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Apple stock,buy or no buy?

Joined
6 January 2009
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sacramento,ca
Interesting to hear what your thoughts are on aaple stock at the current price, let's hear your thoughts as to buy or stay away at current price?
 
I'm holding.For me its a long term play,and I would consider buying more into weakness.What that number is i don't know.You have to look at the supply side..is it getting its product to market efficiently,there were some china issues.
 
Not saying its the downfall of Apple, but Jobs is gone. Plus, Google and buying Motorola Mobile for their patents will be putting greater pressure on Apple. You may not see upward movement on AAPL like you once did.
 
Currently AAPL is in a down trend so don't think it's time to jump in just yet.

I do see strong support at around 530 so if you're looking to buy that's where I might start accumulate some shares.
 
Samsung galaxy S3 best selling phone in the world.

So? :confused:

We're talking stock prices here. Do you really want to compare Samesong and Apple stock over the last 3 years or so?

-J
 
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AAPL historically performs better the 2nd half of the year, so this is strange indeed... however, the stock market is not happy about the re-election of Obama or the impending "fiscal cliff" so some of it could certainly be attributed to that.

I dumped a bunch at 670 which looking back was a very good decision indeed. Holiday sales numbers will surely push it back up so I'd buy in again before those get announced if I was going to.
 
AAPL historically performs better the 2nd half of the year, so this is strange indeed... however, the stock market is not happy about the re-election of Obama or the impending "fiscal cliff" so some of it could certainly be attributed to that.

I dumped a bunch at 670 which looking back was a very good decision indeed. Holiday sales numbers will surely push it back up so I'd buy in again before those get announced if I was going to.

Apple started to fall before Obama's reelection. What caused the fall was that it fell short of analyst expectations, despite making gains compared to last year.

It was indeed strange as Oct is usually Apple's best month, and that is when it started to tank.

Keep in mind the iphone 5 sales numbers haven't affected the stock yet as there was only about a week of sales before the last quaterly financials were announced, so those will come in to play next quarter. Same with the ipad mini.

We also have to take into account the manufacturing/supply shortages (which seem to be easing up now), and some poor handling of so-called "flaws" with the iphone 5 (e.g. camera flare, maps, etc.) [i.e. Cook never should have apologized for any of this].

With Forstall out, and Ivy taking over UI development, I think we can finally expect some exciting things coming out from Apple from here on out.

On top of that, the China mobile announcement has already begun to push the stock back up close to the 550 range, and can only help from here on out.

My personal opinion is that Apple's recent plunge can be blamed on analysts more than anyone else, and I wouldn't be surprised if the market is being played for a fool so that a select few can make a few million. The news doesn't really align with Apple's performance, and problems have been blown out of proportion.
 
Im currently a hold as well, was really thinking of loading up today but hold off. I really think around 530 is a great buy, I can see it in the $600 mid to late December and will have a monstrous q4 earning. Decisions,decisions :biggrin:
 
Risk vs reward isn't good enough to risk capital IMO unless you A) have knowledge we do not and or B) you expect products to sell significantly better than the market is anticipating.

For a little background, I purchased AAPL with an average price of 92$ during the recession and sold out of my last tranche at 625$ (documented in the stock market thread with my decision process)

What's more likely, a 33% increase ($720) or 33% decrease ($360) from these levels? $360 sounds ridiculous but so does $720 in the current environment. You'd have to believe with near certainty $720 was more likely before risking capital (think 5 times+ more likely). I'd wait until you have a 2-3x upside (Betting $1300 AAPL soon?? Gulp!) so if all goes awry you can still potentially get a 50% return for taking significant risk.
 
Risk vs reward isn't good enough to risk capital IMO unless you A) have knowledge we do not and or B) you expect products to sell significantly better than the market is anticipating.

For a little background, I purchased AAPL with an average price of 92$ during the recession and sold out of my last tranche at 625$ (documented in the stock market thread with my decision process)

What's more likely, a 33% increase ($720) or 33% decrease ($360) from these levels? $360 sounds ridiculous but so does $720 in the current environment. You'd have to believe with near certainty $720 was more likely before risking capital (think 5 times+ more likely). I'd wait until you have a 2-3x upside (Betting $1300 AAPL soon?? Gulp!) so if all goes awry you can still potentially get a 50% return for taking significant risk.

Good call on AAPL selling at $625. I off loaded mine at $609 just before the earnings report. What's your take on the current market? Bullish or bearish? I've turned more bearish when S&P 500 broke 1,400. Also I believe most of the companies are guiding lower which is another bad sign.
 
I'm curious what any technical/analytical types think of AAPL at the moment, both for their opinions of the stock fundamentals and the company's offerings as of late. I'm considering selling 100% of my AAPL positions for the first time in 8 years.

I no longer follow the market daily and no longer subscribe to investor's business daily. I've been trading/staying in & out of AAPL since 2005 when it was $45.

At the time their market share was somewhere around 5% I believe, the ipod was just starting to really gain popularity across all ages, I felt their product offerings and potential was just spectacular, and their fundamentals were great. First time I felt a stock could not possibly go anywhere but up for the next 5 years assuming they'd keep up with their momentum.

I converted to Mac's from PC's at home in Aug of 2006 once they went to Intel. I haven't needed to upgrade my then-expensive-for-what-I-was-getting mac pro after 7 years other than adding RAM 5 years ago, so I remain happy with it - it's been the first computer since 1988 that I didn't feel became woefully outdated after just 2-3 years and I can still see using it for another 3-4 years minimum. That's still pretty amazing to me.

The last position I bought was at $199 several years ago and I haven't followed it closely since then due to work distractions. My intuition suggested to sell around $700 last year at this time but I did not. I'm feeling that intuition again, as I'm sensing real chinks in the armor.

First the antenna issue w/my iPhone 4 in 2010 and the maps fiasco a little later, with the maps app occasionally leading me astray outside of work and also making me late for work meetings at vendor locations...strike 1 but not a complete disaster in my mind since adding a lightweight rubber case and using Google Maps fixed both issues 100%. Then last year I realize my 2006 mac pro & 2010 1st gen ipad are "unupgradeable" - no more OS/iOS updates for them. It wasn't a huge deal but it did take me aback and was just about the first time Apple made me feel actual frustration and disatisfaction; my computer still works great but it's obvious that eventually some software won't work with my OS and Apple essentially may force me to trash my hardware even though it's still plenty fast for me. At least I didn't buy a PowerPC mac in 2006 which would have become obsolete much quicker.

Then the last straw - I converted to iOS7 a few days ago and have been *extremely* disatisfied. I haven't seen one single change that I felt was a noticeable improvement over iOS6 and most changes are steps backwards or seemingly change just for the sake of change. Whereas I was always amazed at Apple's design sense and intuitiveness, now I'm now often confused at the un-intuitiveness of iOS7 as well as the decreased readability/usability of pale font/background colors and reduced reduced/thin fonts. I'm frustrated with the use of random text on screens with no differentiation as to what text is for an "action" vs. what text is just "info text," compared to how iOS6 had intuitive representations of "buttons" for actions and just seemed to work so easily. The calendar app is horribly worse...I could go on but won't... iOS6 & prior just "worked" instantly for me and iOS7 leaves me constantly frustrated with no option to revert back now to iOS6. This is not a good sign to me for the big-picture direction of AAPL.

So to hopefully not turn this into an IOS7 discussion and instead focus on AAPL stock, I'll repeat:

I'm curious what any technical/analytical types think of AAPL at the moment, both for their opinions of the stock fundamentals and the company's offerings as of late, since I'm no longer researching the stock & company regularly. Anyone else feeling strong buy, hold, or sell sentiments?

Thanks!
 
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Yinzer,

I got long AAPL again at $400 a share. The risk vs reward was good again as nothing had changed business wise IMO (that has proven to be the case with the recent release of iphone sales). I would be a cautious buyer under $450 but not take a whole position at once. I am personally not going to buy anymore.

Don't let your personal experiences cloud your judgement - they have nothing to do with AAPL's revenue or margins. Overall IOS7 has been a success. Mine was buggy at first as well but I quickly sorted it out. Everyone I speak with likes it, especially those with a 5 due to the added features for that unit.

Whether you want to sell it or not makes no difference to me but make your decision on the stock's valuation, not whether you personally like the operating system or some other aspect of the firm's products. The firm is still trading at a cheap valuation and makes an almost obscene amount of money. This could change at any time but I am not selling anything until the high 500's and will carry some of the position at least up to the previous all-time high.

Sometimes it helps to forget the nitty gritty and focus on the only thing that matters (outside of the stock's movement), is AAPL worth more than it was? Every quarter that goes by they add tens of billions of dollars in shareholder value. If the P/E ratio is high, this can crush the stock even as profits increase but AAPL's P/E ratio is low. What would AAPL do in a static market without all the gyrations, volatility, valuation fluctuations, etc.? It would add $7-9+ to the share price after tax every quarter last time I checked. That's +$100 to the stock price in 3-4 years without any growth in revenue or increase in margins.
 
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the fact that you seem to have grown ambivalent to the stock,and don't follow it closely worries me.I agree with Saht ,it is in my long portfolio.they sold 9 million phones in a weekend......selling a good phone that people want downmarket is a great strategy.
 
I personally think they still have a few years of potential growth. iWatch and actual AppleTV are still in the pipeline and can potentially be their next market disrupters. Of course that can go both ways and people might not go gaga over the new technology. It's funny how 'analysts' are disappointed with anything less than iPhone levels of disruption every year.
 
I didn't see this before Ultra, my apologies. i can give you a great view of the market from last November through now :)

Rallies can go on longer than anyone thinks they can, I've seen enough people get burned that I don't try to call tops or bottoms. I do, however, slowly take money off the table as the market wide P/E ratio expands and move toward other asset classes or different areas in the stock market. I picked up several fixed income like positions (preferreds etc.) when the 10 yr hit 3%. I was an economist by training until switching toward an engineering focus more recently; inflation will likely remain low and thus interest rates. I will take off some of my "short 10 yr" position (I am not actually short the 10 yr) when rates get to 2.5 and finally 2.25. I will collect interest and hold them longer term if I am wrong which I am comfortable with.

Earnings have not kept up with the increase in the stock market. This is fact. All other markets are way behind the U.S. stock market, also fact. Either a lot of unusual things are going to occur (all other markets rally to the levels of the U.S. and or earnings suddenly expand greatly) or we are going to a) flat line b) have a significant correction sooner than later. Hence I go long good valuation stocks that pay investors in yield, not capital gains, in environments like this.
 
Thanks guys. Exactly the objective opinions I was looking for.

the fact that you seem to have grown ambivalent to the stock,and don't follow it closely worries me.I agree with Saht ,it is in my long portfolio.they sold 9 million phones in a weekend......selling a good phone that people want downmarket is a great strategy.

I'm not sure if you're worried for me about my growing detached or worried for you and any of your AAPL positions since someone (me) is now detached to their stock. I'm assuming it's the first and not the second! Yeah I've stopped doing homework, subscribing to IBD, and actively investing in equities. It was a fun hobby 5+ years ago but I grew to no longer have the time to do it right due to work commitments and two rental properties (which I enjoy more now than researching investments and took the place of investments as my "extracurricular hobby that occasionally pays and may help me retire early"). So I asked here for some input and got very good input (thanks guys, again).

Don't let your personal experiences cloud your judgement - they have nothing to do with AAPL's revenue or margins. Overall IOS7 has been a success. Mine was buggy at first as well but I quickly sorted it out. Everyone I speak with likes it, especially those with a 5 due to the added features for that unit.

Although I get your big picture message, I very respectfully slightly disagree to a point. AAPL's revenue and ability to maintain good margin at high volumes are based on selling great products that people don't mind paying up for (and/or replacing often). Apple has seemed to hit homeruns from 2005 to around 2012 and as a result, I didn't mind paying up for their products (vs. competing alternatives) - Over 8 years I've had 3 ipods (wore each one out and replaced them successively) and currently have an iphone4, a mac pro w/apple monitor, apple tv, an ipad 1, and I bought ipad 1's as gifts for my mom & sister. But suddenly/lately, Apple's "misses" & obsolescence strategies that I mentioned above have really disappointed me too frequently beyond just feeling like minor nuisances and it feels like a sea of change for me since becoming a super happy Apple product fan in 2005. Three weeks ago I was likely heading to a 5S even though my three year old iphon4 is just fine, because I felt ready for an upgrade. But not now after putting ios7 on my iphone4. I was also heading towards finally getting an apple laptop 1-2 years ago but once I heard my 5 year old mega-powerful dual-core Mac Pro would no longer receive OS updates, that made me rethink and pause. Call me kooky and maybe a minority...Maybe I'm Peter Lynch'ing too much by paying attention too closely to things I'm familiar with, but I'm just getting worried that I may not be the only one who may start to feel unwilling to pay up for products that no longer feel like the homeruns they once were.

As for ios7, the reviews by my coworkers & friends are somewhere around the 50% mark, closer to being 50% frustration 50% it's not that bad vs. being 50% fustration 50% I think it's fantastic. Not trying to bomb on their products, and I'm not abandoning mine by any means. At any rate - I'm going to hold my AAPL and just start paying more attention. I heard about the 9million sales prior to posting and wondered how much of that was just due to the timing being right for folk to upgrade phone hardware to either a mega-attractive new low price or a mega-attractive super new processor, and regardless of ios.

Thanks a ton for the thoughts!
 
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If it matters...valuing an apple share with a bearish slant yields a value of 300-350$....
 
If it matters...valuing an apple share with a bearish slant yields a value of 300-350$....

Depending on what 'bearish' means you could be 100% right. A lot of smart people, even in finance that I work alongside (including top financial advisers in the U.S. that should know better) do not include AAPL's cash position when they do their valuation (not suggesting you are forgetting this Doc, just reminded me of it). It's hard to name a firm as big as AAPL with no debt (outside of the recent offering if you want to get technical) and a massive cash position, even relative to its massive market cap. Here is how I explain it:

How much is a 99 NSX worth? 45k.

How much is the same a 99 NSX worth now with $10k cash in the trunk?

One's consideration of the firm's cash position makes a material difference in how the firm is valued. The reason I first got long AAPL during the financial crisis was extremely simple - they had $50+ in cash per share and it was trading at 75-90$ dollars. That means AAPL the firm (excluding its cash hoard) was being sold for 25-40$ a share. Remarkable!
 
If I was forced to bet on it, I would bet that Apple is out of business in 20 years.

All of their revenue comes from an outdated cellphone that they haven't been able to change or innovate on in several years.
IMO, Apple is the next Yahoo/AOL/Blackberry/Nokia/Palm.
Unless they pull out some magic really quick, I don't think they'll be around too much longer.

IMO, the stock was pushed up by a few things.
1. People who invest in it aren't always the most tech savvy or most up to date on technology(not being mean, people investing probably have more interesting things to care about).
2. Apple did OWN the market for a few years and were able to build iPhones with very very cheap labor and very high markups.
The markups are over now that there's competition and you can't build them any cheaper than Apple already is.
3. They were seen as innovating, but IMO, all of their innovations were simply different sizes of the same product. They made the iPod touch, added an antenna and turned it into a phone, made it bigger and turned it into a tablet.
While all of that is cool, that doesn't demonstrate REAL(GE/Google style) innovation, and there's nowhere to go from here. You can make but so many sizes of it.
4. Apple stock is down, what, 40% in the last 12 months while the market has surged?

As you can see, Apple makes all it's money from selling cellphones and tablets. Both of which the innovation is gone and the completion has arguably surpassed them killing margins.

apple_4q11_results_006-4e9e18f-intro.png



Right now iPhones are 13% of the market and falling.
My guess is they're 5% in 5 years.

http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24257413


I personally think they still have a few years of potential growth. iWatch and actual AppleTV are still in the pipeline and can potentially be their next market disrupters. Of course that can go both ways and people might not go gaga over the new technology. It's funny how 'analysts' are disappointed with anything less than iPhone levels of disruption every year.

I'm skeptical of the iWatch, but if they can pull off with AppleTV what they did with MP3's and the music industry, THAT could be a game changer.
The problem is Netflix and Amazon have a big jump on them.

.
 
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........in the eyes of the retail investor it just got cheaper:wink:
 
it just split this am.
 
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