All major indeces broke support today... looks like a double top has formed and I'm turning bearish on the market ... the saying of sell in May is true again for 2012.
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- Thread starter Ultraman
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I absolutely agree.
I'm of the opinion that the entire public will become wise to privacy issues as the government gets more and more intrusive. Facebook will be a casualty.
FB opened at 42 and change and now down to 38 which is the offering price, this is as strange as it is unbelievable.
I guess since the doofus facebook co-founder now "lives in singapore", he can't write losses off on his taxes...
Yeah, every analyst I've heard talk about FB got it wrong. Nobody suggested that when FB IPOd it would be available pretty close to IPO price and wouldn't deviate all that much from that price.
Before 11am I was hearing talk of orders coming in from Germany offering up to $70/share and most talking heads were expecting somewhere in the 70s to likely be where things would start this morning, and from there was anybody's guess.
Before 11am I was hearing talk of orders coming in from Germany offering up to $70/share and most talking heads were expecting somewhere in the 70s to likely be where things would start this morning, and from there was anybody's guess.
Looks like FB continues to falling apart, as well as the major averages.
We're basically holding hostage by Greece and Spain.
We're basically holding hostage by Greece and Spain.
That and we we're pretty over valued IMO.
The stock market seemed to only be correcting for money printing and Fed twisting. Stop that, and the 'growth' stops.
Rumor of QE3(4?) in 2 weeks. Any bets?
My guess is another 'twist' style QE where the average person doesn't understand or get angry about it.
How twisting works:
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/23/operation-twist-101/
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My guess is another 'twist' style QE where the average person doesn't understand or get angry about it.
How twisting works:
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/23/operation-twist-101/
.
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Put out your low ball bids and hang on for the ride. I've got pages of bids out there I just reviewed. Most are 15-35% out of the money right now but give it some time.. I'll get hit on them soon enough. Panic=opportunity.
care to share?
Europe doesn't have the ability to print money like we did, and thus may have a run on the banks collapsing the currency of all of europe?
Well said...!
care to share?
Not at all pal, but don't penny me!
These are a good portion of them and easily purchased with any broker; I changed the prices slightly today a few minutes ago. I have some others that are hedges I don't want to put here because they are not something I want people 'copying.' FXF is similar in nature to those.
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day FXF Buy XVA7D0D20120605 Limit $102.06 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:15 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day XOM Buy XSC907320120605 Limit $61.06 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:13 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day NUV Buy XLAB6A820120605 Limit $9.06 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:11 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day NXP Buy XUA119720120605 Limit $13.14 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:09 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day XOM Buy XID572A20120605 Limit $70.06 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:08 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day CVX Buy XEDC46120120605 Limit $80.06 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:07 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day ATVI Sell XBDBADF20120605 Limit $15.88 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:07 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day TGP Buy XXD524720120605 Limit $31.55 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:06 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day WFCpJ Buy XKA14E220120605 Limit $26.06 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:06 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day WFM Buy XBDBADE20120605 Limit $40.26 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:05 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day AMZN Buy XKD8C3020120605 Limit $110.26 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:04 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day GSTpA Buy XSB141520120605 Limit $18.81 GTC None 6/5/2012 7:04 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day F Buy XTA877420120605 Limit $8.11 GTC None 6/5/2012 6:58 PM Regular
Modify Cancel Queued: Next Trading Day FpA Buy XWBD0E620120605 Limit $25.29 GTC None 6/5/2012 6:57 PM Regular
Europe can certainly 'print' money and are already doing so. They do not, however, have the same range as tools as we do.
The situation in Europe is extremely complex. The way their banking systems function with the national governments is not separated like here in the states. When the banks go down, so do the nation states. France's banks are 4 times the country's GDP.
The liabilities of little old Greece alone will blow a hole in french/german/etc. banks so huge it will put them near the edge. Even considering writing down Spanish debt will crush the EU. I am starting some very interesting hedges against an EU/Euro collapse. Getting long German and Swiss bonds (and the franc) is going to be the trade of the decade if this thing falls apart. I am long the franc as of today (I was just there last week!). If they finally give up and drop the peg to the Euro, their bonds/currency will EXPLODE upwards over night.
If you want a call option on the euro breaking up, you buy german debt. If it were re-denominated in the Deutsche mark, it would easily double, maybe triple in value over what it was worth in the crumbling Euro. I was literally getting a natural high reviewing all the possibilities earlier today while at work. These massive imbalances and market manipulations by global governments is not sustainable. When it finally gives, there will be trillions of dollars shifting hands over night.
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Thanks for sharing, interesting just looking at some of those, not that I can see what you see, I just like trying to figure it out . How come you have two buy orders in for XOM?
. How come you have two buy orders in for XOM?Not without Germany and France allowing the other countries to do so, correct?
And that's probably not going to happen?
Last I read, they're trying to get a world wide QE going in the form of a bond rate twist.
Yeah, it's sketch when you start to think about the 'what ifs'.
What if a few countries in Europe have full-on runs on the bank.
Like on CNN, there are people lined up around the bank, and people on the internet(overseas) saying they can't get money out of their ATM, they can't use checks, they can't pay bills, they can't get food.
What happens HERE????
Would you feel safe with 100% of your money in your bank, only withdrawing cash as needed? Or would you pull out a few weeks of spending money. And what if our banks put limits on withdraws.
What happens when FDIC kicks in? How well will it work? How sketched out will people be?
It could get out of control quick.
But what's the other option? To print money forever going forward? That won't work...
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There isn't much good news around these days ... I don't see any catalyst that can push the market higher. On the other hand we could get lots of bad news.
So where's a good place to put your money?
So where's a good place to put your money?
A world-wide QE will be a nice sugar high for the market.
That's what the ECB is talking about, and it looks like our FED might print some US Dollars to throw into the mix. Hey, printing is free, why not :|
90% of my money has been in cash for several years now. I'm looking to move it to rental properties and turn it into a lifetime of *passive* income.
I don't see any other good places to put it.
Thanks for sharing, interesting just looking at some of those, not that I can see what you see, I just like trying to figure it out
Rob,
If you have the time, i'd suggest pulling up some charts and seeing where those prices are relative to historical prices. In addition, the yield on the securities and the sector.
I have multiple buy orders for most of my positions. For XOM, if I was starting a new position, I might buy 40% at ~$70 (one major support area and valuation/yield level) and 60% at ~$60 (another major support area and valuation/yield level). It may take years for both of those to be hit but the risk is I hold cash in a deflationary environment - not a big deal.
The price you pay is at least as important as what you are buying. Most positions require scaling in and out. It's a pita but a necessary evil for proper risk and position management.
I'm impressed by the rally today, however there's no real resolution on the European debt issue yet so I think it's a short covering rally.
I agree with the rental properties approach. If you get the right property yield can be close to 10% or more and I feel better holding a real house than stock certificate.
Can anyone explain why China lowering interest rates would be a positive thing for the US stock market? Seems like it would be the opposite.
Seems like lower Chinese interest rates would equal a stronger dollar which would equal a lower stock market????
Seems like lower Chinese interest rates would equal a stronger dollar which would equal a lower stock market????
Companies don't hit projections and their stock rises. Companies exceed expectations and it falls. With today's market, if a CEO were to fart on live TV it would cause the stock to fall. It is a circus that is manipulated by crooks and media.
Forget it...never again!
Forget it...never again!
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Well there's always 2 sides to the story. One way to spin it is with the Chinese government willing to stimulate the economy China will have a soft landing and thus benefit the world economy as a whole.
This is going to sound like I'm avoiding your question but I'm not.
Everyday a handful of reporters choose the day's head line. Most of the time it is meaningless.
I sat in front of half a dozen monitors watching everything going on in the markets you can imagine from 7:30am to 4pm CST non stop for years. Most of the end of day head lines were just gibberish. The market went up because more people bought than sold. Trying to rationalize one day moves in the stock market is a frustrating and pointless exercise.
Just to clarify, if the Euro collapses:
1. The USD rallies, Stocks/Bonds fall, Gold rallies
2. US economy sees deflation
3. Fed will print like crazy trying to stop deflation
4. If deflation happens the economy enters a depression for 3-10 years
Is that correct?
Also, if the euro collapses, would that kill any US banks?
I would assume any US bank holding euros would go bankrupt?
1. The USD rallies, Stocks/Bonds fall, Gold rallies
2. US economy sees deflation
3. Fed will print like crazy trying to stop deflation
4. If deflation happens the economy enters a depression for 3-10 years
Is that correct?
Also, if the euro collapses, would that kill any US banks?
I would assume any US bank holding euros would go bankrupt?
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