfolios are all but worthless because of the high risk of default in them.

As far as these people getting a "helping hand", prices wouldn't have gotten as high as they did unless these people were buying. Now prices are coming down. The benefit to making your payments is that you get to stay in your home. These people don't. What happens to them really doesn't affect you. Be thankful for them or you'd be looking at much higher prices when you go to buy now.

The market isn't going to be rising generally in the next couple years by all indications. Any time between now and then should be a good time to buy. I'd even wait for the next round of foreclosures to hit later this year as many of the ARMs won't be frozen due to inability to keep current on the mtg. (one of the requirements for extending the fixed rate period of the ARM).

I'd say anytime between now and 2010 should be a good time to buy. Believe me, this foreclosure wave is far from over. Also keep in mind the trends are keeping within their historical norms. 7-10 year periods of appreciation followed by 3-7 years of stabilization/decline.

My advice to anyone looking to buy right now is to stay within your means but wait for that perfect house. The market is slow and gems that would get swooped up after 1 day on the market are now taking weeks to sell-- increasing the chances you'll find it first. And the prices of the nicer homes are much more flexible now. A nice house doesn't gaurantee the seller holds all the cards. Only be willing to pay top dollar if it's the home you must have.

 

[nsxotic911]

Darn, should have kept my 3 year arm last year and get a freebie...

All things being equal, people will buy as much house as they can afford, or for those bear'sh, as litlte house as absolutely necessary.

Holding ARM's should be a good kick in the butt for those that got in over their heads to refinance or sell and downsize. Still, I think this is a great time to buy, as was yesterday.. and as is tomorrow.

A good house (this is the hardest part) + good loan + good strategy over 5+ years holding = Great Investment. A 20/30K even 50K difference (depending on market) will not matter if held for 5+ years.

RE has averaged 7%+ (high as 12%+ in some areas) over the last 30 years, and even when there was a "decline" it was only a few percentage points below zero. Immediately afterwards (the early 80s for example) was a huge rebound. Factor in the leverage (5,10,20% down) and even with real estate only appreciating 7%+, you get a much larger return on your money. As such, one of the intriguing things I find about RE investment comparison vs Stocks is Stock lovers that say "Stocks have returned 12%+ a year..RE has return ~7%) Yeah, this is assuming you put 100% down (which 90% of people don't) and doesn't take into advantage tax breaks as a result of the purchase. It's not a 1:1 comparison.

In my case.. I just bought a house and paid good money (eg "expensive" by today's market). Nonetheless I feel I am making a good investment. In a few years, once the scare is over, the extra goodies in the house (4000 sq ft, 1/2 acre lot, private driveway, soon to be new lift :biggrin: ...) will make it very desirable imho over what the market "normally has" and will justify a premium.

 

[NSXGMS]

Trying to coordinate such a policy with banks is going to be extremely complex, I can't imagine the "fine print" involved with this potential scheme. Slightly off topic, but I'd reserve your discontent for those that deserve it, the vast majority of the people getting or about to be getting financially ruined by ARM resets etc. had little to no idea what they were getting themselves in to. The house flipping 'professionals' are not the focus of this plan. The mortgage brokers and careless banks are the ones that need to be blamed. Many people will be imprisoned before we as a country move on from this based on how I see it unfolding.

I disagree.

It's going to be very difficult to prove that someone who signs multiple documents explaining in very plain terms exactly what their payment is, what it will adjust to, what an adjustable mortgage is, how it works and when it will adjust didn't know what they were getting into. I guess we have to throw caveat emptor out the window these days.

What's this world coming to if people can't even be held responsible for things they sign and are supposed to read and that are clearly spelled out for them in multiple areas? Very few people who made their payments on time couldn't have refinanced when their prepayment penalty was up (if applicable) and before the loan went adjustable. If they were upside down perhaps it was because they didn't do their market research properly at he time and their realtor gave them bad advice--not the lender.

A little known fact: all mortgage lenders I know (hundreds) of have an internal requirement called the "benefit to borrower" requirement. This means the loan has to make sense and benefit the borrower in some tangible way. All files are reviewed and reasons documented. I promise you that every mortgage loan closed has the i's dotted and the t's crossed. The lenders will be able to justify the fundings, and the loan officers will be able to justify disclosure of facts based on notarized loan documents and other state and federal disclosures always required. If the lenders' guidelines were too loose and the loans defaulted they have no one to blame but themselves.

We've been in this mortgage mess for nearly a year now and surprisingly enough--no lawsuits. Don't you think with all the bored, creative and inventive lawyers out there someone would have been sued by now? People have lost their homes, lenders are going belly up--yet no lawsuits. I doubt you'll see any if you haven't seen them by now. There are too many ambulance chasers to not see any lawsuits up to this point unless they are totally baseless, which they are.

 

[heySkippy]

What will probably happen is the lenders will get a bailout and the homeowner who gets a break will be taxed on the value of the break.

 

[sahtt]

I disagree.

It's going to be very difficult to prove that someone who signs multiple documents explaining in very plain terms exactly what their payment is, what it will adjust to, what an adjustable mortgage is, how it works and when it will adjust didn't know what they were getting into. I guess we have to throw caveat emptor out the window these days.

What's this world coming to if people can't even be held responsible for things they sign and are supposed to read and that are clearly spelled out for them in multiple areas? Very few people who made their payments on time couldn't have refinanced when their prepayment penalty was up (if applicable) and before the loan went adjustable. If they were upside down perhaps it was because they didn't do their market research properly at he time and their realtor gave them bad advice--not the lender.

A little known fact: all mortgage lenders I know (hundreds) of have an internal requirement called the "benefit to borrower" requirement. This means the loan has to make sense and benefit the borrower in some tangible way. All files are reviewed and reasons documented. I promise you that every mortgage loan closed has the i's dotted and the t's crossed. The lenders will be able to justify the fundings, and the loan officers will be able to justify disclosure of facts based on notarized loan documents and other state and federal disclosures always required. If the lenders' guidelines were too loose and the loans defaulted they have no one to blame but themselves.

We've been in this mortgage mess for nearly a year now and surprisingly enough--no lawsuits. Don't you think with all the bored, creative and inventive lawyers out there someone would have been sued by now? People have lost their homes, lenders are going belly up--yet no lawsuits. I doubt you'll see any if you haven't seen them by now. There are too many ambulance chasers to not see any lawsuits up to this point unless they are totally baseless, which they are.

NSXGMS, my personal experience differs with yours. My father (previously President of the Texas Land and Title Association and currently part owner of multiple title insurance companies) worked for the last several years helping out low income people with finding affordable housing in Texas, specifically the Houston area.

Day after day after day people come in (remember, this is a non-profit institution so these are not necessarily our college educated peers I'm refering to) on the edge of financial ruin because they got involved with a loan they did not understand. There was one couple (both deaf) that actually paid to have their house refinanced *twice* during the original mortgage process for their first home. This kind of reckless behavior is far from uncommon and IMO is a large part of this problem.

People are being sued, my father is sueing several companies as we speak on behalf of several disabled clients that were the most severely taken advantage of. I get an up close and personal experience with many who were taken advantage of. Was it their fault as well? Sure. But what they asked for and what they were given were not the same and while the brokers get their commission and jaguars they are stuck with the clean up. WE are stuck with the clean up. Certainly this is not the root of all of these problems, but the general recklessness of financial institutions from hedge funds to big banks to debt rating agencies to home apraisers increased rapidly over the last 2-5 years.

 

[Daedalus]

As for the risks of "moral hazard" that Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and others have warned about if the Fed were to make such a move, HCM would echo Mr. Kohn's statement that there is "no need to hold the economy hostage to teach a very small minority of the population a lesson." That very small minority is hardly the one that would suffer serious pain were the Fed to take it upon itself to punish America for their sins. Having bailed out Wall Street in the past as a collateral effect of providing financial support to foreign nations (Mexico) or large hedge funds (Long Term Capital Management), the Fed shouldn't have to engage in any heavy intellectual or moral lifting to justify lowering rates today in order to enable more Americans to retain their homes and keep food on the table.

Above is from Michael E. Lewitt, Managing Member and President of Hegemony Capital Management. Basically, don't cut off your nose to spite your face.

The lenders will do whatever is in their best interests. Ignore the FOMC members and the politicians waving their hands. If it's better for the lenders to freeze rates to salvage some revenue, rather than get a bunch of foreclosures worth 60% of the loans, then they will freeze rates. If what they do is not good enough to satisfy the government, then the government will do whatever it takes to maintain stability and confidence in the financial system. If that involves taxpayer money, then so be it. It's all about taking the lesser of evils at this point, because the longer they wait, the fewer options they have. The whole system is in unchartered waters.

 

[Mike-san]

Wow !!! I never expected such detailed, articulate responses. Thanks for the enlightenment. As for those who state that we should not blame the buyers, but rather the deceptive lenders, etc....I understand that there are good people out there.......but, buying a home is an option....it's not like they were "forced" to look for a place to buy...I guess I would like to see some evidence of sacrafice....Get a 2nd job !!! Sell off the SUV's and plasmas !!! Get roommates........If these things don't work, sell the house you should not have purchased in the 1st place !!! I rent right now....they can too !!! ( Right SteveNY :biggrin: ? )

 

[ShiftyBob]

I purchased and sold 187 properties through my corporation between 2001 and 2006... ALL of them using ARM's! We had profit margins into the 7 digits off of that lending market alone. Out of that 187 properties... ZERO foreclosed, and I only have a select few left (less than 20). Probably the best thing to ever happen to Investors... but the worst thing to happen to the economy.

Right now, there is also legislation on the table to prevent these "home-buyers" from being hit with tax implications if their houses go up for short sale, or if they foreclose. If/when this legislation passes it will go retroactive back to Jan 07'.

Having said that... on my own 'personal' property (i.e. my house), I have a 30 year fixed. :wink:

 

[sahtt]

buying a home is an option....it's not like they were "forced" to look for a place to buy...I guess I would like to see some evidence of sacrafice....Get a 2nd job !!! Sell off the SUV's and plasmas !!! Get roommates........If these things don't work, sell the house you should not have purchased in the 1st place !!! I rent right now....they can too !!! ( Right SteveNY :biggrin: ? )

Most of the people "tricked" by ARM's aren't the types of people with SUV'(s!) and plasmas, in my experience. If your mortgage is 600 a month and that's what you are used to/have adjusted to, for better or worse, and resets to 1800 a month, you are fu**ed. End of story. Take a look at the progression of ARM's and similar loan products over the last 5-8 years. Originally, they were used by smart guys like ShiftyBob with a large safety net and a keen understanding of what they were getting in to. As the market topped, they were used to artifically keep the party rolling at whatever cost necessary. We are currently paying the piper on that deal. My cousin was nearly forclosed on because of an ARM loan, for example. He was "letting" his wife [nut case] handle it and although my father and I told them to get a fixed rate, etc., [they live off of social security/disability for 90% of their income] the mortgage broker swindled them into a loan that would put more $ in her pocket. They ended up being forclosed on and moved to Canada. Not a rare circumstance, except for the moving to Canada part perhaps.

 

[NSXGMS]

He was "letting" his wife [nut case] handle it and although my father and I told them to get a fixed rate, etc., [they live off of social security/disability for 90% of their income] the mortgage broker swindled them into a loan that would put more $ in her pocket.

So they failed to heed your warnings and got themselves in trouble? They don't sound like victims--more like fools, with all due respect. Fools and their money are soon parted. That's the downside to a free market system. As they say, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell them as well.

I guarantee the ARM allowed them to pay a much lower monthly payment than what they would have paid in a fixed rate. I'm willing to bet they didn't save a lot of that money.

Another thing you're not hearing about is how a very large contingent of these subprime ARMs were handed out to speculators and investors for investment properties who disguised the property as an owner-occupied. I think you would be surprised the amount of foreclosures for people with multiple homes. People who thought the market would keep going up, ignoring trends and not caring if they missed payments or not because they could flip and make lots of money any time.

And just for the record, not all ARMs make brokers more money than fixed rates. That is a fallacy. Brokers can usually make just as much on ARMs or fixed rates. The rates are typically much higher on the subprime fixed rate products so most borrowers opt, of their own free will, to accept the ARM as opposed to reduce their loan amounts. That is their choice. They are usually told that if they stay clean with payments they can refinance out in 2 or 3 years before the rate goes adjustable but they somehow magically don't seem to keep clean.

Don't kid yourself. Everyone is hopping on the "I got fooled" bandwagon hoping to cash in. I just see too much reassigning of blame in this country today. Americans have had a hard time taking responsibility for their actions for a long time now. They want to be bailed out by the welfare state. At this point it's probably better for the country as a whole to help but it's still essentially welfare. There's no way to regulate people deciding to live beyond their means and spend recklessly. People are going to make mistakes in a free society and a free market and they've got to be made to pay the consquences. These people have to go back to renting. It's not the end of the world. They don't end up on the streets.

Of course there are questionable brokers. But for every broker that hid the truth there are 10 that didn't and the borrower knew exactly what they were getting into. The vast, vast majority of brokers I know (dozens) are very honest and take ther jobs seriously, especially those who have been in business since the 90s.

 

[710]

…except for the moving to Canada part perhaps.

Talking about Canada, can anyone comment on what is going on there with respect to housing problems, while all this is happening in the States? Does it have the same situation, or is the loan system different there?
If so, in what way is it different? Other loan/housing safeguards? No safeguards?
Thanks.

 

[steveny]

The government is good at bailing out people or organizations who make bad choices. I see it everyday with my tenants and the free hand outs they get. It just makes me sick. When will the people who do the right thing be rewarded?

 

[Ryanmcd2]

If your low income I say give them a hand if they can't cut it. But if your a douchbag that is living in a 800k home because you want to show off you should have to move. They are going to take this case by case and if you can afford the adjust you will have to take it at least that is what I have heard from the banks.

 

[steveny]

I purchased and sold 187 properties through my corporation between 2001 and 2006... ALL of them using ARM's! We had profit margins into the 7 digits off of that lending market alone. Out of that 187 properties... ZERO foreclosed, and I only have a select few left (less than 20). Probably the best thing to ever happen to Investors... but the worst thing to happen to the economy.

Right now, there is also legislation on the table to prevent these "home-buyers" from being hit with tax implications if their houses go up for short sale, or if they foreclose. If/when this legislation passes it will go retroactive back to Jan 07'.

Having said that... on my own 'personal' property (i.e. my house), I have a 30 year fixed. :wink:

+1 and a big clap for shiftybob. Looks like you were in the right place at the right time. Good for you.

You are right about it being the best thing for investors. Those who have loaded the boat are going to be sitting pretty in 5 years time. Those who wait and got in late are going to sink. Those who have the boat half loaded and the other half of the cargo on the dock are going to be a little heavy and take a little longer to get up to speed but should be fine once they get in motion.

I am still finding it very easy to get cheap money but I have been using the same people for years. Others are not having the same luck. It's like the guy who speeds in the Lambo to 219mph and ruins it for all other exotic owners, or so everyone thinks. Fact is it didn't change a thing for those who didn't speed in the first place.

 

[steveny]

Wow !!! I never expected such detailed, articulate responses. Thanks for the enlightenment. As for those who state that we should not blame the buyers, but rather the deceptive lenders, etc....I understand that there are good people out there.......but, buying a home is an option....it's not like they were "forced" to look for a place to buy...I guess I would like to see some evidence of sacrafice....Get a 2nd job !!! Sell off the SUV's and plasmas !!! Get roommates........If these things don't work, sell the house you should not have purchased in the 1st place !!! I rent right now....they can too !!! ( Right SteveNY :biggrin: ? )

Damn straight. Put those houses up on the block so I can buy'em cheap and rent them right back to the person who just filed BK and can't get another loan for 10 years. Let him continue to pay for the house but in the end I own it. BAwwwHHAAAA.

We never saw the same jump out here in NY that a lot of other places had. Fact is, the market is up right now in NY. All the smart people started parking 1031 exchange money here in NY from their arbitrage profits made from California sales. They took their profits and put them into cheap rental property with big time cash flow profits. The end of cheap rental property in this area is near, at least until the foreclosures come.

I bet it would surprise a lot of people to know I have an ARM on my primary residence, but I use it like a big credit card and pay it down to zero and max it back out several times a year. I don't have ARM's on anything else, fixed rate only. The ARM I have on the primary has a rate that is more than 2 points below any of the fixed rate loans I have on the rentals.

The question we really need to be asking ourselves is what is the next big game. Where will the regulators loosen their grip and let that sector of the economy run away from itself. They have done it with the stock market, they did it with RE, whats next? Thats where I want to get my money NOW!

 

[steveny]

What will probably happen is the lenders will get a bailout and the homeowner who gets a break will be taxed on the value of the break.

Maybe but more like....those who can afford their payment will have some sort of additional charge tacked on their payment.

You know I find it really funny that soon after Katrina hit I was told, not asked, that I HAD TO put flood insurance on several of my properties, none of which are in a flood zone. I fought it and it was made impossible for me to prove they weren't in a flood zone. The papers that need to be stamped by an approved FEMA surveyor which do not exist around here because it NEVER floods here. What a freaking racket. So now I am being fleeced for a few extra thousand dollars a year.

I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see a foreclose "tax" on all future loans.

 

[steveny]

These people have to go back to renting.

YESSSSSS

They don't end up on the streets.

Well they will if they don't pay me the rent!

 

[robr]

This sort of sucks, I, like Mike, have been hoping and waiting for this collapse. I want all these houses to be foreclosed and I really don't see how anyone who bought one of these houses with an ARM had no idea what they were getting into. Real estate prices need to drop back down to sane levels so people like me can actually afford to buy a house instead of paying almost $2K/month in rent.

 

[Ryanmcd2]

I purchased and sold 187 properties through my corporation between 2001 and 2006... ALL of them using ARM's! We had profit margins into the 7 digits off of that lending market alone. Out of that 187 properties... ZERO foreclosed, and I only have a select few left (less than 20). Probably the best thing to ever happen to Investors... but the worst thing to happen to the economy.

Right now, there is also legislation on the table to prevent these "home-buyers" from being hit with tax implications if their houses go up for short sale, or if they foreclose. If/when this legislation passes it will go retroactive back to Jan 07'.

Having said that... on my own 'personal' property (i.e. my house), I have a 30 year fixed. :wink:

Why did you finance your house? Pay that thing off

 

[sahtt]

Talking about Canada, can anyone comment on what is going on there with respect to housing problems, while all this is happening in the States? Does it have the same situation, or is the loan system different there?
If so, in what way is it different? Other loan/housing safeguards? No safeguards?
Thanks.

I don't need to reitterate my position on who to 'blame' anymore, but I can be of service here. I don't know a huge amount about Canada's problems. Based on what I've read [too much], Canada has escaped most of them. Perhaps prevented or avoided are better terms though.

However, England [Northern rock anyone?], Germany, and many other EU countries are in a similar boat that we are as far as the easy money/real estate bubble/bad paper scenarios are concerned. Even if they weren't directly involved in it, big European banks are also having liquidity issues and most are owners of our bad debt, some huge holders.

 

[sahtt]

Don't kid yourself. Everyone is hopping on the "I got fooled" bandwagon hoping to cash in. I just see too much reassigning of blame in this country today. Americans have had a hard time taking responsibility for their actions for a long time now. They want to be bailed out by the welfare state. At this point it's probably better for the country as a whole to help but it's still essentially welfare. There's no way to regulate people deciding to live beyond their means and spend recklessly. People are going to make mistakes in a free society and a free market and they've got to be made to pay the consquences. These people have to go back to renting. It's not the end of the world. They don't end up on the streets.

Of course there are questionable brokers. But for every broker that hid the truth there are 10 that didn't and the borrower knew exactly what they were getting into. The vast, vast majority of brokers I know (dozens) are very honest and take ther jobs seriously, especially those who have been in business since the 90s.

I agree with the vast majority of your monologue of sorts. I'm usually the first to say america overspends, undersaves, etc. I have -0- debt besides a few grand of no interest college loans/grants. I've never paid one cent in CC interest or car payments. However, this situation is a little bigger than the lower/middle class getting 'greedy' IMO. It took a lot of misuse and looking the other way for many institutions and employees for this to happen. Do you honestly think "all of a sudden" in the past 3-5 years people starting choosing ARM's 3-10 times more than ever before all on their own? Especially people who obviously don't know anything about them? Do you think they came to this conclusion all by themselves, without influence from those who sold them the products? To me, to assume this as the main causation for "over" lending is ludicrous. Sure, many speculative buyers were overleveraged and NO ONE was willing to hedge appropriately against the "what if" of declining home values, but I won't sit idle knowing that appraisers, brokers, etc. had a lot to do with this directly, and banks indirectly. Like I've said, I've worked without too many people, mostly lower income, that were convinced to take these loans, not just offered them.

Sure my cousin is a bit of a moron, as is his wife. But I bet about 2/3 of America is right there with them. It's not coincidence they didn't take our advice, someone else was involved in the process that constantly told them to do otherwise. I don't know about in California or Hawaii, but down here in Texas the brokers I know are typically paid more for abstract/specialized loans than the standard 30 year fixed.

I went through this exact same process buying my mother a house and it's extremely easy to understand how we got in to this mess.

 

[ShiftyBob]

Why did you finance your house? Pay that thing off

Equity does me no good if I don't use it. Sure I could live mortgage free (taxes would still kill me though), but that money is better spent invested.

Let's just say my house was $500k, but I had payed it off. Now I'm living mortgage free... but, I also have a liability. Why a liability? Heaven forbid I get in an accident, or something and somebody sues me, the house will be the first thing they come after since it's paid off and they see an easy $500k. But, I could take that money, reinvest it and turn $500k into several millions in a matter of a 3-6 months. :wink:

 

[steveny]

This sort of sucks, I, like Mike, have been hoping and waiting for this collapse. I want all these houses to be foreclosed and I really don't see how anyone who bought one of these houses with an ARM had no idea what they were getting into. Real estate prices need to drop back down to sane levels so people like me can actually afford to buy a house instead of paying almost $2K/month in rent.

I got a nice place in the country with a 2 car garage for 900 a month or 89.9k and you own it. Real nice chicane on the way to the house too.:biggrin: