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***STICKY*** Gen1 NSX Current Market Analysis

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I wouldn't be too harsh on that price - pristine 02+ cars are easily hitting over 100k all day long. In the long run, the early models are going to be the most desired vehicles. That car will probalby hit $200k at some point. Not today of course, I think that is a feeler price - being more realistic would be knocking $100k off it. Still - nice to see some pricing like that for the health of the market.
 
Awesome data!! What engineering school did you graduate from?

Ed
 
NSXRS said:
Great data and analysis RacerXwing. I did not realize the midnight color was so rare.
Click to expand...

Thanks NSXRS. I hope you've checked the link in my signature for the updated data. We're up to 21 Midnights listings / sales since 2010, the 4th least common.
 
RacerXwing - I just looked over the spreadsheet data and boy that is impressive. Takes a lot of dedication to keep the stats current.

Midnight; although up to 21 still doesn't bode well for possibly acquiring one in the future. My favorite color of all the NSX and the search begins!
 
Late 2018 Update: State of the Market (Dysfunctional)

As 2018 approaches its end, I want to comment on market trends I observed this year. When the year properly ends, I will post the change in values when compared to 2017, but for now here is a short preview. Many have commented on the current state of the market, with many NSXs for sale on all listing platforms. For example, 80 Gen1s are currently for sale on Autotrader.com. However, this does not mean the market is weakening.

When NSXs do sell (eBay, Bringatrailer, auctions, etc) they are selling at values consistent with 2016 and 2017 values (except for NA1 Targa Manuals, which dropped in 2017 but increased above 2016 values in 2018). So why are so many for sale?
I believe part of the explanation is that actual values have not yet caught up to the listing prices you see. While values stayed generally the same since 2016, the listing prices have increased yearly for all NSX types. The market is generally not yet willing to pay those prices (with a few exceptions), hence they sit and remain for sale. Any new listing does the same, leading to a build up of cars available. There is a disconnect between perceived value and actual value.

I believe dealers are betting that eventually the market will shift, where prospective buyers will bite the bullet and be forced to pay their prices, but there is no telling when that will happen. I've seen at least 5 NSXs sell recently for market value, only to be revealed that a dealer bought the car and now they are listing it for $10+k over market value. All 3 of the NSXs currently for sale at the www.realmusclecar.com dealer meet this condition, for example. This creates a cycle where now both individuals and dealers believe the 'going rate' for NSXs is increasing (looking at listing prices only), so new listings follow the new pricing.

Dealers can likely afford to wait a while; some have had an NSX for sale for 2 years, holding out. However, an individual at the same listing prices is more likely to relent and lower their price when it is not selling. When they lower their price enough, a dealer usually buys it and now it is back on the market at an inflated price. Sometimes the same thing happens among dealers, and NSXs will "bounce" between multiple dealers in a sort of purgatory, never actually selling.

These two observations create a dysfunctional market where the same cars recycle back on the market for the same high prices, and newly listed NSXs add more water to the lake. Sure, some do actually make it through the dam and sell at these prices, but the general trend is making the reserves deeper and deeper. This condition seems unsustainable without a rise in demand, so I will be watching the market going forward with great interest.
 
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RacerXwing said:
Dealers can likely afford to wait a while; some have had an NSX for sale for 2 years, holding out. However, an individual at the same listing prices is more likely to relent and lower their price when it is not selling. When they lower their price enough, a dealer usually buys it and now it is back on the market at an inflated price.[/SIZE]

These two observations create a dysfunctional market where the same cars recycle back on the market for the same high prices, and newly listed NSXs add more water to the lake. Sure, some do actually make it through the dam and sell at these prices, but the general trend is making the reserves deeper and deeper. This condition seems unsustainable without a rise in demand, so I will be watching the market going forward with great interest.
Click to expand...

The only way to prove this is to track the VIN numbers of these suspect sales. Does your input data go to that level of detail?

EDIT - I see from your first post that it does when available.

I've seen a few posts from our Moderator [MENTION=5347]RSO 34[/MENTION] where he kindly tries to identify some of these types of sales for potential buyers.
 
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RacerXwing said:
As 2018 approaches its end, I want to comment on market trends I observed this year. When the year properly ends, I will post the change in values when compared to 2017, but for now here is a short preview. Many have commented on the current state of the market, with many NSXs for sale on all listing platforms. For example, 80 Gen1s are currently for sale on Autotrader.com. However, this does not mean the market is weakening.

When NSXs do sell (eBay, Bringatrailer, auctions, etc) they are selling at values consistent with 2016 and 2017 values (except for NA1 Targa Manuals, which dropped in 2017 but increased above 2016 values in 2018). So why are so many for sale?
I believe part of the explanation is that actual values have not yet caught up to the listing prices you see. While values stayed generally the same since 2016, the listing prices have increased yearly for all NSX types. The market is generally not yet willing to pay those prices (with a few exceptions), hence they sit and remain for sale. Any new listing does the same, leading to a build up of cars available. There is a disconnect between perceived value and actual value.

I believe dealers are betting that eventually the market will shift, where prospective buyers will bite the bullet and be forced to pay their prices, but there is no telling when that will happen. I've seen at least 5 NSXs sell recently for market value, only to be revealed that a dealer bought the car and now they are listing it for $10+k over market value. All 3 of the NSXs currently for sale at the www.realmusclecar.com dealer meet this condition, for example. This creates a cycle where now people believe the 'going rate' for NSXs is increasing (looking at listing prices only), so new listings follow the new pricing.

Dealers can likely afford to wait a while; some have had an NSX for sale for 2 years, holding out. However, an individual at the same listing prices is more likely to relent and lower their price when it is not selling. When they lower their price enough, a dealer usually buys it and now it is back on the market at an inflated price.

These two observations create a dysfunctional market where the same cars recycle back on the market for the same high prices, and newly listed NSXs add more water to the lake. Sure, some do actually make it through the dam and sell at these prices, but the general trend is making the reserves deeper and deeper. This condition seems unsustainable without a rise in demand, so I will be watching the market going forward with great interest.
Click to expand...

This analysis is a spot-on representation of the current market, although I'll add that (in my opinion, at least) dealers aren't the only ones to blame, many owners are also listing their cars for prices that are simply unreasonable. The market has slowed, and while actual selling prices haven't necessarily softened, it seems both owners and uninformed dealers have the impression that things are going upwards as opposed to the reality (stagnation).
 
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Mac Attack said:
The only way to prove this is to track the VIN numbers of these suspect sales. Does your input data go to that level of detail?

EDIT - I see from your first post that it does when available.

I've seen a few posts from our Moderator @RSO 34 where he kindly tries to identify some of these types of sales for potential buyers.
Click to expand...

Correct, Mack. The "at least 5 NSXs" that have sold at auction and gone to dealers are all verified to be the same cars via the VIN.

Sterling Sackey said:
This analysis is a spot-on representation of the current market, although I'll add that (in my opinion, at least) dealers aren't the only ones to blame, many owners are also listing their cars for prices that are simply unreasonable. The market has slowed, and while actual selling prices haven't necessarily softened, it seems both owners and uninformed dealers have the impression that things are going upwards as opposed to the reality (stagnation).
Click to expand...

Thank you for the support Sterling. I agree and that was my intention with the comment 'This creates a cycle where now people believe the 'going rate' for NSXs is increasing (looking at listing prices only), so new listings follow the new pricing.', to include both dealers and individuals. It's a vicious cycle driven by the misinformation that values are constantly rising.

For an extreme example of the disparity, see the following 2 NSXs, both 02-05 manuals with ~30k miles (both presumably clean-title).
  1. Offered by an individual, price has been continually dropping and still hasn't sold at $69k (https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=491267372)
  2. Offered by a dealer and for sale for 2 years, price held at $118k (https://www.newmilfordmotors.com/2003_Acura_NSX_New Milford_CT_10275127.veh)
That's a difference of nearly $50k in asking price. I expect the first one will sell soon and be re-listed at a dealer.
 
2018 Summary

As we all change our calendars over to the next year, it is time to reflect on the NSX market in 2018. Generally, NSX values are consistent with 2016 and 2017, with no statistically significant difference in sale prices. However, as I discussed in post 88, listing prices are a different dysfunctional story.

NA1 Coupe Manual:

NA1 Targa Manual:
  • After a rough year in 2017, where values generally decreased compared to 2016, especially at higher mileage, 2018 values are higher than both 2016 and 2017.
  • This NSX, which sold above its nominal value twice on BringaTrailer, contributed to the rise.

NA2 Targa (Pop-ups) Manual:

NA2 Targa (Facelift) Manual:


Please refer to section 4 to see the charts:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...giPanuhIfiHDIcsmwfqBxOUZJb_-WUwbcHb7L/pubhtml
 
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RacerXwing said:
Correct, Mack. The "at least 5 NSXs" that have sold at auction and gone to dealers are all verified to be the same cars via the VIN.



Thank you for the support Sterling. I agree and that was my intention with the comment 'This creates a cycle where now people believe the 'going rate' for NSXs is increasing (looking at listing prices only), so new listings follow the new pricing.', to include both dealers and individuals. It's a vicious cycle driven by the misinformation that values are constantly rising.

For an extreme example of the disparity, see the following 2 NSXs, both 02-05 manuals with ~30k miles (both presumably clean-title).
  1. Offered by an individual, price has been continually dropping and still hasn't sold at $69k (https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?listingId=491267372)
  2. Offered by a dealer and for sale for 2 years, price held at $118k (https://www.newmilfordmotors.com/2003_Acura_NSX_New Milford_CT_10275127.veh)
That's a difference of nearly $50k in asking price. I expect the first one will sell soon and be re-listed at a dealer.
Click to expand...

Super helpful information and explains a lot!! I am in search of an NSX and I keep finding cars that seem to have just bee bounced around multiple dealers/auctions for the past 12 months as if no one wants them.. but I think they are just part of this cycle you laid out. :-/
 
Effect of Sale Venue on Sale Prices

This analysis answers the question "what is the best place to sell an NSX?". Based on the data, Auction Houses are the worst. Now let's see why:

Sale Price Index Comparison

<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
PrivateAuctionBaT eBay
Average1.010.951.000.99
Std Dev0.140.170.140.13
Count1033446304

<tbody>
</tbody>

Firstly, the index is an indication of the "strength" of an NSX sale. I calculate it by dividing the actual sale price by my predicted sale price. An index above 1.00 indicates a strong, "over-indexing" sale, while an index less than 1.00 indicates a weak, "under-indexing" sale. I use the index to calculate the average effects of everything from special factors like the automatic transmission and a salvage title to the effect of each colors, now I will use it to break down the different sale venues.

This analysis only considers stock, clean-title, non-Zanardi NSXs to avoid skewing the index.

Auction Houses like Mecum, Barrett-Jackson, and Sotheby's represent the "Auction" category.
Sales reported privately to me, sales from the "what did you pay for your NSX and when" thread, and other person-to-person sale prices represent the "Private" category.

The results show:

  • eBay sales have a lowest average index, indicating the weakest sale prices, but not statistically significant. The lowest standard deviation indicates the most consistency of sale strength.
  • Auction Houses sales have the lowest average index, the 10% buyer's fee results in less money going to the seller. They also have a high standard deviation. This means the sale strength at auction houses is the most inconsistent. With these two factors, auction houses are the worst place to sell an NSX.
  • BringaTrailer sales have a low standard deviation.

The auction house result is statistically significantly different than the nominal index of 1.00, validating the result. All other sale venues are not statistically significantly different from the nominal index.

Edit 4/22/2019: this analysis is now included in the valuation document in section 1E.
 
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I think the same collectors are eyeing the original Supras now...prices for them are much higher marginally when compared to the original MSRP vs NSX. I did not think they are rarer than the NSX but to find a nonmoded or beat up Supra is maybe harder?
 
The recent Supra Turbo sale for $173k at the RM Sotheby's Auction certainly caught my attention. I think you're right in your thinking that it is comparably harder to find a non modded and beat up Supra. Additionally, the production of MKIV Supra Turbos is about 2000 fewer than the NSX. In my data, only 12% of NSXs are what I would consider heavily modified (at least a turbocharger or supercharger)
 
Hey Racer,

A couple of data point to consider for Canadian Private Sales and BJ that I'm aware off.

Sold 2018 -
1991 NSX $104.000 Canadian with 7001 KM

Sold 2018 -
1996 NSX $90,000 Canadian with 32000 KM

Sold 2019
2001 NSX $99,000 USD with 52 000 KM...sold at Barrett Jackson


Bram
 

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