More than 70,000 jobs were lost YESTERDAY!
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Do you think we're in the next Great Depression? Y/N
- Thread starter Ski_Banker
- Start date
The numbers are rigged. It's a joke. They don't count, they calculate unemployment. There are many factors such as 50k "seasonal" construction jobs simply "included" in the employment figures by default. Unemployment by the definition of the actual term is already a mininum of 8.5% nationwide.
It's no different than when the government "adjusted" how they "calculated" inflation at the realization of the inflection point with SS benfits. In order to get it under control they lowered inflation through "adjusting" the calculation. Keeping payments fixed, lowering benefits. It's rigged.
It's no different than when the government "adjusted" how they "calculated" inflation at the realization of the inflection point with SS benfits. In order to get it under control they lowered inflation through "adjusting" the calculation. Keeping payments fixed, lowering benefits. It's rigged.
Waaaay ahead of you. :wink:
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Ski_Banker
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The next Simpsons episode:
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
(I told you so)
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
Our economy hasn't been fueled by credit expansion
(I told you so)
Sweeeet pic!!!
lol. It's true. How long can America pay it's mortgage payment with it's credit card? That's the question.
Ski_Banker
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The Terminator is now giving out IOUs instead of U.S. Dollar tax refunds for people that overpaid in 2008. :tongue: Anyone seen Dumb and Dumber?
Sorry for our Cali contingency... other states will follow unless the Feds plug the hole (quite likely).
Sorry for our Cali contingency... other states will follow unless the Feds plug the hole (quite likely).
How are they going to plug the hole? Simply borrow more money from China and give it to Cali? I guess that's all they can do right?
Man, we're lucky China is being so cool about this. Without them we would without a doubt be in a great depression right now.
You are very right. We are lucky china has been so good about it so far. But I wouldn't expect them to continue eating our shit sandwich forever. I saw "The Ascent of Money" on PBS over the weekend and they were talking about this exact phenomenon that has basically allowed the spending boom over here for the past decade. Its all because china kept buying our debt. But they are already starting to cut back and there are rumors that it may increase substantially. And if China goes away... we are screwed. Likewise, if we default... we are screwed.
Don't think for a minute China doesn't have economists that can see the writing on the wall here...
I just searched for that show you mentioned. I'll watch it tonight.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-545930454338776455
Yeah you're 100% right about if China goes away. I would have to imagine what would happen to the TBill would be the EXACT equivalent of the 1929 bankrun. Every country in the world that owns our TBills would try to cash out before the other countries. And as soon as we tell the first country 'we don't have your money right now' it's game over. The USD = $0.
Ski_Banker
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Don't think so. The US$ will always (at least for many years) remain the safest place to put money in the financial system. The whole world is going through the same problems as us. However, that doesn't mean that Treasury funding costs won't go up very substantially.
Mark my words: 2009 will be the year of gov't expropriations. All these little emerging markets will have trouble raising gov't money, and those gov'ts will resort to stealing in order to stay in business. I'd be particularly wary of gold mines owned by Western companies in some really unstable places. Oil assets too.
You can see the whole program here:
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/featured/watch-full-program-the-ascent-of-money/24/
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/featured/watch-full-program-the-ascent-of-money/24/
depressions do not have an accepted definition. they are not defined by unemployment. ALL ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS were defined as recessions unti the 1930's when they decided to call it a depression simply because it was a bigger recession. that is why it is senseless to ask the question "are we in a depression". there is not a definition.
what i think is going to happen to the USA is either a japan type scenario or an iceland type scenario.
japan = fiscal conservatism protecting the yen resulting in 10 years of "recession" and a strong yen.
iceland = 50% reduction of the icelandic krone value in a very short time.
if obama's team is really good they will walk a fine line between iceland and japan. are they that good? we will find out. but a democratic administration will err on the side of inflation, so i see a possible 50% reduction in our purchasing power and a corresponding reduction in the USA standard of living
as a result. you will make the same take home pay but it will buy way less. this will not result in armageddon or whatever the survivalists are preaching. it will result in all of us eating out less, living in smaller homes, and basically not driving the world's best cars etc. middle class will live more like
lower middle class. less opportunities for businesses. less money for fun. less steaks and more macaroni and cheese. no trips to europe, or if you go, you will go once. less skiing in the rockies. that sort of thing.
what i think is going to happen to the USA is either a japan type scenario or an iceland type scenario.
japan = fiscal conservatism protecting the yen resulting in 10 years of "recession" and a strong yen.
iceland = 50% reduction of the icelandic krone value in a very short time.
if obama's team is really good they will walk a fine line between iceland and japan. are they that good? we will find out. but a democratic administration will err on the side of inflation, so i see a possible 50% reduction in our purchasing power and a corresponding reduction in the USA standard of living
as a result. you will make the same take home pay but it will buy way less. this will not result in armageddon or whatever the survivalists are preaching. it will result in all of us eating out less, living in smaller homes, and basically not driving the world's best cars etc. middle class will live more like
lower middle class. less opportunities for businesses. less money for fun. less steaks and more macaroni and cheese. no trips to europe, or if you go, you will go once. less skiing in the rockies. that sort of thing.
ok, hmmm, most of our problem are really keeping up with the house mortgage, if we got same income, and I have fixed rate mortgage; then I might not be able to take my nsx out to track anymore, but at least I still living in the same house?? Is my line of thought right???
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I'm not worried. Canada is at least 10 years behind the USA.
Ski_Banker
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That all sounds peaches 'n cream. "Hey, we'll all just have to accept a lower standard of living...ya, know, that sort of thing" Rigghhttt....
I wouldn't be so cavalier about how "just having to accept a lower standard of living" will affect our society, our government, and those of nations all around the world.
Ski_Banker
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Not true. The early 1890s experienced what economists today uniformly call a depression. However, it was much shorter in duration and less severe than the one in the 1930s, hence it being commonly called the Great Depression.
if the currency is worth 50% less then your home will be worth twice as much when you sell it.
you will make out like a bandit. when inflation happens you want to be out of the dollar and in assets like houses or cars or diamonds etc.
but what is the definition of a depression??
there is none. how do you tell a recession from a depression?
you cannot. there is no accepted definition.
from wikipedia
"Though there is no widely accepted definition for an economic depression, according to an article in The Economist, there are two rules of thumb found widely on the internet. One is a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, and the other is a recession lasting 3 or more years.[4]"
What he said X100!!!!!
Ski_Banker
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Are you serious??? Best of luck to you if these are the things that occupy your thought processes.
"If you can control the meaning of
words, you can control the people
who must use the words."
Source: Philip K. Dick
Ski_Banker
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touche :wink::smile:
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