I have no clue on actualities or real-world basis for my response, but I'd think that Gas prices would only go as high as people are willing to pay if there is enough supply. People still drive SUV's and we still drive the sport mobiles. The Oil guys would rather see you driving a gas mobile vs alternative methods if that means they have to cut profit a bit. And on another note a $600 a month lease for a hydrogen powered sedan? huh?
That would be true if we lived in a bubble. The reality is the U.S. is no longer the decider in world wide consumption and is not the majority responsible for increases in demand of crude. There is 25,000 new drivers of automobiles in China every day. The entire industry is shady and nobody, including Exxon, knows what is in store for us definitively in the future.
The fact of the matter is two of our largest exporters, Russia and Mexico, are going to no longer export period within 5-10 years. Saudi will not increase production to make up for it. Other fields are out there but only profitable at higher costs, the end of 'cheap oil' is more or less already here.
We have enough coal to do whatever we want, at the expense of the environment with current technology. Nuclear technology is another feasible solution but the hippies would rather ride bicycles to work, not that I necessarily blame them for that one.
All that being said, there is zero reason for crude to be up $5 today or it to be up $25 in one month of one year. THAT particular activity is NOT proportionally to the supply and demand issues I previously noted.