Oil leak in the gulf

[NsXMas]

great, thanks for your posts.
once again, just to make sure i am not misunderstood, i am not speculating what has caused the explosion and consequent sinking nor am i simplifying the rescue operation and difficulty of dealing with debris.

my assesment is a simple failure mode-analysis.
summarizing my previous posts-
IMHO the current well-head safety features are not up to snuff if, even though they are automated and have manual backup, they can fail- that is not acceptable on such a crucial piece of equipment. from Ko-nsx comments i surmise that all automated safety systems are dependant on power generation from the rig, which in itself is a faulty approach- it is obvious you cannot trigger the safety devices if there is no power or crew to do so. this is what i have been trying to point out. for these systems to be effective and dependable they must be independent from all outside factors- just like the black-box on the airliner- power, weather and humans.
the shutoff should be triggered not by the crew but by any event outside of normal operation- pressure change, power loss, water leak etc. and the systems doing so should be powered by a source located on the well-head, not on the rig (maybe a set of batteries continuously charged by the rig up to the point of need).
in this case it is 'spilled milk' but i hope that the least we get from this tragedy is an evaluation / redesign of our safety systems on the sea-floor.

All this speculation, reminds me of grannies doing hand-wringing.

How do you know they didn't have some type of device like what you proposed, that failed due to the accident? It will become much more clear in the coming days as people do their investigations.

I work on very complex projects, and I see outsiders always coming to false conclusions based upon very partial evidence, without realizing that what they propose / thought was already done and didn't work due to some reason.

This is why I replied so harshly to your post. You're an engineer, realize that there are a lot of smart people who work on oil rigs and complex problems like this. I'm sure they would have thought through these issues just like you have, and for whatever reason, make some difficult choices that may not have been perfect, but may have been the best they could be at the time.

And since humans are imperfect, an unforseen situation occurred that caused this situation and now they're all trying to figure out what happened and how best to resolve it.

I'm shocked that as an engineer you don't comprehend this - Anything made by man, can and will fail, regardless of how "perfect" it is designed. There is NO SUCH THING as perfection, period.

Rather than jumping on the soap box and making myself look like a fool and declaring things I do not know yet, I'm sitting back, wait for new facts to surface, before I come to any judgements and condemn anyone for this disaster. At this time the best thing to do is to hope for the best, and trying to figure out how we can help.

 

[swerve2007]

All this speculation, reminds me of grannies doing hand-wringing.

How do you know they didn't have some type of device like what you proposed, that failed due to the accident?

because posters-in-the-know said they are activated and powered by the rig/crew so destruction of both took away the control. there was no explosion underwater.

I'm shocked that as an engineer you don't comprehend this - Anything made by man, can and will fail, regardless of how "perfect" it is designed. There is NO SUCH THING as perfection, period.

i disagree precisely because i am an engineer- we are talking about specialized one-off assemblies that can be build, tested and scrutinised to death- like airplane black boxes for instance- it is just a matter of cost. if something like this fails then it did not have enaugh sophistication built-in. the 'nothing is perfect' can and does apply to normal production where things do happen but not in industries where lives are at stake- if that was the case we would have planes dropping out of the sky daily not once in a while and mostly due to human error.

Rather than jumping on the soap box and making myself look like a fool and declaring things I do not know yet, I'm sitting back, wait for new facts to surface, before I come to any judgements and condemn anyone for this disaster. At this time the best thing to do is to hope for the best, and trying to figure out how we can help.

you are reading way to far into this.
i simply separated the actual modal cause of the leak (failure of well-head installed safety devices- notice did not say how as i do not know) from the sinking of the rig even taking the blame away from the crew just because my previous posts were erroneusly taken as crew's condemnation. the rig explosion is one thing, failure of safety devices that should work independently is another. THE ONLY REASON WHY I WENT TO SUCH AN EXTREME WITH THIS IS TO MAKE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THAT I DO NOT BLAME THE CREW as consequent posts implied!
most important- note that i identified the FAILURE MODE not CAUSE- i do not know how it failed, what did not work etc. it is a systemic evaluation not analysis of piece of equipment to see what nut fell off. to claim to have the answers about such details at this time is ignorant at best.

EDIT: for comparison:
what i am saying is -"the brakes on the toyotas failed due to cost-related quality escapes" not "the washer on the left caliper cracked and caused the brakes to lock-up". ok? in all these posts i am not 'jumping on the soapbox' but trying to explain that big difference while some posters take it as a fault-proof declaration of knowing the actual cause, down to the nut and bolt which i find irritating because none of my statements is even close to that.

 

[yojack1]

I think the answers to all of these questions will come from what new regulations, inspections and design changes that are surely to be implemented from a disaster that was inevitable at some point. They will look at every aspect from top to bottom and try even harder to be bullet proof. Trying not to be foolish but, there will be a lot more scutiny and different opinions from here on out about everything else, yet to happen. It's only the beginning!
Lets work and stick together and not tear each other up,( I've been guilty of it myself) it just looks bad!

Hang in there Ko-nsx and thanks.

Jack

 

[Ko-nsx]

I really don't want people getting beat up for their opinions.:biggrin:

I see Swerve's point in the matter.

But its kind ahard to have an auto pilot out here. The drillships are different than the semi's but the principles are the same.

As i stated before, the crew did attempt a release. That means somebody said," shut in the well." Even after you signal for a release someone has to raise the top drive up so, that it can actually release, its not remote control. With DP(dynamically positioned) rigs it's called a drive off.
1. Release the LMRP, (the stack stays below to shut in the well) and get away from the well. The Horizons stack and LMRP AND some riser are still attached to the well.

With compensators( they keep the drill pipe from banging the ocean floor during rough sea) and all the other factors, moving the vessels is not instant. The size and weight of the horizon and the enterpise is mind blowing. Running balls out to the well with the stack on deck, the rig ship does about 6 knots. If we have a headwind, birds roll faster than we do.

As far as back-up things go. Most of the equipment here is pnuematic. Its intrinsically safe and runs with no electricity.:biggrin: So even in a TOTAL blackout the essential things will function to get a generator back online.
We have gas detectors(they just bought out about 30 more to set around the rig) to monitor gas and H2S. Each intake vent on the rig has a gas detector that will slam shut in the event of gas in the air. STILL, there was an explosion on the Horizon, which again is puzzling. There are ESD shutdowns in the OIM(offshore installation manager) office, the rig floor, the subsea dept and the DP office. So there are multiple locations to shut in a well. But no programming to tell the top drive to lift. You really need an ass in the drillers chair. Lots of airplane accidents caused by human error, doesn't make me what to ride in an unmanned aircraft.

ALL of the equipent is backed up by UPS and THAT UPS is backed up by a UPS.:smile:

The fact that 119 people out of 130 got off is a testiment of the safety out here, but an explosion is different. Even a fire is controllable, but an explosion? That means get out of dodge.
I hear the are planning to clean up and raise what they can of the Horizon. Not sure how long that would take but all resources now are on spill containment and well control. BP is offfering contract to the fisherman shoreside that would to lend their vessels(im not sure, just what i heard). Our bandwdth here is slow so i can't post lots of pics. I'd love too but i'd take forever. I'll try asap. :biggrin:

Be nice guys.:biggrin:

 

[Ko-nsx]

I think the answers to all of these questions will come from what new regulations, inspections and design changes that are surely to be implemented from a disaster that was inevitable at some point. They will look at every aspect from top to bottom and try even harder to be bullet proof. Trying not to be foolish but, there will be a lot more scutiny and different opinions from here on out about everything else, yet to happen. It's only the beginning!
Lets work and stick together and not tear each other up,( I've been guilty of it myself) it just looks bad!

Hang in there Ko-nsx and thanks.

Jack

thanks.
your comment is true. It cost BP 550,000 a DAY to lease the rig. They have had it now for 10 years. To drill a well and hit no oil it cost roughly 9 mil or so. Everybody wants some regulations and safety but that stuff cost, probably gas price increases. Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die!:biggrin:

 

[yojack1]

thanks.
your comment is true. It cost BP 550,000 a DAY to lease the rig. They have had it now for 10 years. To drill a well and hit no oil it cost roughly 9 mil or so. Everybody wants some regulations and safety but that stuff cost, probably gas price increases. Everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die!:biggrin:

Ko, I just heard that BP was also trying to get those volunteer fisherman to sign waivers and something else that was a little more disturbing and that they may have to only pay $ 75- million (capped) because of some law passed back in 1990. The rest would have to be paid by the U.S. taxpayers.

I hope this is not the case but, I'm wondering how long before the blame games start roaring their ugly head.

Only passing on what I just heard, don't want to get anybody pissed, maybe someone has more that they can add.
They also mentioned their quarterly earnings, the # in the billions was so high, a 75- mil. fine would only take a few hours of earnings to pay for it!

Jack (Trying to tread lightly)

 

[swerve2007]

I really don't want people getting beat up for their opinions.:biggrin:

I see Swerve's point in the matter.

But its kind ahard to have an auto pilot out here. The drillships are different than the semi's but the principles are the same.

thanks for even-handed response.
i understand the complexity of the operation and the effects of weather, equipent failure and possible human error in rig's operation, not questioning that there are multiple safety systems on the rig itself (most of which i admittedly am not familiar with)- thats why the only piece of equipment i was 'attacking' was the well-head itself which is the last 'bastion' of protection from a leak. if we are going to drop something in the 5000ft depths where we can't easily access it to repair or adjust then it really should be bulletproof and its safety systems independent of everything else and as automated as it can be.

back to the subject- BP claimes they will cover ALL costs of cleanup operation, i hope thats not just a smoke screen.

 

[yojack1]

BP CEO Tony Hayward. "All legitimate claims will be honored" which could mean much legal wrangleing lies ahead!

Jack

 

[yojack1]

Good luck to the people who are going to lower the big funnel shortly. I think that it will work for what they need it to do but it's to bad that they don't have a couple of these lying around and ready to go at the drop of a hat.
Any engineer types out there who see any problems that might occur since this will be the first time trying it out at such depth? What if a hurricane pops up, would they just have to disconnect it for awhile? And how dangerous will it be filling up some big old tanks or barges hanging around out there?
Lets keep our fingers crossed and again thanks to everyone working so hard behind the scenes, be safe!

Jack

 

[yojack1]

Good luck to the people who are going to lower the big funnel shortly. I think that it will work for what they need it to do but it's to bad that they don't have a couple of these lying around and ready to go at the drop of a hat.
Any engineer types out there who see any problems that might occur since this will be the first time trying it out at such depth? What if a hurricane pops up, would they just have to disconnect it for awhile? And how dangerous will it be filling up some big old tanks or barges hanging around out there?
Lets keep our fingers crossed and again thanks to everyone working so hard behind the scenes, be safe!

Jack

Now that the dome has failed, (guess brilliance never saw that problem comming) I'm feeling much more confident about the next solution to be tried. This is no joke, golf balls and bits of rubber tires used as a plug.
Estimated time for installment, 3-weeks. This is the perfect example of what can happen with no proven back-up contingency. What do you think the odds are of that (a crapshoot at 5'000') happening again?

Can we see in advance what's on the list for the next fix? Can't wait to hear it!

Jack

 

[Mr Payne]

thanks for even-handed response.
i understand the complexity of the operation and the effects of weather, equipent failure and possible human error in rig's operation, not questioning that there are multiple safety systems on the rig itself (most of which i admittedly am not familiar with)- thats why the only piece of equipment i was 'attacking' was the well-head itself which is the last 'bastion' of protection from a leak. if we are going to drop something in the 5000ft depths where we can't easily access it to repair or adjust then it really should be bulletproof and its safety systems independent of everything else and as automated as it can be.

Wouldn't the fact that this hasn't happened in the GOM before indicate that these guys kind of have a clue what they are doing?

 

[Ko-nsx]

Guys i'm still out here and at this point ya'll know more tha we do!!:smile:

We were directly above the Horizon earlier and had to move because gas levels(benzine) got high. THAT freaked a lot of people out. I think the Hat is going back down with some hot substance, as the nitrates froze the top hat. I just hooked up a bunch of boilers for Schlumberger. I think they are talking about a straight stab onto the Horizon BOP too, they still are not sure of the definite plan at this point. I wish i could upload some of the slides and plans we've seen. MMS just landed about 10 mins ago. I got about 150 pic, gotta try a resize and upload, the water over the site(the zone as we call it), looked like extra black coffee and smelled like diesel fuel. In the safe zone about 5miles out its not so bad. Still saw some sharks and angel fish oddly enough.

It seriously looks like a cars and coffee event out here, maybe "boats and crude?"

 

[Ko-nsx]

Here are a few

 

[Miner]

Guys i'm still out here and at this point ya'll know more tha we do!!:smile:

It seriously looks like a cars and coffee event out here, maybe "boats and crude?"

Kelley,

Be safe and get that butt plug in.

Miner

 

[Ko-nsx]

Kelley,

Be safe and get that butt plug in.

Miner

I will and thanks. if they decide to electrically power the butt plug, thats were i come in.:biggrin:

 

[swerve2007]

Wouldn't the fact that this hasn't happened in the GOM before indicate that these guys kind of have a clue what they are doing?

sorry but in cases like this even one is too many- once again- we are not talking about safety devices on the rigs but on the sea-floor independent of the rig's signals etc.

edit: even the 'slimy media' are now focusing the 'blame' to the aforementioned safety upgrade that was voted down thanks to the lobbying of industry.

does anyone have an explanation why did the 'ice' begin to accumulate on the 'dome' but not on other equipment?

 

[Ko-nsx]

sorry but in cases like this even one is too many- once again- we are not talking about safety devices on the rigs but on the sea-floor independent of the rig's signals etc.

edit: even the 'slimy media' are now focusing the 'blame' to the aforementioned safety upgrade that was voted down thanks to the lobbying of industry.

does anyone have an explanation why did the 'ice' begin to accumulate on the 'dome' but not on other equipment?

The ice accumulated inside the dome i believe. Nitrates is the cause of the freezing. Can you shed some light on the safety upgrade theory? We are lowering our LMRP now.

 

[swerve2007]

Can you shed some light on the safety upgrade theory?

see post#5. over the few days i heard that quoted several times but nobody is getting into technical specifics.

 

[Swift]

I heard a story that may not make the workers/safety look good..

When drilling sometimes there are numerous small gas pockets that set off some sort of alarm, apparently it may happen so frequently that someone will shut it off completely thereby giving no warning when a larger gas pocket forms...

This is just one theory of why the actual explosion happened.

 

[Ko-nsx]

I heard a story that may not make the workers/safety look good..

When drilling sometimes there are numerous small gas pockets that set off some sort of alarm, apparently it may happen so frequently that someone will shut it off completely thereby giving no warning when a larger gas pocket forms...

This is just one theory of why the actual explosion happened.

We get gas all the time when drilling. If you get mud coming back through the riser, then that lets you know you have gas. If its a lot of gas its gonna blow out quick. its very messy. The mud weight keeps the gas from reaching the rig among other things. I'd like to spill the beans as to what happened, it would probably not be in my best interest job wise.:smile:
i am trying to keep you guys in the loop as far as what info we get.

 

[Ko-nsx]

sorry but in cases like this even one is too many- once again- we are not talking about safety devices on the rigs but on the sea-floor independent of the rig's signals etc.

There is a lot of pipe work on the sea floor. Most of that is controlled with tree from co's like FMC. The trees flow the wells. The rigs hook up to well head with the BOP/LMRP. The BOP is lowered with riser pipe and that was the funnel for the mud and gas. I believe the well the Horizon was drilling was to be cemented or plugged, the later to be redrilled and flowed.

 

[Mr Payne]

sorry but in cases like this even one is too many- once again- we are not talking about safety devices on the rigs but on the sea-floor independent of the rig's signals etc.

edit: even the 'slimy media' are now focusing the 'blame' to the aforementioned safety upgrade that was voted down thanks to the lobbying of industry.

does anyone have an explanation why did the 'ice' begin to accumulate on the 'dome' but not on other equipment?

So basically you expect perfection and nothing less? I'm sorry. That never happens in real life.

See: Titanic, Space Shuttle, any plane every built, etc...

 

[Miner]

We get gas all the time when drilling. If you get mud coming back through the riser, then that lets you know you have gas. If its a lot of gas its gonna blow out quick. its very messy. The mud weight keeps the gas from reaching the rig among other things. I'd like to spill the beans as to what happened, it would probably not be in my best interest job wise.:smile:
i am trying to keep you guys in the loop as far as what info we get.

Kelley,

You can't tell us. Think of all the second guessing and arm chair quarterbacking from people who have no clue about how complex rigs are. They'd have nothing to speculate on, the talk radio airwaves would go silent.:biggrin: Then the communists would come in and take over. I saw it on an afternoon special once.:biggrin:
I hope the extra work doesn't keep you stuck out for Spring Craze. I wish I could hop a flight to Houston for that.

 

[yojack1]

So basically you expect perfection and nothing less? I'm sorry. That never happens in real life.

See: Titanic, Space Shuttle, any plane every built, etc...

swearv has stated over and over that it's not the failure of anything other than the short cuts taken, that has made a crisis that didn't have to happen even worse. He is not asking for perfection. So by comparing it to those other things mentioned, you just proved taking shortcuts and saving a couple of bucks can lead to disasters and the consequences will have to be explained. I think it's simple enough to understand without beating it to death!

Jack

 

[swerve2007]

just to change the subject a bit-
did you catch BP's press release how this operation is hurting their profits and they may have to raise gas prices?