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Ok ok, horrible use of phrase on my part. He wants to overturn DOMA..despite first being for it. I believe in the "traditional definition of marriage.." though I know it's a matter of time since it will go away anyway..

It's perfectly OK to believe in the "traditional definition of marriage" -- the problem arises when the State wants to legislate these beliefs.

I think the question of gay marriage is not so much "Should gays be allowed to marry?", but rather "What business is it of the State is in the first place who one chooses to share their life with?". There are certain State activities that require a "civil union" -- hospital visitation, intestate inheritance, and so on. These are moreso contractual obligations rather than matters of "love". We already have well-defined rules as to who can enter into a contract, and neither the gender nor even the number of participants is relevant there. I see no reason why it should be different for "marriage" -- although I prefer the term "civil union" for State couplings, and reserve the term "marriage" for one's own private beliefs.
 
Not sure I understand what Pro-Family is either,
It's often a thinly-veiled way of saying anti-gay. It is a mainstream position in the GOP to think that homosexuality is somehow anti-family. In case you think I'm exaggerating: "We believe that the practice of homosexuality tears at the fabric of society, contributes to the breakdown of the family unit, and leads to the spread of dangerous, communicable diseases." (from the Texas GOP 2008 platform; emphasis mine.)
 
The thing to keep in mind about Libertarians is they are very states-rights oriented. The Libertarian mantra is if a power is not explicitly given to the Federal Government in the Consitution, it is reserved for the states. To them, the primary job of the fed is 1) National defense, 2) Common currency, 3) Regulate interstate commerce. Pretty much everything else is the job of each state.

I agree with that sentiment, but it's going to be harder and harder to achieve as time passes. Certainly it's a lot easier to imagine 50 years ago than today. I think the Libertarian Party needs to shake itself up a bit and adapt to the reality of the day.
 
So when you boil it all down to the brass tacks it's looks like this.

The United States is a pivotal point in its existence, it's going to choose between two paths.

(A) McCain: Continue with a half-hearted attempt at a free market system.

(B) Obama: Adopt the same Socialist or Communist system the rest of the industrialized world employs and then move toward more "Globalization" and eventually adopt a "One World Government" and then it will rule with an iron fist over the entire planet for a yet to be determined amount of time and then all the things from the Bibles book of Revelations will come to pass and there will be plagues and locusts and blood and death raining from the sky and eventually the world will end as we know it..

Well it's really nice outside I think I'm gonna go get a sandwich...Good luck everyone!
 
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So when you boil it all down to the brass tacks it's looks like this.

The United States is a pivotal point in its existence, it's going to choose between two paths.

(A) McCain: Continue with a half-hearted attempt at a free market system.

(B) Obama: Adopt the same Socialist or Communist system the rest of the industrialized world employs and then move toward more "Globalization" and eventually adopt a "One World Government" and then it will rule with an iron fist over the entire planet for a yet to be determined amount of time and then all the things from the Bibles book of Revelations will come to pass and there will be plagues and locusts and blood and death raining from the sky and eventually the world will end as we know it..

Well it's really nice outside I think I'm gonna go get a sandwich...Good luck everyone!

Check it out. Rumor is that the market itself is doing a sell-off expecting an Obama presidency.

IBD: Market Dive Due to Impending 'First Socialist President,' Taxes, Protectionism
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-bl...ng-first-socialist-president-taxes-protection

Market Selloff Due to Presidential Polls ?http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/market-selloff.html

Blog: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2106525/posts
 
It's perfectly OK to believe in the "traditional definition of marriage" -- the problem arises when the State wants to legislate these beliefs.

I think the question of gay marriage is not so much "Should gays be allowed to marry?", but rather "What business is it of the State is in the first place who one chooses to share their life with?". There are certain State activities that require a "civil union" -- hospital visitation, intestate inheritance, and so on. These are moreso contractual obligations rather than matters of "love". We already have well-defined rules as to who can enter into a contract, and neither the gender nor even the number of participants is relevant there. I see no reason why it should be different for "marriage" -- although I prefer the term "civil union" for State couplings, and reserve the term "marriage" for one's own private beliefs.

I'll probably get shot for this.. but oh well. I'm with you on the Civil Unions and I think that would diffuse the entire situations.

But most gay activists are against that - even when rights are exactly the same. Why is that?

Instead, they want an ideological redefinition of what has been sacred long before the history of this country. Sorry to say.. but beneath that, it's opur continual cultural worship not only of sex, but legislating it and pushing it down everyone's throats.

For ex: Look up what the "Human Rights [BS] Commission" has done not just the US but in Canada and Europe where we are following - there are some places where they want to teach pre-schoolers the 'pleasure' of homosexuality and being open to 'experiment.' WTF? To preschoolers? No, I'm not kidding and in 10 years, we'll be right there.

It's NOT about 'gay rights' - it's about indoctrination and prosecuting anyone that might speak out that might object to the agenda.
 
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I'll probably get shot for this.. but oh well. I'm with you on the Civil Unions and I think that would diffuse the entire situations.

But most gay activists are against that - even when rights are exactly the same. Why is that?

I think you are incorrect in this regard. I don't know any "gay activists", but I do have a lot of homosexual friends, and all they want are the same rights as heterosexuals -- nothing special, nothing more.

I don't think that's an unreasonable thing to ask for.
 
I'll probably get shot for this.. but oh well. I'm with you on the Civil Unions and I think that would diffuse the entire situations.

But most gay activists are against that - even when rights are exactly the same. Why is that?

Instead, they want an ideological redefinition of what has been sacred long before the history of this country.
I'm happy to call my relationship a civil union as far as the state is concerned. Are you? Let's have the state get out of the business of recognizing marriage. The state could recognize civil unions for everyone.

You said sacred; sacred things are not the state's business.

For ex: Look up what the "Human Rights [BS] Commission" has done not just the US but in Canada and Europe where we are following - there are some places where they want to teach pre-schoolers the 'pleasure' of homosexuality and being open to 'experiment.'
Is this just something you heard, or did you verify it? I'm not going to look it up; the burden is on you to substantiate a claim like that.
 
Check it out. Rumor is that the market itself is doing a sell-off expecting an Obama presidency.

IBD: Market Dive Due to Impending 'First Socialist President,' Taxes, Protectionism
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-bl...ng-first-socialist-president-taxes-protection

Market Selloff Due to Presidential Polls ?http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/market-selloff.html

Blog: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2106525/posts

Dude, give it a rest. The market closed up today 170pts.

You gotta stop reading the right winged websites.
 
Check it out. Rumor is that the market itself is doing a sell-off expecting an Obama presidency.

IBD: Market Dive Due to Impending 'First Socialist President,' Taxes, Protectionism
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-bl...ng-first-socialist-president-taxes-protection

Market Selloff Due to Presidential Polls ?http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/market-selloff.html

Blog: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2106525/posts

I just got a robocall telling me how Barack Obama was the cause for the Great Depression, measles and snap ring failures on the NSX. And I almost believed the part about the NSX...

Officially- this thread is crap (tm)
 
It comes down to who dances the best!

<object width="464" height="392"><param name="movie" value="http://embed.break.com/NTkyNjQ4"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://embed.break.com/NTkyNjQ4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowScriptAccess=always width="464" height="392"></embed></object><br><font size=1><a href="http://www.break.com/index/unbelievable-mccain-vs-obama-dance-off.html">Unbelievable McCain Vs. Obama Dance-Off</a> - Watch more <a href="http://www.break.com/">free videos</a></font>
 
I just got a robocall telling me how Barack Obama was the cause for the Great Depression, measles and snap ring failures on the NSX. And I almost believed the part about the NSX...

Officially- this thread is crap (tm)

You seem to be a savvy stock person so I value your input. What do you believe are the most signifcant factors to the crash?

Have you done your own investigation and come to a personal educated conclusion?

Would appreciate your thoughts.
 
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You seem to be a savvy stock person so I value your input. What do you believe are the most signifcant factors to the crash?

Have you done your own investigation and come to a personal educated conclusion?

Would appreciate your thoughts.

In a nutshell,

Credit Default Swaps:

62 Trillion in gambles on 5 trillion in corporate debt. Private party transactions with absolutely no transparency. As an example, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy debt payout was $.087 per $1.00 leaving about $400 billion in counter party (CDS) obligations.

Collaterilized Debt Obligations

AAA rated debt vehicles with underlying subprime assets. And guess what, these have CDS's too. Turns out they're really not AAA. Subprime mortgages aren't the gun, they're the trigger.

Ask yourself why we have a credit crunch? Because banks won't lend to other banks. There are two reasons for this. First, they are hoarding cash in fear that they'll need to use it to pay off CDS protection they've offered on shaky underlying assets. Second, if they lend money to other banks who have made even more foolish CDS's-- say Lehman Brothers-- their hard earned cash is gone when the debting bank goes under leaving them in the same postion, unable to meet their obligations.

And why is the US Treasury so afraid of this scenario? Well, it turns out that the 62 trillion of CDS's are so horribly interconnected between banks on a global scale, that if only a few banks fail the resulting cascade of failures would utimately be systemic. And since CDS's are private 2 party transactions no one knows what the other guys are holding nor if the CDS they themselves have are valuable or worthless.

Now, put this all in perspective of the bailout ideas/actions that have taken place.

- AIG bailout, essentially the largest insurance company in the world. CDS is "insurance" so these guys are one of the lynch pins.

- Stock infusion, recapitalization of the banks through purchase of assets. Give them enough money so that they can be assured that other banks won't default on intrabank lending. Default for reasons explained above.

- Unlimited FDIC insurance on intrabank lending, same as above.

- Purchase mortgage and distressed assets, removes and revalues the "trigger" for CDS's so that the banks no longer have fear of paying out 62 trillion on 5 trillion in assets (in the general sense). It is an indirect and difficult approach to implement due to logistics and valuation. Notice how the Treasury hasn't used this strategy yet even though it was the foundation of the original Paulsen plan?

- Offer mortgage assistance, again an indirect approach to preventing the devaluation of CDO's causing CDS triggers. Also a first strike against deflation.

- Creation of a CDS market and regulation, this could have prevented the scenario we're now in, but that's hindsight. It will hopefully create transparency allowing banks to be more assured of their own as well as other banks' solvency.

If you look at Greenspan's recent testimony, it's the only thing he has admitted to being wrong about.
 
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Here's the Washington Post article with embedded links.

Text:

McCain for President

By Charles Krauthammer
Friday, October 24, 2008; A19

Contrarian that I am, I'm voting for John McCain. I'm not talking about bucking the polls or the media consensus that it's over before it's over. I'm talking about bucking the rush of wet-fingered conservatives leaping to Barack Obama before they're left out in the cold without a single state dinner for the next four years.

I stand athwart the rush of conservative ship-jumpers of every stripe -- neo (Ken Adelman), moderate (Colin Powell), genetic/ironic (Christopher Buckley) and socialist/atheist (Christopher Hitchens) -- yelling "Stop!" I shall have no part of this motley crew. I will go down with the McCain ship. I'd rather lose an election than lose my bearings.

First, I'll have no truck with the phony case ginned up to rationalize voting for the most liberal and inexperienced presidential nominee in living memory. The "erratic" temperament issue, for example. As if McCain's risky and unsuccessful but in no way irrational attempt to tactically maneuver his way through the economic tsunami that came crashing down a month ago renders unfit for office a man who demonstrated the most admirable equanimity and courage in the face of unimaginable pressures as a prisoner of war, and who later steadily navigated innumerable challenges and setbacks, not the least of which was the collapse of his campaign just a year ago.

McCain the "erratic" is a cheap Obama talking point. The 40-year record testifies to McCain the stalwart.

Nor will I countenance the "dirty campaign" pretense. The double standard here is stunning. Obama ran a scurrilous Spanish-language ad falsely associating McCain with anti-Hispanic slurs. Another ad falsely claimed that McCain supports "cutting Social Security benefits in half." And for months Democrats insisted that McCain sought 100 years of war in Iraq.

McCain's critics are offended that he raised the issue of William Ayers. What's astonishing is that Obama was himself not offended by William Ayers.

Moreover, the most remarkable of all tactical choices of this election season is the attack that never was. Out of extreme (and unnecessary) conscientiousness, McCain refused to raise the legitimate issue of Obama's most egregious association -- with the race-baiting Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Dirty campaigning, indeed.

The case for McCain is straightforward. The financial crisis has made us forget, or just blindly deny, how dangerous the world out there is. We have a generations-long struggle with Islamic jihadism. An apocalyptic soon-to-be-nuclear Iran. A nuclear-armed Pakistan in danger of fragmentation. A rising Russia pushing the limits of revanchism. Plus the sure-to-come Falklands-like surprise popping out of nowhere.

Who do you want answering that phone at 3 a.m.? A man who's been cramming on these issues for the past year, who's never had to make an executive decision affecting so much as a city, let alone the world? A foreign policy novice instinctively inclined to the flabbiest, most vaporous multilateralism (e.g., the Berlin Wall came down because of "a world that stands as one"), and who refers to the most deliberate act of war since Pearl Harbor as "the tragedy of 9/11," a term more appropriate for a bus accident?

Or do you want a man who is the most prepared, most knowledgeable, most serious foreign policy thinker in the United States Senate? A man who not only has the best instincts but has the honor and the courage to, yes, put country first, as when he carried the lonely fight for the surge that turned Iraq from catastrophic defeat into achievable strategic victory?

There's just no comparison. Obama's own running mate warned this week that Obama's youth and inexperience will invite a crisis -- indeed a crisis "generated" precisely to test him. Can you be serious about national security and vote on Nov. 4 to invite that test?

And how will he pass it? Well, how has he fared on the only two significant foreign policy tests he has faced since he's been in the Senate? The first was the surge. Obama failed spectacularly. He not only opposed it. He tried to denigrate it, stop it and, finally, deny its success.

The second test was Georgia, to which Obama responded instinctively with evenhanded moral equivalence, urging restraint on both sides. McCain did not have to consult his advisers to instantly identify the aggressor.

Today's economic crisis, like every other in our history, will in time pass. But the barbarians will still be at the gates. Whom do you want on the parapet? I'm for the guy who can tell the lion from the lamb.
 
In a nutshell,

Credit Default Swaps:

62 Trillion in gambles on 5 trillion in corporate debt. Private party transactions with absolutely no transparency. As an example, Lehman Brothers bankruptcy debt payout was $.087 per $1.00 leaving about $400 billion in counter party (CDS) obligations.

Collaterilized Debt Obligations

AAA rated debt vehicles with underlying subprime assets. And guess what, these have CDS's too. Turns out they're really not AAA. Subprime mortgages aren't the gun, they're the trigger.

Ask yourself why we have a credit crunch? Because banks won't lend to other banks. There are two reasons for this. First, they are hoarding cash in fear that they'll need to use it to pay off CDS protection they've offered on shaky underlying assets. Second, if they lend money to other banks who have made even more foolish CDS's-- say Lehman Brothers-- their hard earned cash is gone when the debting bank goes under leaving them in the same postion, unable to meet their obligations.

And why is the US Treasury so afraid of this scenario? Well, it turns out that the 62 trillion of CDS's are so horribly interconnected between banks on a global scale, that if only a few banks fail the resulting cascade of failures would utimately be systemic. And since CDS's are private 2 party transactions no one knows what the other guys are holding nor if the CDS they themselves have are valuable or worthless.

Now, put this all in perspective of the bailout ideas/actions that have taken place.

- AIG bailout, essentially the largest insurance company in the world. CDS is "insurance" so these guys are one of the lynch pins.

- Stock infusion, recapitalization of the banks through purchase of assets. Give them enough money so that they can be assured that other banks won't default on intrabank lending. Default for reasons explained above.

- Unlimited FDIC insurance on intrabank lending, same as above.

- Purchase mortgage and distressed assets, removes and revalues the "trigger" for CDS's so that the banks no longer have fear of paying out 62 trillion on 5 trillion in assets (in the general sense). It is an indirect and difficult approach to implement due to logistics and valuation. Notice how the Treasury hasn't used this strategy yet even though it was the foundation of the original Paulsen plan?

- Offer mortgage assistance, again an indirect approach to preventing the devaluation of CDO's causing CDS triggers. Also a first strike against deflation.

- Creation of a CDS market and regulation, this could have prevented the scenario we're now in, but that's hindsight. It will hopefully create transparency allowing banks to be more assured of their own as well as other banks' solvency.

If you look at Greenspan's recent testimony, it's the only thing he has admitted to being wrong about.

What caused this crisis was the extreme deviation from the average historical mean on everything related to housing. The direct causes, Fannie and Freddi's reckless absorption of anything and everything, and the fallout and ramifications, the credit crisis and failure and creation to a certain extent of CDS's, all play a role. But CDS's alone are like saying lung cancer killed a guy who has been smoking three packs a day for 25 years without mentioning his smoking habits.
 
What caused this crisis was the extreme deviation from the average historical mean on everything related to housing. The direct causes, Fannie and Freddi's reckless absorption of anything and everything, and the fallout and ramifications, the credit crisis and failure and creation to a certain extent of CDS's, all play a role. But CDS's alone are like saying lung cancer killed a guy who has been smoking three packs a day for 25 years without mentioning his smoking habits.

An interesting analogy, but in the end the crisis is the cancer not the smoking.

I understand what you are saying. However, once you confine your argument to domestic housing-- neither Freddie nor Fannie buy foreign mortgages (at least as far as I know)-- you'll need to come up with a mode for global ramifications of their failure. Ultimately their bonds were worth 99 cents on the dollar at auction so you can't argue for devalution of their assets. It also fails to explain any reason for a bank to hoard money. CDS counter-party risk covers both of these intrinsicallly given the global nature of the swaps and the chain of obligations once a credit event occurs. Equities don't explain it, commodities don't explain it, a global recession doesn't really explain it either.

I think you're examining the dice when you should be looking at the crap game. I look forward to your response.
 
An interesting analogy, but in the end the crisis is the cancer not the smoking.

I understand what you are saying. However, once you confine your argument to domestic housing-- neither Freddie nor Fannie buy foreign mortgages (at least as far as I know)-- you'll need to come up with a mode for global ramifications of their failure. Ultimately their bonds were worth 99 cents on the dollar at auction so you can't argue for devalution of their assets. It also fails to explain any reason for a bank to hoard money. CDS counter-party risk covers both of these intrinsicallly given the global nature of the swaps and the chain of obligations once a credit event occurs. Equities don't explain it, commodities don't explain it, a global recession doesn't really explain it either.

I think you're examining the dice when you should be looking at the crap game. I look forward to your response.

I've been watching the whole casino since about 2004. The causation for the global ramifications are many. In the simplest and grandest sense, it's the extreme miss-pricing of risk globally. The UK for instance has a very similar situation to us-half a decade+ of artificially stimulated housing that's now crashing down. Your CDS example is similar in nature to what I call the "one sided trade" situation that existed up until recently. The housing deviation from the historical mean would just cause a forceful devaluation in homes in of itself. They key was that everyone was betting on the same-and wrong-direction.

You are right that it's a complex story and not constrained to the domestic markets. But those extremely undervalued assets/aka tranches were spread throughout the world-the Europeans bought them as much as we did domestically. That is part of their problem. The credit markets shut down (won't lend money as you said) because the risk of lending money was not worth the reward. It was unknown, and still is unknown to a significant degree, who has what and to what extent. These assets are often leveraged (another example of the one sided trade atmosphere) and therefore a single miss calculation can bring a firm to its knees. The government had to put some sort of floor in so they could lend money without the normal transparency until things are "figured out".

The CDS fallout is a continuance of the miss pricing of risk going back to the original packaging of these bonds/mortgages. The entire premise of buying "insurance" on assets that are supposed to be priced accordingly in the first place was laughable. In relation to your fannie/freddie .99 on the dollar, this is not the entire story. Although these firms were significantly responsible for the origination of no job/no downpayment/ARM loans, the instruments were spread globally. The ensuing credit crunch caused by the lack of transparency and related constant bank failures shut down business all over the world. Developing markets do not have access to the tools that the G-8/10 countries have-this is a reason why these markets are being obliterated recently besides a global (and natural) slowdown.

When short term paper is at risk, everything shuts down. Any and every firm that needs short term debt for solvency has become questionable. CDS's have played a role but their existence is derived from the core problem and is not necessarily the cause of it IMO. The potential ramifications for a complete collapse of the CDS market would make our current situation look like a fairy tale. I hope that particular end result has been avoided, but hope is not a strategy. I wrote this in a few minutes and typing 100wpm doesn't always produce a post of high quality but I'll give it more thought tomorrow. Time for a little wine and I'm going to sleep!
 
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I can type 50, but I can only think 5.

I appreciate your insights. Honestly, you've given this a bit more thought than I have in as much as details are concerned. They seem very consistent to my understanding as well, so perhaps we're on the same page but reading in different directions.

I can agree more with your assertion that mis-pricing risk (and mis-rating risk for that matter, i.e. CDO's) is the general failure here more than I would put definitive blame on Fannie and Freddie or credit default swaps for that matter. I also agree that the retraction in the commercial paper market was a case of big risk no reward once Lehman defaulted. Having had holdings in both commercial paper and auction rate securities I understand this at a personal level. But the underlying default rate on mortgages doesn't seem to justify any of this without swaps amplifying the risk away from the defaulting homeowner and toward the defaulting counterparty.

Also, I think your point about lack of transparency is true. With that said, we could probably debate what vehicles are actually lacking.

Would your opinion be that credit will loosen, markets will bottom out, and things will return to normal in 30 months? Or that job losses and foreclosures will exacerbate tight credit until the CDS doomsday device goes off?

Thanks for the discussion.
 
I can type 50, but I can only think 5.

I appreciate your insights. Honestly, you've given this a bit more thought than I have in as much as details are concerned. They seem very consistent to my understanding as well, so perhaps we're on the same page but reading in different directions.

I can agree more with your assertion that mis-pricing risk (and mis-rating risk for that matter, i.e. CDO's) is the general failure here more than I would put definitive blame on Fannie and Freddie or credit default swaps for that matter. I also agree that the retraction in the commercial paper market was a case of big risk no reward once Lehman defaulted. Having had holdings in both commercial paper and auction rate securities I understand this at a personal level. But the underlying default rate on mortgages doesn't seem to justify any of this without swaps amplifying the risk away from the defaulting homeowner and toward the defaulting counterparty.

Also, I think your point about lack of transparency is true. With that said, we could probably debate what vehicles are actually lacking.

Would your opinion be that credit will loosen, markets will bottom out, and things will return to normal in 30 months? Or that job losses and foreclosures will exacerbate tight credit until the CDS doomsday device goes off?

Thanks for the discussion.

That is the $100 question. Your suggested time frame of 30 months alone speaks highly of your understanding of this situation. We are without a doubt at a tipping point. I have been trying to gather information from people who know more than me in order to at least figure out what to watch out for. The final repercussion of this ordeal that I was predicting was the coordinated rate cut. At that point, continued liquidity efforts will either stop a deflationary spiral or they won't. Commodities in general (oil, copper) and the valuations of firms dependent on short term paper (think GM-like) are still pricing in deflation but not a complete collapse. There are many firms trading at levels where any additional earnings go straight to share holders, like a P/E of 1:1 i.e. with the associated projected earnings.

The only thing I'm still sure of on a macro level is housing prices will continue to decline. Attempting to fully stop it will be counter productive, but getting "some" people out of ARM's etc. might be able to restore some normality without creating further distortions. If all these instruments do not currently price in another 10-15% fall in home values.. not ideal. However, I've analyzed a few tranches, like the ones the government was supposedly going to (has?) purchased and they are trading at give away prices, meaning if homes fell another* 40% nationwide they would still* return a positive yield. Based on that anecdotal evidence, it suggests that some asset prices are not only below their "intrinsic" value, but that the only reason they are trading at these levels is because of the malfunction of the credit markets. This is definitely a good thing. If these sorts of situations weren't happening somewhat regularly, I'd still be looking for significantly more downside with great confidence. If you check the stock market thread, I've been doing some buying recently (last week) in new positions.

A professor at UT Austin I met while studying there owns a large commercial property/construction consulting firm and I've been trying to meet up with him recently but he's been "barraged" with phone calls from concerned clients. I know he's going to have valuable insight, we had these past few months pretty well figured out about 9 months ago. Too bad we didn't put our money where are brains were with more conviction.
 
That is the $100 question. Your suggested time frame of 30 months alone speaks highly of your understanding of this situation. We are without a doubt at a tipping point. I have been trying to gather information from people who know more than me in order to at least figure out what to watch out for. The final repercussion of this ordeal that I was predicting was the coordinated rate cut. At that point, continued liquidity efforts will either stop a deflationary spiral or they won't. Commodities in general (oil, copper) and the valuations of firms dependent on short term paper (think GM-like) are still pricing in deflation but not a complete collapse. There are many firms trading at levels where any additional earnings go straight to share holders, like a P/E of 1:1 i.e. with the associated projected earnings.

The only thing I'm still sure of on a macro level is housing prices will continue to decline. Attempting to fully stop it will be counter productive, but getting "some" people out of ARM's etc. might be able to restore some normality without creating further distortions. If all these instruments do not currently price in another 10-15% fall in home values.. not ideal. However, I've analyzed a few tranches, like the ones the government was supposedly going to (has?) purchased and they are trading at give away prices, meaning if homes fell another* 40% nationwide they would still* return a positive yield. Based on that anecdotal evidence, it suggests that some asset prices are not only below their "intrinsic" value, but that the only reason they are trading at these levels is because of the malfunction of the credit markets. This is definitely a good thing. If these sorts of situations weren't happening somewhat regularly, I'd still be looking for significantly more downside with great confidence. If you check the stock market thread, I've been doing some buying recently (last week) in new positions.

A professor at UT Austin I met while studying there owns a large commercial property/construction consulting firm and I've been trying to meet up with him recently but he's been "barraged" with phone calls from concerned clients. I know he's going to have valuable insight, we had these past few months pretty well figured out about 9 months ago. Too bad we didn't put our money where are brains were with more conviction.

My timeframe of 30 months (of which we're in month 12) is based only on review of market moves after the dotcom bust. If you look peak to trough it ran about 30 months. I've also speculated at a psychological floor of 8000 for the Dow based on the same historical references. So far the Dow dropped below 8000 for only about 5 minutes during trading. It's a rather arbitrary choice on my part.

The $100 question for me is where the money is going this time around. The housing bubble was far more leveraged than the dotcom bubble, and that leaves an investment vacuum in my eyes. Money has moved out of just about everything I own so it'll be interesting to see which reacts first on the upswing.
 
I wonder if you'd vote for McCain if he was Muslim. Oh wait, if he was then there is no way he'd get nominated. Did you know that McCain converted to Buddhism while in Vietnam? I bet you didn't.

LOL

Your posts are ignorance since you've mentioned about buddhism.
 
Yep, he's going to be the president.

It's going to be more important than ever for conservatives to challenge Obama when indicated. And I would have said this with McCain as well.

Obama's not going to be able to get all his wishlist approved and there's not going to be enough money anyway. We all know his numbers don't add up.

There are real important things to stand up against. For example...

NO - On the elimination of the private union ballot (Card Check). This has to be fought tooth and nail. Even George McGovern knows it's wrong.

NO - On the Fairness Doctrine. We don't need the government determining free speech.

NO - On gutting the military. Cuts, yes. Gutting it by 1/4? No.


.
 
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Listen ya'll. A vote for Obama is a vote for socialism and a vote against democracy and your freedoms. That's just the truth. Do some research.

Off hte top of my hea:
-Obama's going to make Gore his EPA hippie czar. Watch emissions restrictions tighten, huge gas tax etc...you're not going to be able to get a emision work sticker, or find counties where you don't have to pass emissions.. have a turbo? Too bad.
-He's going to put the most marxist judges on the court.
-He's going to (re)instate the "Fairness" (eg hypocrisy) doctrine that forces radio stations to give time for "dissenting" controversial views. WTF? That's straight up communism. In fact, the "fairness" doctrine actually arose to COMBATE socialist movement in the 30s/40s. Now it's going to be used backwards!
-Welcome to "hate speech" laws where if you say something that could be considered "offensive" to race, religion, sex, sexual orientation you can be draggd out in court or easily sued.
--Look up "Ezra Levant" and "kangaroo courts" in Canada. Read "America Alone."

America is blind. We are the best nation in the world, which has always led, and now we want to FOLLOW backwards socialist ideas.

If you want the US to be like France, or Canada, MOVE THERE. Move to a place where 10% unemployment is considered a strong economy, where you have 100k knive crimes and 10K+ deaths b/c you can't protect yourself and hae a gun. Meanwhile, gangs are getting guns anyway..

You think Obama and Democrats won't do this? You're wrong.

Obama is the most socialist (he was actually part of the Socialist Party), far left nutjob ever. He makes Clinton & Kerry & Teddy blush.

A vote for Obama is a vote for socialism, against Democracy, against freedoms, against economy, and maybe, just maybe, a vote for terrorism.

Saved for a good laugh later.
 
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