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TSLA stock buy or stay away?
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so it looks like he listened to counsel and made a deal.......so what do we think the stock will do Monday?https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/t...gning-as-board-chairman/ar-BBNIvg1?li=BBnb7Kz
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Tidy three day cash burn
Thursday SEC action announced............settlement rapidly reached Saturday? Ahhhh, just $40 million of apparently someone else's money.
"Tesla chief executive Elon Musk agreed on Saturday to pay a $20 million fine and step down as board chairman as part of a settlement with the Securities & Commission that he misled investors about his plans to take the company private.
Tesla will separately pay another $20 million...... "
How and when this entity turns a dollar in profit remains to be seen.
Thursday SEC action announced............settlement rapidly reached Saturday? Ahhhh, just $40 million of apparently someone else's money.
"Tesla chief executive Elon Musk agreed on Saturday to pay a $20 million fine and step down as board chairman as part of a settlement with the Securities & Commission that he misled investors about his plans to take the company private.
Tesla will separately pay another $20 million...... "
How and when this entity turns a dollar in profit remains to be seen.
Haha, I started this thread back in 2017, luckily I didn’t buy any but did pick up some Amazon in 2017. That would really give this stock a major boost if AAPL pick it up.
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Well my goodness gracious! It cold outside and I was kind of bored so my mind was wandering .... and it landed in a weird place called 'how about that Tesla'. So, remembering this thread I decided to check the stock price and holy crap. TSLA is up about 90% in the last 3 months. If I had bought and sold correctly (big if) I could have shuffled off to Luxembourg, or Monaca, or St Kitts or ......
Not quite sure what the cause for the bounce is. Maybe its because Mr. M. has avoided saying or doing anything strange in the last bit - at least car wise. Perhaps its because they managed to turn a profit in the 3rd qtr (but not for the year?). I think at the current stock price the capitalization of Tesla is higher than any other North American auto maker - go figure.
File this under the missed again category.
Not quite sure what the cause for the bounce is. Maybe its because Mr. M. has avoided saying or doing anything strange in the last bit - at least car wise. Perhaps its because they managed to turn a profit in the 3rd qtr (but not for the year?). I think at the current stock price the capitalization of Tesla is higher than any other North American auto maker - go figure.
File this under the missed again category.
I am assuming that 'astonishing' refers to the big bump (and subsequent dump) of the Tesla stock price last week? Even with the mid week dump, its still way up from the beginning of the year. I am sort of coming to the conclusion that the Tesla stock price has become a thing unto its own increasingly unrelated to the real activities of the Tesla car company.
Maybe Mr. Musk needs to consider switching the SpaceX Falcon launch vehicle to the same magic vapour fuel that is propelling the Tesla share price.
So TSLA (I got in at $263 avg /sh) was the only stock that held up my portfolio today LOL
Tesla just announced that they have now built 1,000,000 cars so the question about whether people will buy EVs has been settled. Honda building a 2 seat sports car as a Halo vehicle in 2017 never made any sense because the market, especially young people, couldn't care less about them. However had the NC1 been a full electric with the kind of mind-blowing performance that EV cars can provide I'll bet the sales would be better than they are now. This kind of backward looking thinking is why, going forward, Tesla stock will far outperform Honda and all the rest of the legacy OEMs stock.
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I'm not sure if I mentioned this here but Tesla's biggest advantage that most people don't know about is their compilation of certain data like Human Attention levels while driving, human driving behaviors, human input/outputs, travel patterns, it's essentially limitless. They track so much shit and store everything. They've been doing this FOREVER. When it comes to autonomous driving they are so far ahead it's not even a competition. The only one coming close and coming quickly is Open Pilot.
No traditional auto manufacturer can even compete. It seems now that the market is accepting the stock trades more like AMZN than GM, this will be interesting. I haven't followed but I wonder if they're still the highest shorted stock on wallstreet.
No traditional auto manufacturer can even compete. It seems now that the market is accepting the stock trades more like AMZN than GM, this will be interesting. I haven't followed but I wonder if they're still the highest shorted stock on wallstreet.
I think the question about whether people will purchase electric cars and whether the TESLA is a good or bad car is decoupled from the side show of the Tesla price. I think the question is whether Tesla could ever achieve profits that would warrant the stock price on a sustained basis. Yes, Tesla is selling cars and based upon there last complete financial statement they had a revenue of $24.5 B which translated to revenue per share of $138. However, that is revenue not earnings. The earnings per share is -$5.
I am kind of old school in my thinking. Given the current interest rate climate, for a mature company I would probably like to see a price / earnings ratio of around 20:1. When Tesla hit $917 that would require an earnings per share of $45. Tesla has been kicking around for several years now so they are really out of that incubator phase and their technology would probably qualify as moderately mature. They should be transitioning into that regular cycle of new model development and investment that all other mature car companies deal with. Increasing annual sales would hopefully shift their fixed / variable costs per unit to the point that they actually show positive earnings per share. However, given their current maturity of development I am struggling with how they could ever increase their volumes and shift their margins sufficiently to move their P/E from -$5 to $45 per share.
I don't know anything about Tesla's production margins and how their costs would change with increasing production, so even if I had a view as to their future market sales I am not going to forecast what I think a future stable share price should be. However, I would be prepared to bet one whole beer that it will be less than $917. I will also bet one further beer that it will be significantly less that $917.
This is what makes TSLA interesting. It's grossly overvalued to some folks and a bargain for others. Depending on which camp you subscribe to. Using an AMZN valuation model TSLA sort of makes sense. AMZN is its own beast. AWS is a business share that's a beast within a beast. Yet, I stopped looking at AMZN's P/E a long time ago. If you subscribe to TSLA like you value GM or Ford.. then sure.. it's grossly overvalued. I obviously don't know what will be the ultimate path for TSLA but it's been a fun ride to watch.
These days I have to admit I look more into the CEOs than I do the P&L - will that get me into trouble? probably... Honda leadership sucks. Toyota leadership is pretty good. Musk is a beast. So is Bezos. I don't even know who's the latest Ivy league CEO on top of GM.
In terms of TSLA i'm more worried about overall consumer buying power for cars in general. Gas prices are low and will remain low. EV credits are drying up.
The initial valuation debacle of WeWork was good for the industry. Initial valuations are coming back down to Earth.
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I agree with the points made by RYU in his recent posts but would like point out that Mary Barra is the best CEO of GM in a long time and I would not be the least bit surprised to see her make the company an EV powerhouse - they certainly have the engineering chops to do it. The only question is whether the UAW albatross around the company's neck and the bean counters will find a way to derail the whole thing.
I would be cautious using Amazon as a comparison for Tesla. Right now Tesla is a car company. Its not clear to me of that they can parley information on driving habits into additional value. I am also a little under sold on autonomous driving. I live in a place where crud, mud, snow and sleet accumulations regularly leave autonomously acting driving assist systems dead in the water.
Amazon is becoming a multi headed hydra. It has been a while since I looked at the details; but, when I checked the retail marketplace part of the business was not a big money maker. The cash cow was their dominance in cloud services. That said, they have the cash artillery to branch out into other activities such as the Prime Video, satellite internet, electric delivery vans, autonomous cars (huh?) and who knows what else. All of this stuff does start to make the company look a bit like an old school diversified company. Those kind of companies (GE et al) became untrendy a while ago; but, investors appear to be willing to go with it for now. Amazon has a lot of different irons in the fire and some of them might pan out. Amazon currently has a price earnings in the 80 range; but, at least it is positive and you can see that some of those irons in the fire might generate new earnings to support what right now looks to be a rather generous valuation. I am not seeing that potential with Tesla.
Amazon is becoming a multi headed hydra. It has been a while since I looked at the details; but, when I checked the retail marketplace part of the business was not a big money maker. The cash cow was their dominance in cloud services. That said, they have the cash artillery to branch out into other activities such as the Prime Video, satellite internet, electric delivery vans, autonomous cars (huh?) and who knows what else. All of this stuff does start to make the company look a bit like an old school diversified company. Those kind of companies (GE et al) became untrendy a while ago; but, investors appear to be willing to go with it for now. Amazon has a lot of different irons in the fire and some of them might pan out. Amazon currently has a price earnings in the 80 range; but, at least it is positive and you can see that some of those irons in the fire might generate new earnings to support what right now looks to be a rather generous valuation. I am not seeing that potential with Tesla.
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Tesla is already more than a car company. As RYU pointed out the massive amounts of data they have collected with the cars gives them a lead in autonomous driving and because AI is essential to accomplishing that they will become a leader in AI and will then find other uses for the technology. I also think that their battery technology will eventually become a bigger part of the company than the cars; as an example the energy storage power pack in Australia. The acquisition of Maxwell is certainly part of that strategy.
Great point about momentum stocks. In today's market about 70% of trading is done by algorithms. Algorithms are absolutely in tune with momentum. What do you think is causing all this volatility swings? It's partly why I think the traditional concepts (i.e. fundamentals) of trading is in a constant tug of war with what some of us might see as irrational technical trading (i.e. momemtum/psychology/technical). I'm not sure which is the best money making trading strategy. If I did.. I would be on a beach in Tahiti 
I also see AMZN as a slow but long term momentum stock. Most of these no-profit tech stocks are to me. Psychology/momentum clearly has their place in long term stock investment portfolios but everyone has their own comfortable risk tolerance.
The one aspect that's interesting and different between TSLA vs. AMZN is Amazon owns AWS and most of it's current and upcoming subsidiaries (IIRC). Tesla itself doesn't own SpaceX, the Boring Company, etc.. it's just that Elon Musk is the majority shareholder.
Looking at the TSLA price action yesterday it seems TSLA didn't follow the uptrend. I found that interesting. Seems to suggest high speculative trading is in play again. I don't know enough.. I didn't watch TSLA news. I just saw the market nearly hitting +2000. Profit taking on Monday would be logical.
I also see AMZN as a slow but long term momentum stock. Most of these no-profit tech stocks are to me. Psychology/momentum clearly has their place in long term stock investment portfolios but everyone has their own comfortable risk tolerance.
The one aspect that's interesting and different between TSLA vs. AMZN is Amazon owns AWS and most of it's current and upcoming subsidiaries (IIRC). Tesla itself doesn't own SpaceX, the Boring Company, etc.. it's just that Elon Musk is the majority shareholder.
Looking at the TSLA price action yesterday it seems TSLA didn't follow the uptrend. I found that interesting. Seems to suggest high speculative trading is in play again. I don't know enough.. I didn't watch TSLA news. I just saw the market nearly hitting +2000. Profit taking on Monday would be logical.
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