Take a look at BEAM, aka Jim Beam or Beam brands. Beverage stocks have held up very well overall.
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Stock market - look up above
- Thread starter Ultraman
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I sold quite a few stocks after the big bounce on Wednesday.
I think Ford is still a good value and is trading up 4% today.
I also think Boeing has some good growth potential.
I think Ford is still a good value and is trading up 4% today.
I also think Boeing has some good growth potential.
I agree with BigD on BA. With the EU dealing with the debt and credit crisis it's an opportunity for Boeing to grab some orders away from Airbus. We're also in an airplane updating cycle, especially with the introduction of the Dreamliner. I'm long on BA and ATI due to these reasons.
I still think NFLX is an extremely risky stock. Unless you're doing some quick trading I wouldn't hold this name for the long term, I just think too many uncertainties in it's future.
For the financial sector I do like MS, looks like it has a lot of value at the current quotation. I've picked up some in the last month, but you gotta be patient because this one fluctuate a lot based on the development with the EU debt crisis.
Other ones I like currently are:
HD - They recently reported a nice quarter. We also got some upside surprise on the Oct. housing sales, so looks like there's a glimpse of hope on real estate recovery in the coming year (finally!) and it'll be good news for HD.
I'm looking very closely at JOYG too, it has rebounded very nicely and I think it could be a take-over target, similar to what happened to Bucyrus.
I like SBUX too, it's holding very strong and every time I go for a latte I see lots of people in the stores these days. I think the stock could do well in the coming year.
I'm out. France's Sarkosy (?sp) says austerity measures alone will force Europe into a recession. Germany's Merkel says Europe's finances will take years to repair (years they don't have). The central banks are agreeing to increase liquidity which isn't even the problem. Europe's problem is lack of solvency or too much debt. You don't sober up the drunk by giving him more alcohol. Printing more money never cured any economic problem - ever. If it was that simple why would we ever have a problem? Sooner or later Europe will have to pay up. I don't want to be long stocks when it happens. When will it happen? My bet is sooner than later.
With EU debt crisis still lingering and by getting good and bad news on alternate days I think the market is confused which way to go. Although I still don't like the financial sector but I can't believe GS has fallen under $100 again ...
DECK down more than 10% today due to analyst down grade. Maybe a good buying opportunity !
Level II question for you guys.
I use TD for trading. In the Level II monitor, I noticed that they don't show all level II data.
For example, if I put in a limit order, it will show up, but if it is GTC, it will not be there the next morning.
This is only obvious on very low volume stocks. High volume stocks trade so fast you can't really track this.
My question is, why does the data disappear? Is there a way to see the entire set of level II data, all pending orders that are on the market?
Maybe I don't fully understand level II yet.
I use TD for trading. In the Level II monitor, I noticed that they don't show all level II data.
For example, if I put in a limit order, it will show up, but if it is GTC, it will not be there the next morning.
This is only obvious on very low volume stocks. High volume stocks trade so fast you can't really track this.
My question is, why does the data disappear? Is there a way to see the entire set of level II data, all pending orders that are on the market?
Maybe I don't fully understand level II yet.
The stock market for the last couple of years doesn't have any substance and is heading in a path of potential destruction. I'm not saying that destruction is likely, rather, I am suggesting a higher possibility than it has been in the past.
Although the stock market has always been foundational on some form of speculation, the old companies use to have assets and capital to support it. Now you have crazy P/E ratios and sophisticated schemes to inflate revenues.
Today, the ethics of companies are very skeptical and can/will do anything to fudge financial numbers. Also, the big traders/banks/financial managers are willing do anything to make a buck in the short term at the expense of the financial system. With retirement plans now heavily invested into stocks, this puts more pressure on financial managers to fudge numbers and speculate. There have always been cheats and a greedy few in the past, but the difference in today's market is that the elaborate schemes involve an entire management organization and the US government turns a blind eye or aids in their scams.
Moreover, the past management did not readily execute mass layoffs or outsource divisions simply to increase profits. Management today only worry about short term profits for themselves and are not concerned about the overall health of the company or the country.
The stock market will never generate the returns like it has in the past, and a huge correction is likely. The hardest part is to pin point when this will happen. I hope I am wrong here.
But as long as the government and the stakeholders can convince investors that the market is healthy, while they skim off the top for their own financial gain, the market will continue a steady course. It's not until their scheme is uncovered that it all comes unraveling down. (Doesn't this sound like the housing bubble, internet bubble, biotech bubble, etc. You had big banks telling investors that housing derivatives were great investments, while profiting in the backend from the fraud.)
I am not advocating that stocks are a bad investment, instead I suggesting caution. I would not count on the stock market to produce long term gains like it has in the past and I would recommend more diversification of assets.
Although the stock market has always been foundational on some form of speculation, the old companies use to have assets and capital to support it. Now you have crazy P/E ratios and sophisticated schemes to inflate revenues.
Today, the ethics of companies are very skeptical and can/will do anything to fudge financial numbers. Also, the big traders/banks/financial managers are willing do anything to make a buck in the short term at the expense of the financial system. With retirement plans now heavily invested into stocks, this puts more pressure on financial managers to fudge numbers and speculate. There have always been cheats and a greedy few in the past, but the difference in today's market is that the elaborate schemes involve an entire management organization and the US government turns a blind eye or aids in their scams.
Moreover, the past management did not readily execute mass layoffs or outsource divisions simply to increase profits. Management today only worry about short term profits for themselves and are not concerned about the overall health of the company or the country.
The stock market will never generate the returns like it has in the past, and a huge correction is likely. The hardest part is to pin point when this will happen. I hope I am wrong here.
But as long as the government and the stakeholders can convince investors that the market is healthy, while they skim off the top for their own financial gain, the market will continue a steady course. It's not until their scheme is uncovered that it all comes unraveling down. (Doesn't this sound like the housing bubble, internet bubble, biotech bubble, etc. You had big banks telling investors that housing derivatives were great investments, while profiting in the backend from the fraud.)
I am not advocating that stocks are a bad investment, instead I suggesting caution. I would not count on the stock market to produce long term gains like it has in the past and I would recommend more diversification of assets.
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"House prices ALWAYS go up"
"The stock market ALWAYS goes up over the long term"
This chart is interesting IMO. Curious if anyone has ever seen a chart of the stock market like this. Probably not something cnbc wants you to see. WHAT IF, the stock market reverts to its inflation adjusted mean(negative 80%, Dow 12,000 to Dow 2,500)?
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"House prices ALWAYS go up"
"The stock market ALWAYS goes up over the long term"
This chart is interesting IMO. Curious if anyone has ever seen a chart of the stock market like this. Probably not something cnbc wants you to see. WHAT IF, the stock market reverts to its inflation adjusted mean(negative 80%, Dow 12,000 to Dow 2,500)?
What inflation data are they using?
I am of the opinion that government reported inflation data is incorrect. If you put in a more accurate (higher) inflation number, it may bring the market back in line.
I think that chart is just using the lower 'official' numbers. The guy who makes those charts does use shadow stats sometimes, but he states when he does. You make a good point though, I would like to see the same chart with shadow stats inflation numbers.
This is the article it's pulled from: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/Dow-1906-and-2007-Peak-Comparison.php
The guys name is Doug Short, and he has a lot of interesting, although bearish, articles:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/
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Nice open day for 2012.
Cheers.
Cheers.
Today S&P closed above 1,300, cheers.
Eyes are on the progress of the Greek debt resolution this week.
Eyes are on the progress of the Greek debt resolution this week.
Fitch and S&P both think Greece will default, the question is will it be orderly? Who knows? The order of defaults by concensus will be:
Greece - Portugal - Italy (estimated by levels of debt and slowing economies). The best bets seem to be US corporations with low debt and flush with capital balance sheets. It's as tuff a market as I've ever seen and makes investing precarious. Good Luck!
Greece - Portugal - Italy (estimated by levels of debt and slowing economies). The best bets seem to be US corporations with low debt and flush with capital balance sheets. It's as tuff a market as I've ever seen and makes investing precarious. Good Luck!
There are a lot of variables at work here. I'll try to provide some clarification but I've only used professional software and am not familiar with TD Ameritrade's particular Level II setup:
The stock market is extremely complex. The ways you can send, hide, position, and merge trades is always increasing. Does your Level II window tell you if your order is routed through ARCA, NYSE, BATS, AMEX, etc.? Different exchanges' orders are displayed differently and with varying degrees of variability and cost. NYSE is the most straight forward and a limit/GTC order will stay indefinitely. They do not disappear. Your particular system may be cancelling them and you may or may not have control over that.
When I traded professionally, I had between 25-100 pending trades "hanging" at all times in case the market did something "unexpected" (combination of hidden BATS/ARCA orders, limit NYSE orders to the specialist, etc.). Would have driven me insane if I had to reenter them everyday.
No one, including people like me that used to spend $2-3k a month for the best software/quote availability possible, can see all* orders. Some orders are absolutely hidden until you see the print on the tape.
The only real benefit to a level II on extremely high volume stocks is you can still gauge the order flow to a certain extent. You can discern which exchange is moving the security and sometimes how. For instance, even on XOM, if you see the specialist with stack of huge quotes at 69.98, 69.99, and 70, you know that those quotes are unlikely to be bull $hit and you can probably get out on those shares.
Back during the financial crisis, the specialist came in at 2:45 every day for 2-3 weeks buying financials. I am talking 100,000 lot after 100,000 lot. By the third day he did it, we all had our eyes on JPM/WFC etc. waiting for the specialist to start creeping up the book towards the offer. As soon as I saw the big size coming through on the NYSE, I would bash the buy button until I ran out of capital. Ah, the good old days. Now that sort of activity is very rare, people use hidden orders or show a size of 1,000 shares but you can pound it with 25,000 shares and it'll still stay there just printing away. That guy is disguising his order as a 100 lot even though there are "infinite" shares behind it; very easy to do.
Understanding order flow is part art and part science. I rarely used technical analysis and completely ignored all indicators - I focused on order flow. My specialty was in low volume stocks where things are less convoluted and it's easier to identify the 3-10 players involved (instead of 10,000 players).
sahtt, excellent information! Thank you.
I can see the routing, typically mine are AMEX through TD.
I did notice the persistent 100s that would stay there for a long period of time, regardless of volume.
How can a layman do this? Is it software that enters it instantaneously in small orders to hide the actual numbers?
I can see the routing, typically mine are AMEX through TD.
I did notice the persistent 100s that would stay there for a long period of time, regardless of volume.
How can a layman do this? Is it software that enters it instantaneously in small orders to hide the actual numbers?
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I think we're at the top right now.
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