Stock market - look up above

[Ultraman]

After today's powerful rally, I'm going to start another thread on the market.

It's the most impressive month in terms of gain since 1974.

What's your thoughts on the market by the end of the year?

Personally I feel the market still have legs, possibly to 1350 for the S&P 500.

 

[jond]

Stock market is just adjusting for inflation. Who printed more money?

 

[shawn110975]

sorry but im part of the 99%

you bury your hard earned money in airtight bag /with anti-moisture pack inside then bag then into ziplock bags. bury it in your yard.

when you need money it will always be there.

pay for everything in cash

they cant TAX something they dont know about. f-em

 

[bfrank1972]

sorry but im part of the 99%

you bury your hard earned money in airtight bag /with anti-moisture pack inside then bag then into ziplock bags. bury it in your yard.

when you need money it will always be there.

pay for everything in cash

they cant TAX something they dont know about. f-em

Shawn, something tells me that soon you're going to find some IRS auditors on your doorstep with shovels on their shoulders :biggrin:

 

[shawn110975]

LOL.

Lie while your on earth, stand at the gates of heaven and you smile and tell the truth.

( :edit thought I should remove any info on my secrets LOL )

 

[Big_D]

You know, its kind of funny how this market is so sketchy these days. One bad earnings report and people hit the sell button. Lots of day trading and then after hours you got hedge funds taking advantage of sell-offs and then the stock shows a pulse and everyone jumps back on the bandwagon. It seems like its been such a rollercoaster since '06.

I usually sit out the latter part of the year because it USED to be a bad time for me personally. But after the last pull-back I gained some optimism and jumped back in and I am very happy that I did. I was down =O( 4% for the entire year until October. Now I am happy to report that I am up =O) 3.6% YTD. :smile: I sure hope that the market still has some good days left. I'd love to hit my target of 8 percent before New Years.

 

[jond]

You know, its kind of funny how this market is so sketchy these days.

Another funny thing is a LOT of retirement accounts assume a 8% return on investment. That hasn't happened since the 90s. Given the state of things, I skeptical we'll go up 8% a year from 12,000, on average, for the next decade.

So basically, everyone in their 20s and 30s, find a profession that's not too strenuous. You might be doing it into yours 70s or 80s.

 

[pgilliam1]

So the market is rallying because the Greek bailout will put Greece's debt at 120% of GDP by the year 2020, and the finance gurus think THAT is more manageable. The Italian debt is way over 1 trillion with no plan on how to pay it down and their economy is contracting. The economics I studied in college couldn't even begin to address the debt situation the world economy is in right now. Blind optimism is all that is driving this market, not economic sense. Look out below - or - Look up above, my advice is to just L@@K OUT!

 

[Ultraman]

From August to end of September, the market tanked because it was factoring in the worse case scenario, that Greece will go into default and U.S. will be in another recession. Based on the data came out yesterday, looks like there will be some kind of resolution for Greece, and most importantly, that the United States will not be in another recession, at least for the time being. Another news is looks China is done tightening and will be able to achieve a so call "soft landing". All these are good news and sent the market higher and marked the best month since 1974 (that's pretty impressive).

Going into November, couple scenarios could happen: 1. Some bad news coming from Europe which will crash the rally, 2. We continue to hear progress made in Europe, the mutual fund been sitting on the sideline (in cash) need to catch up the huge gains they misses and pushes the market even higher.

Based on the S&P companies that have reported their earnings so far, more than ~70% have beat their earnings estimates. I think if we hear more progress on Greece the market can possibly hit 1350 by year end.

Good time to shuffle the portfolio a bit. I'm using this opportunity to sell some of the losers and try to get in the good names on pull back.

 

[Big_D]

Another funny thing is a LOT of retirement accounts assume a 8% return on investment. That hasn't happened since the 90s. Given the state of things, I skeptical we'll go up 8% a year from 12,000, on average, for the next decade.

So basically, everyone in their 20s and 30s, find a profession that's not too strenuous. You might be doing it into yours 70s or 80s.

Yeah, thats true. With some past years posting a negative, that will throw the whole retirement planning into a tail spin!

I am still trying to play catch up from the dot com bust in 2000.

Thinking about it... Gold is way too high, real estate is not going to appreciate too much anytime soon so the only thing worth while to invest in is stocks and bonds...unless I am missing something.

 

[Big_D]

Good time to shuffle the portfolio a bit. I'm using this opportunity to sell some of the losers and try to get in the good names on pull back.

Agree 100%...

In fact I have some of those same stock picks you mentioned in the Look out Below thread and they have done VERY well since then.

 

[Ultraman]

I was REALLY impressed how some of those industrial, energy and material names have roared back yesterday.

This tells me they are still very much undervalued.

Since we've dodged the recession bullet I'm also looking into some of the coal names, like BTU, BHP and ACI.

 

[Ultraman]

I usually sit out the latter part of the year because it USED to be a bad time for me personally. But after the last pull-back I gained some optimism and jumped back in and I am very happy that I did. I was down =O( 4% for the entire year until October. Now I am happy to report that I am up =O) 3.6% YTD. :smile: I sure hope that the market still has some good days left. I'd love to hit my target of 8 percent before New Years.

Glad to know you jumped back in and was able to catch the October run. If we continue with the rally I have a good feeling you'll achieve your goal for 2011. :smile:

 

[Ultraman]

You know, its kind of funny how this market is so sketchy these days. One bad earnings report and people hit the sell button. Lots of day trading and then after hours you got hedge funds taking advantage of sell-offs and then the stock shows a pulse and everyone jumps back on the bandwagon. It seems like its been such a rollercoaster since '06.

I absolutely agree. Nowadays the Wall Street is dominated by so called high frequency trading which is pretty much a computer program that does the buy and sell. It's like man (retail investor) vs. machine. Just need to remember "don't panic" and "don't be greedy", it's not easy.

 

[goa360]

< 10% controlling and > 90 % we belong.

 

[docjohn]

I'm with you guys that think an 8-10 % yield every year that most 401/financial planners use to calculate your portfolio's growth are smoking canibus. Next week should be interresting.

 

[bobert486]

Cant help but ponder the story with silver. I remember the craze earlier this year. The bubble finally burst and has been up/down, kinda stable around the low-mid 30's. Anyone else think it will climb back into the high 30's to low 40's? as of now its about 34 climbing from a recent low of 29. What has me hesitant is how silver doesnt follow the same trend as other whether its following the markets or equally reciprocating.

 

[jond]

Thinking about it... Gold is way too high, real estate is not going to appreciate too much anytime soon so the only thing worth while to invest in is stocks and bonds...unless I am missing something.

I think the way I would phrase the question would be, 'This is Japan 1994, what were the best things to invest in, in Japan in 1994-2011'?
I know where you shouldn't have invested. But I don't know where would have worked? Does anyone here know? If you made your salary in Japanese YEN, where should you have put your money over the last 18 years?

Just holding cash would have been a lot better than the stock market or realestate, but SOMETHING had to do well????


Not stocks:

Not realestate:

 

[kookoo4nsx]

There is something called the magazine cover indicator. What this means is whenever a company or "market" is the focus of the cover of Time, Newsweek ect.................do the opposite. The same can be applied to threads like this. Just observing human nature. I'm an Economics major but I also graduated with a minor in Sociology. I didn't know why I liked Sociology at the time but it is interesting how both of my collegiate focuses are tied together.

The "look out below" thread was started 3 days before the August market bottom. I am going to bet the "look out above" thread will prove to be made at a market top.

What is driving the market is soooo many money managers are severely trailing market returns and are using leverage to attempt to recoup and save their Christmas bonus.

I also think that the market could be accounting for an increasing chance that our current President will not be in office 4 more years. That alone is worth 2000 points. (IMO)

 

[kookoo4nsx]

JOND,

Can you please post a chart of the Japanese real estate bubble and overlay our real estate bubble? I remember seeing this chart somewhere and it predicted our housing prices have nearly perfectly matched their housing price fall. If that was true, our housing market bottom will not be here until 2016. I tend to agree.

As to answer your question as to the best long term Japanese investment it was long term government bonds.

 

[jond]

JOND,

Can you please post a chart of the Japanese real estate bubble and overlay our real estate bubble?

I'm having a hard time finding it. But if we follow Japan we can see, for them, eventually home prices went back to pre-bubble prices.
For us, that means about a 35% drop from todays prices.

As to answer your question as to the best long term Japanese investment it was long term government bonds.

Do you know if the rates on theirs were as low as ours are(~2.5%)?

 

[pgilliam1]

From August to end of September, the market tanked because it was factoring in the worse case scenario, that Greece will go into default and U.S. will be in another recession. Based on the data came out yesterday, looks like there will be some kind of resolution for Greece, and most importantly, that the United States will not be in another recession, at least for the time being.

The resolution for Greece looks like a default to me. Their bondholders are going to take a 50% haircut.

Every state in the USA, except 2, is in the RED (at unprecedented levels) and having to make austerity cuts to education, fire and police protection. Housing is predicted to fall for another year or 2 and unemployment predicted to stay above 9% through 2012. Another recession would be more probable than not. I really can't see the driving factor to a recovery. I'm not usually a pessimist, but it's hard to see an economic recovery happening .

 

[Budweiser®]

There is something called the magazine cover indicator. What this means is whenever a company or "market" is the focus of the cover of Time, Newsweek ect.................do the opposite. The same can be applied to threads like this. Just observing human nature. I'm an Economics major but I also graduated with a minor in Sociology. I didn't know why I liked Sociology at the time but it is interesting how both of my collegiate focuses are tied together.

The "look out below" thread was started 3 days before the August market bottom. I am going to bet the "look out above" thread will prove to be made at a market top.

What is driving the market is soooo many money managers are severely trailing market returns and are using leverage to attempt to recoup and save their Christmas bonus.

I also think that the market could be accounting for an increasing chance that our current President will not be in office 4 more years. That alone is worth 2000 points. (IMO)

Down 500 from the start of the thread :biggrin:

 

[Ultraman]

We were sitting on a spike so gotta let some profit takers do their thing before heading higher. The prime minister of Greece's decision to call for a referendum spooked the market. We need to see how this develop in the coming week.

 

[Ultraman]

S&P 500 had a nice 2 day upside reversal which bounced off the 100 day MA, and looks like we closed above the resistance at 1,273 today, not bad at all!