***STICKY*** Gen1 NSX Current Market Analysis

[RacerXwing]

I have since made an update to the automatic value effect that results in more accurate valuation and a more intuitive valuation experience. Rather than one blanket effect applied consistently across 91-05, with confusion over how to apply it, we now have 3 separate automatic value effects below with instruction on how to apply them. These correspond to the 3 types of automatic NSXs:

<google-sheets-html-origin style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: medium;">

NA1 C Auto	[FONT=&quot]Add to NA1C value (for valuing a 91-96 C Auto)[/FONT]
NA1 T Auto	[FONT=&quot]Add to NA1T value (for valuing a 95-01 T Auto)[/FONT]
NA1 T (FL) Auto	[FONT=&quot]Add to NA1T value (for valuing a 02+ T Auto)[/FONT]

<tbody>
</tbody>

</google-sheets-html-origin>
I am always looking for ways to improve the presentation and intuitiveness, no matter how minor they may seem.

 

[ShawnOT]

@RacerXwing This may have been asked and addressed already, but how does the market analysis document account for listings where the reserve is not met? A specific recent example is the 22k mile 2004 Silverstone that did not meet reserve at ~$126K on BAT. That same car sold for $150K back in Sept 2021, which is in your data set. However, it's non-sale on its most recent listing on BAT doesn't appear to be in the data. Obviously, some cars don't meet the reserve because the reserve may be set unrealistically high, but in this case the car didn't even reach a bid within $20k of it's sale price less than a year ago, and came up roughly $30k short of what the document predicted despite some significant maintenance that was addressed during that time. There are a lot of factors at play if/when a car doesn't sell, some of which may have nothing to do with the car itself or the market (such as that particular 2004 NSX auction ended on a Sunday afternoon) but nonetheless those data points seem pretty meaningful in the overall picture of the current market. Not sure if you're already accounting for that kind of data or if you're purposely not including it, but in any case I'd love to hear your thoughts. As always thanks for the work you continue to put into that document!

 

[Shaun Ray]

@RacerXwing This may have been asked and addressed already, but how does the market analysis document account for listings where the reserve is not met? A specific recent example is the 22k mile 2004 Silverstone that did not meet reserve at ~$126K on BAT. That same car sold for $150K back in Sept 2021, which is in your data set. However, it's non-sale on its most recent listing on BAT doesn't appear to be in the data. Obviously, some cars don't meet the reserve because the reserve may be set unrealistically high, but in this case the car didn't even reach a bid within $20k of it's sale price less than a year ago, and came up roughly $30k short of what the document predicted despite some significant maintenance that was addressed during that time. There are a lot of factors at play if/when a car doesn't sell, some of which may have nothing to do with the car itself or the market (such as that particular 2004 NSX auction ended on a Sunday afternoon) but nonetheless those data points seem pretty meaningful in the overall picture of the current market. Not sure if you're already accounting for that kind of data or if you're purposely not including it, but in any case I'd love to hear your thoughts. As always thanks for the work you continue to put into that document!

I was surprised by the result of the recent BaT auction you noted, Shawn. I am wondering if the NSX market is softening a little bit. However, the price of these elite versions that expect top dollar on BaT really need to be pristine. The 2004 Silver NSX had some minor flaws that would have put me off of spending what the reserve probably was at. There is a 2005 Red/Black NSX on BaT right now that also has some very minor flaws that would put me off for a stellar bid price.

I think when the market analysis is focusing on these rare examples (2004/2005) versions, the value can really be a wild card depending on how perfect the car is. Clean carfax is fine, but if a panel has been repainted to address a "scratch", that's going to put some buyers off. As we see more BaT auctions come and go in the next 3-6 months, I suspect we'll have a better grasp on whether the market has softened or improved even above the prices these wonderful cars have been fetching the last year or two.

 

[Bram]

Keep in mind that the economy is slowing down, not only in NA, but around the World and with the Markets being way off this affects people spending habits....so people are not spending

Bram

 

[Superhatch]

There is a 91 from Canada currently on BAT and I'm wondering what it will go for. It's a very clean example with 57K miles on it (91,000km as it has a metric cluster) and it's currently sitting at $45k with 4 days left. I'm not sure if the fact that it was originally a Canadian car affects the US resale (its currently titled in NJ), but I expected more than $45k in the initial bids.

 

[RacerXwing]

@RacerXwing This may have been asked and addressed already, but how does the market analysis document account for listings where the reserve is not met? A specific recent example is the 22k mile 2004 Silverstone that did not meet reserve at ~$126K on BAT. That same car sold for $150K back in Sept 2021, which is in your data set. However, it's non-sale on its most recent listing on BAT doesn't appear to be in the data. Obviously, some cars don't meet the reserve because the reserve may be set unrealistically high, but in this case the car didn't even reach a bid within $20k of it's sale price less than a year ago, and came up roughly $30k short of what the document predicted despite some significant maintenance that was addressed during that time. There are a lot of factors at play if/when a car doesn't sell, some of which may have nothing to do with the car itself or the market (such as that particular 2004 NSX auction ended on a Sunday afternoon) but nonetheless those data points seem pretty meaningful in the overall picture of the current market. Not sure if you're already accounting for that kind of data or if you're purposely not including it, but in any case I'd love to hear your thoughts. As always thanks for the work you continue to put into that document!

This is a fantastic question, thanks for bringing it up. The answer is that I have been tracking failures to meet reserve since the beginning but have deliberately avoided any insights or further use beyond comparing the venues' sale rates in 'Consider Sale Venue Effects and Information' due to the wide variety of complexity and nuance of reasons for not meeting reserve. This comment, however, kindled my desire to revisit, and should you click on the Valuation Document now, you will see the last 5 Failures to Meet Reserve provided in the new section 2b. This will provide value irrespective of any more nuanced and complicated conclusions; the data is present, so it can be shown.

The wheels in my mind continue to spin with respect to ways to use failures to meet reserve in conjunction with market strength. Failures to meet reserve happen frequently on eBay, where the same NSX can fail to meet reserve as frequently as once a week, versus the example on BaT which could be a bellwether (if failures of similar examples to meet reserve are sustained), or just a fluke with the specific vehicle or its sale. That sentence alone shows the volatile nature of this data, from useless, to a predictor, to a fluke, so I will consider further. I appreciate the food for thought as always, thank you for the kind words!

 

[I’m_All_In]

I’m the owner of the 2004 Silver that was a no-sale on BaT last week. A little surprised at the last bid amount and I suspect the main culprit was the Sunday timing. I wouldn’t think that the overall economic “situation” would affect these types of transaction, but who knows. My reserve was essentially what I have in it, so you can do the math. I personally thought it would go for quite a bit more, especially considering it’s current condition. Yes, the rear bumper cover has been repainted, but only because the BS said that was the only way to make it perfect.

It’s still technically a one-owner car as I haven’t titled it. Not saying that to try to slip anything by anybody, just as an FYI. I was really surprised the red one got to $140, with (4) owners, some breaks in known history, etc. Anyway, it is what it is.

Not going to repeat my story already posted on BaT, but my interest has changed. I may list it here, who knows.

 

[I’m_All_In]

Agree

I was surprised by the result of the recent BaT auction you noted, Shawn. I am wondering if the NSX market is softening a little bit. However, the price of these elite versions that expect top dollar on BaT really need to be pristine. The 2004 Silver NSX had some minor flaws that would have put me off of spending what the reserve probably was at. There is a 2005 Red/Black NSX on BaT right now that also has some very minor flaws that would put me off for a stellar bid price.

I think when the market analysis is focusing on these rare examples (2004/2005) versions, the value can really be a wild card depending on how perfect the car is. Clean carfax is fine, but if a panel has been repainted to address a "scratch", that's going to put some buyers off. As we see more BaT auctions come and go in the next 3-6 months, I suspect we'll have a better grasp on whether the market has softened or improved even above the prices these wonderful cars have been fetching the last year or two.

I completely agree with everything you say here, except maybe the “panel” part. I’m an avid car guy and I personally wouldn’t ding (no pun intended) a car the same if a bumper cover was repainted versus say a panel, such as fender, hood, rear quarter. The scratch (from a Lowe’s lumber cart) was in an awkward position and Classic Motoring was just thought it would be better to paint the whole cover. BTW, for a car designed to be as light as possible, the rear bumper assembly is one hell of a contraption!

Only other known issues are couple of paint chips on the hood. My detailer felt confident he could slowly touch them up, wet sand area, repeat to build paint and then polish to make them disappear. I chose to not take the risk, just in case something went awry and now I got a mess.

Just my opinion, perhaps a bit biased, and yours may differ and I’m OK with that.

BTW, your car, with supercharger, was my inspiration when I bought mine.

 

[centerpunch]

I’m the owner of the 2004 Silver that was a no-sale on BaT last week...

Just fyi, you need to post a few more times (maybe 5 total?) before folks can PM you.

You probably should do that so people could ask you about the car if they might be interested.

 

[I’m_All_In]

Got It

Thanks for the heads up!

 

[centerpunch]

Thanks for the heads up!

No problem. But I think maybe it's actually 10 posts.

Anyway, once you can PM, I'll message you- I have a similar car and was considering putting it on BaT.

 

[I’m_All_In]

Got it, thanks.

 

[Shaun Ray]

Got it, thanks.

For what it's worth, I sold my 2004 earlier this year for about asking price and used NSX Prime For Sale Market Place as my only resource to sell. You would have to be patient, but it allows the buyer (and seller) to skip the associated fees that can occur in BaT. (and no stress, because no auction). Prime is a great place to buy and sell NSX's, IMO.

Hope it all works out for you!

 

[I’m_All_In]

Thanks Shaun. I put about (50) miles on it this weekend and loved every one of them. Really had a blast. I’m torn as to whether or not to sell it. On one side, it provides the analog driving experience I was looking for. On the other, I feel it’s too nice of a car to rack up the miles on. I think a higher-mileage, less expensive car would give me the same driving pleasure without the financial worry of potentially damaging what I think is a collector level car. Decisions, decisions - stay tuned!

 

[Shaun Ray]

Thanks Shaun. I put about (50) miles on it this weekend and loved every one of them. Really had a blast. I’m torn as to whether or not to sell it. On one side, it provides the analog driving experience I was looking for. On the other, I feel it’s too nice of a car to rack up the miles on. I think a higher-mileage, less expensive car would give me the same driving pleasure without the financial worry of potentially damaging what I think is a collector level car. Decisions, decisions - stay tuned!

I was in exactly the same boat. Felt anxious about driving such a "collectible" when a higher mileage (and even muddied title) could provide the same driving experience without the worry. Not all people are the same, but sounds like you have the same concerns. We both are probably just over-thinkers. But I ended up selling. Maybe down the road, if the right "higher mileage" version comes up, I'll be back in. No other sports car appeals to me as much as the NSX.

 

[DRIFTER]

I appreciate people who don’t drive there fun cars. It allows me to find good examples. But I don’t get it letting them sit isn’t any better for them and what’s the point? Anything you make on the car is going to be eaten up by inflation. I get not driving them in the winter taking care of them preventative maintenance not beating it. But the car was designed to be enjoyed. Why would you be afraid to enjoy it. You do you but I certainly don’t get it.

 

[Shaun Ray]

I appreciate people who don’t drive there fun cars. It allows me to find good examples. But I don’t get it letting them sit isn’t any better for them and what’s the point? Anything you make on the car is going to be eaten up by inflation. I get not driving them in the winter taking care of them preventative maintenance not beating it. But the car was designed to be enjoyed. Why would you be afraid to enjoy it. You do you but I certainly don’t get it.

I've said it before, but letting a car sit instead of putting about 1,000 - 1,500 miles per year on it just to "keep things moving" has been my perspective. I just don't understand the value of why "collectors" desire and pay premium dollars for cars that have less that 10,000 miles on the clock (for a car that is 15 - 30 years old). And there's definitely a fun factor for putting the 1,000 - 1,500 miles on an NSX each year. It does however get into the way of considering a road trip (like a cross country trip to NSXPO).

To each his own. I personally respect and admire the NSX owners that drive the crap out of their cars. They are living the best life!

 

[NSXnZ]

If the NSX was my only car and I lived in say Texas, Arizona or California, I wouldn’t think twice about driving it everyday. As it stands, my NSX is a 3rd car and I do drive it every weekend. However, all of 10 months of ownership, I put on about 1300 miles including a road trip from Tennessee to PA which was 800 miles by itself. Now it has close to 22k miles. I did buy the last gen Audi RS5 as a daily recently to capture some of the fun I have with the NSX in all weather conditions, at least the 8000rpm redline part anyhow.

 

[Shaun Ray]

If the NSX was my only car and I lived in say Texas, Arizona or California, I wouldn’t think twice about driving it everyday. As it stands, my NSX is a 3rd car and I do drive it every weekend. However, all of 10 months of ownership, I put on about 1300 miles including a road trip from Tennessee to PA which was 800 miles by itself. Now it has close to 22k miles. I did buy the last gen Audi RS5 as a daily recently to capture some of the fun I have with the NSX in all weather conditions, at least the 8000rpm redline part anyhow.

I hear you! I live in Kansas and typically wait for the perfect day to drive an NSX. Top off preferred! It is usually too windy, too hot, too cold, too wet, etc. But on those perfect days, it's just the best.

As you can tell, I'm not on the Kansas Tourism Council. Still, it's a great place to live. Just not the perfect place to own an exotic. I envy the southern coastal and seasonally mild regions of the country, in that regard.

 

[RPM217]

Add the value, of the smiles per mile that I get when I drive the NSX, and the price that i could get, for my 2002 NSX, with over 87,000 miles, is still a great investment!!!! The ROI isn't just cost, and current value...............

 

[EuroBoutique]

A lot of good points, we enjoy reading posts here as we have many long time NSX owners and quite a few new faces that show up at our shop on a weekly basis.

We are long time NSX owner's (going on 20 years now) and in the past 5 years we have put less than 500 miles on her. Simply no time since we are busy working or developing more parts for NSX owners! You can have just as much enjoyment not driving the car as you do driving, our 2 cents....

Plus way less risk since anytime you drive the car put risk damaging it, so there's that issue too.


enjoy the ownership!

 

[RacerXwing]

State of the Market 2022​

It is now that time of the year to reflect on the NSX market of the departing 2022. Coming off the hot and supply-constrained market in 2021, a significantly increased supply of NSXs were offered for sale to meet the demand. As the temperatures cool following the winter solstice, so too does the market trend cooler but still ending up above 2021.

IN GENERAL:​

A total of 534 NSXs were offered for sale, among the 338 stock and clean-title examples:

• 85 NSX sale prices recorded (3% decrease). BaT was the most prolific sale venue.
• 56 NSXs did not meet reserve (155% increase)
• 60% of NSXs sold (25% decrease)
• 93 NSXs listed by dealers (24% increase)
• 104 NSXs listed by private sellers (38% increase)
• The average of all NSX sale prices increased from $88,291 to $96,219.
• The average of all NSX list prices increased from $87,974 to $101,240, the first time the $100k barrier has been crossed.

In general a bimodal market was observed:

• the sale strength of each type of NSX increased throughout 2022, then began to decrease starting in roughly October. In other words, the market got "hotter" throughout the first part of year than "cooler" in the last quarter. In 2021, nearly every NSX type set a record sale price; fewer record sale prices were set in 2022.
• a large increase in the quantity of NSXs offered for sale was observed

NA1 COUPE MANUAL:​

• 2022 values increased 8% on average across the mileage range.
• 2022 listing prices increased 10% on average across the mileage range.

NA1 TARGA MANUAL:​

• 2022 values increased 10% on average across the mileage range.
• 2022 listing prices increased 12% on average across the mileage range.

NA2 TARGA (POP-UPS) MANUAL:​

• 2022 values increased 2% on average across the mileage range (limited data).
• 2022 listing prices increased 14% on average across the mileage range.
• A notable sale at $205,700 occurred in January 2022, the highest recorded NA2 Targa (popups) manual sale price to date.

NA2 TARGA (FACELIFT) MANUAL:​

• 2022 values increased 8% on average across the mileage range (limited data).
• 2022 listing prices increased 18% on average across the mileage range.

NA2 COUPE (POP-UPS) MANUAL:​

• We got one! 1 NA2 Coupe sold this year, selling at $200,000 with 17,488 miles in April, a new record highest sale price and lowest mileage sale.

ZANARDI​

• 2 Zanardis sold this year, selling at $158,000 and 240,800 in January and August, respectively.

AS ALWAYS, PLEASE REFER TO THE NSX VALUATION DOCUMENT TO SEE THE LIVE-UPDATED INSIGHTS:​

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRlMWrnUJz9cwfQRByIksV6s-9dCheISwbMUtPkDGngiPanuhIfiHDIcsmwfqBxOUZJb_-WUwbcHb7L/pubhtml

This year kept us on the edges of our seats with a continuation of 2021 trends, a large rise in supply, followed by a cooling; with all values ending up ahead of 2021 overall. I'll be curious to monitor the cooling trend as 2023 begins and will continue entering in each sale as it comes.

Thank you to the community for your continued support, and happy new year.

 

[Ex36]

Thanks so much for making this spreadsheet. It helped me immensely when I bought MT000481 out of MN in the Fall.

 

[The Kid]

Absolutely incredible! Thanks for doing this.

Just curious, where was the sale for the NA2 coupe? I can't find it.

 

[TomCat]

Add the value, of the smiles per mile that I get when I drive the NSX, and the price that i could get, for my 2002 NSX, with over 87,000 miles, is still a great investment!!!! The ROI isn't just cost, and current value...............

That sounds like sound financial planning!